Crafts · The Shadow Collection
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The Shadow Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted About the craft Craft 1742033 · ways to build: 5 The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profit Average profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment. +731.62₽
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam». 1 461.38₽
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances. 2 193.00₽
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment. +50.1%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input. 48%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 3 739.87₽ · profit at most −1 546.87₽ (at most -41.4%) · chance of profit at most 22%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear) × 1 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 39.50 → 85.32 ₽
G3SG1 | Murky (Minimal Wear) × 1 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 65.40 → 141.26 ₽
UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) × 8 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.59 1356.48 → 3513.28 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:
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To calculator I have items
profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −683 ₽ Which itemsIf these items are never sold, the profit is at least −683 ₽: M4A4 | Griffin (Factory New)

Craft variants Craft variants The same main collection (or the second one) with another partner — a different collection for balance. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.

+ a third collection
Variant 1 this one The Shadow Collection + The Vanguard Collection
+731.62 ₽ +50.1% chance of profit 48%
expensive: M4A4 | Griffin (Factory New) · 6 288.88 ₽ · chance 22%
profit on prices without salesat least −683 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 5 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0740
  • 1× G3SG1 | Murky (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0740
  • 8× UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0740
Variant 2 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection
+486.75 ₽ +58.6% chance of profit 92%
expensive: AWP | Black Box (Factory New) · 2 128.47 ₽ · chance 30%
rare inputs
  • 1× MAC-10 | Rangeen (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0056
  • 9× R8 Revolver | Monarch (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0765
Variant 3 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection
+3 582.69 ₽ +168.1% chance of profit 30%
expensive: Tec-9 | Whiteout (Factory New) · 17 131.20 ₽ · chance 30%
profit on prices without salesat least −1 557 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 9 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× MAC-10 | Rangeen (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0075
  • 9× XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0075
Variant 4 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection
+2 433.18 ₽ +74.6% chance of profit 70%
expensive: Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Factory New) · 9 803.48 ₽ · chance 23%
profit on prices without salesat least −3 019 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 3× MAC-10 | Rangeen (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0036
  • 7× MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New) buy 0.0200–0.0225
Variant 5 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Shadow Collection
+1 839.58 ₽ +74.1% chance of profit 38%
expensive: Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New) · 15 660.06 ₽ · chance 18%
profit on prices without salesat least −1 371 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 3 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy. pricier variants exist Pattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
  • 1× UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0745
  • 9× XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0839
Variant 6 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection
+1 751.51 ₽ +72.8% chance of profit 36%
expensive: Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New) · 15 660.06 ₽ · chance 18%
profit on prices without salesat least −1 302 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 3 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy. pricier variants exist Pattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
  • 1× MAC-10 | Rangeen (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0057
  • 9× XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0857

How to build Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

5% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1
SCAR-20 | Green Marine
Minimal Wear
buy 0.0700–0.0740
39.50 ₽
at 39.50
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.074093f′ (normalized) 0.092616wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 125 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
×1
G3SG1 | Murky
Minimal Wear
buy 0.0700–0.0740
65.40 ₽
at 65.40
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.074093f′ (normalized) 0.296373wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 63 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
×8
UMP-45 | Delusion
Minimal Wear
buy 0.0700–0.0740
1 356.48 ₽
at 169.56
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.074093f′ (normalized) 0.048598wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 79 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0, new per day — can't tell yet · little data: 0.0 d.
Set · 10 pcs 1 461.38 ₽ +731.62 (+50.1%) Average float of the set average normalized 0.077777678 result 0.037889, 0.062222, 0.052889, 0.077778, 0.070000, 0.077778, 0.048222, 0.070000 «No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.

What you get 8 outcomes

  • Profitable outcome 48%
  • Losing outcome 52%
at a loss
Glock-18 | Grinder
Factory New
858.36 ₽ 22.50%
Steam Glock-18 | Grinder (Factory New)net 746.40 you get 0.037889The Vanguard Collection sells 64 a week sell now to a buy order: 859.66 ₽ (you get 747.53)) · buy orders: 14620
in profit
best
M4A4 | Griffin
Factory New
7 232.21 ₽ 22.50%
price without deals
Steam M4A4 | Griffin (Factory New)net 6288.88 you get 0.062222The Vanguard Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 6 446.96 ₽ (you get 5 606.05)) · buy orders: 5075
in profit
M4A1-S | Basilisk
Factory New
2 494.55 ₽ 22.50%
Steam M4A1-S | Basilisk (Factory New)net 2169.17 you get 0.052889The Vanguard Collection sells 40 a week sell now to a buy order: 2 485.27 ₽ (you get 2 161.10)) · buy orders: 4448
at a loss
Sawed-Off | Highwayman
Minimal Wear
257.11 ₽ 22.50%
Steam Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Minimal Wear)net 223.57 you get 0.077778The Vanguard Collection sells 20 a week sell now to a buy order: 213.24 ₽ (you get 185.42)) · buy orders: 2895
in profit
Galil AR | Stone Cold
Factory New
1 970.27 ₽ 2.50%
Steam Galil AR | Stone Cold (Factory New)net 1713.28 you get 0.070000 sells ≈18 a week — 6 of 7 days measured sell now to a buy order: 2 001.41 ₽ (you get 1 740.35)) · buy orders: 4669
at a loss
worst
M249 | Nebula Crusader
Minimal Wear
227.02 ₽ 2.50%
Steam M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear)net 197.41 you get 0.077778 sells 60 a week sell now to a buy order: 225.67 ₽ (you get 196.23)) · buy orders: 7581
at a loss
MP7 | Special Delivery
Factory New
466.76 ₽ 2.50%
Steam MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New)net 405.88 you get 0.048222 sells 26 a week sell now to a buy order: 506.81 ₽ (you get 440.70)) · buy orders: 4069
at a loss
P250 | Wingshot
Factory New
633.92 ₽ 2.50%
Steam P250 | Wingshot (Factory New)net 551.23 you get 0.070000 sells 16 a week sell now to a buy order: 600.52 ₽ (you get 522.19)) · buy orders: 5454
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