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The Shadow Collection + The Wildfire Collection

Restricted → Classified

Average profit +2 227.66₽

Invest 3 222.40₽

Average return 5 450.06₽

ROI +69.1%

Chance of profit 67%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 7 674.21₽ · profit at most −2 224.15₽ (at most -29.0%) · chance of profit at most 30%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear) × 7 10% of the wear window fits at least ×2.55 1706.74 → 4352.19 ₽

MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New) × 2 10% of the wear window fits at least ×2.21 963.98 → 2130.40 ₽

MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New) × 1 10% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 551.68 → 1191.63 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −1 420 ₽

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Shadow Collection + The Wildfire Collection

+2 227.66 ₽ +69.1% chance of profit 67%

expensive: AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Factory New) · 10 786.44 ₽ · chance 30%

profit on prices without salesat least −1 420 ₽

7× M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0783
2× MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0073
1× MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0073

Variant 2 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection

+2 016.83 ₽ +39.4% chance of profit 90%

expensive: M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch (Factory New) · 7 902.74 ₽ · chance 45%

sells slowly

1× MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0058
9× CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0767

Variant 3 The Spectrum 2 Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection

+736.96 ₽ +41.9% chance of profit 80%

expensive: M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Factory New) · 3 681.36 ₽ · chance 20%

sells slowly

4× M249 | Nebula Crusader (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1636
6× UMP-45 | Exposure (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0041

Variant 4 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection

+644.10 ₽ +34.3% chance of profit 93%

expensive: M4A4 | Hellish (Minimal Wear) · 2 681.68 ₽ · chance 45%

rare inputs

1× MP7 | Special Delivery (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0752
7× Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1650
2× Tec-9 | Whiteout (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1650

Variant 5 The Spectrum Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection

+610.60 ₽ +32.6% chance of profit 67%

expensive: M4A1-S | Decimator (Factory New) · 3 784.14 ₽ · chance 17%

sells slowly

3× M249 | Nebula Crusader (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1635
2× MP7 | Special Delivery (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0747
5× M249 | Emerald Poison Dart (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0041

Variant 6 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection

+13 194.14 ₽ +59.1% chance of profit 70%

expensive: AK-47 | Red Laminate (Factory New) · 55 811.32 ₽ · chance 35%

profit on prices without salesat least −21 758 ₽

3× MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0035
6× Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0740
1× P250 | Splash (Factory New) buy 0.0600–0.0605

How to build

10% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 10% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×7

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0783

1 706.74 ₽

at 243.82

Steam

×2

MP7 | Special Delivery

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0073

963.98 ₽

at 481.99

Steam

×1

MAG-7 | Praetorian

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0073

551.68 ₽

at 551.68

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 3 222.40 ₽ +2 227.66 (+69.1%)

profit on prices without sales at least −1 608 ₽

10% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 10% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×7

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0779

1 706.74 ₽

at 243.82

Steam

×1

MP7 | Special Delivery

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0069

481.99 ₽

at 481.99

Steam

×2

MAG-7 | Praetorian

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0069

1 103.36 ₽

at 551.68

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 3 292.09 ₽ +2 092.52 (+63.6%)

profit on prices without sales at least −3 174 ₽

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

MP7 | Special Delivery

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0750

171.98 ₽

at 171.98

Steam

×1

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0750

243.82 ₽

at 243.82

Steam

×2

MAG-7 | Praetorian

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0750

425.58 ₽

at 212.79

Steam

×6

MAG-7 | Praetorian

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0044

3 310.08 ₽

at 551.68

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 4 151.46 ₽ +840.46 (+20.2%)

What you get 6 outcomes

Profitable outcome 37%
Losing outcome 33%
About break-even 30%

in profit

best

AK-47 | Frontside Misty

Factory New

12 404.41 ₽ 30.00%

price without deals

Steam

about break-even

G3SG1 | Flux

Factory New

3 800.57 ₽ 30.00%

Steam

at a loss

SSG 08 | Big Iron

Factory New

2 823.51 ₽ 30.00%

Steam

in profit

AWP | Elite Build

Factory New

7 562.28 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon

Factory New

6 649.47 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

worst

Nova | Hyper Beast

Factory New

2 558.80 ₽ 3.33%

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +1 411.25 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +1 968.73 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Shadow Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 23 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1727841 · The Falchion Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 2 396.68₽ · invest 2 769.23₽
profit on prices without salesat least −905 ₽ float out of reach rare inputs

Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) instead of MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075085 instead of 0.078348; MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New): float at most 0.004450 instead of 0.007304
Craft 1741045 · The Revolution Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 2 321.46₽ · invest 2 753.46₽
profit on prices without salesat least −914 ₽ float out of reach rare inputs

MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested) instead of MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077283 instead of 0.078348; MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New): float at most 0.006373 instead of 0.007304
Craft 1731473 · The Gamma 2 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 2 315.81₽ · invest 2 894.34₽
profit on prices without salesat least −920 ₽ rare inputs

MAG-7 | Petroglyph (Factory New) instead of MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.078317 instead of 0.078348; MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New): float at most 0.007277 instead of 0.007304
Craft 1732170 · The Gamma Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 2 309.62₽ · invest 2 988.77₽
profit on prices without salesat least −926 ₽ rare inputs

P90 | Chopper (Factory New) instead of MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.078708 instead of 0.078348; MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New): float at most 0.007619 instead of 0.007304
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profit on prices without salesat least −1 250 ₽ rare inputs

Nova | Gila (Factory New) instead of MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077711 instead of 0.078348; MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New): float at most 0.006747 instead of 0.007304
Craft 1728772 · The Fever Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 2 304.66₽ · invest 2 819.22₽
profit on prices without salesat least −931 ₽ rare inputs

Zeus x27 | Tosai (Factory New) instead of MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.078871 instead of 0.078348; MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New): float at most 0.007762 instead of 0.007304
Craft 1730574 · The Gallery Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 2 303.52₽ · invest 2 954.44₽
profit on prices without salesat least −1 117 ₽ rare inputs

P90 | Randy Rush (Factory New) instead of MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.078939 instead of 0.078348; MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New): float at most 0.007821 instead of 0.007304
Craft 1723021 · The Clutch Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 2 297.57₽ · invest 2 804.60₽
profit on prices without salesat least −938 ₽ rare inputs

Negev | Lionfish (Factory New) instead of MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.078606 instead of 0.078348; MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New): float at most 0.007531 instead of 0.007304
Craft 1741971 · The Shadow Collection + The Spectrum Collection · profit 2 284.17₽ · invest 2 904.22₽
profit on prices without salesat least −952 ₽ rare inputs

M249 | Emerald Poison Dart (Factory New) instead of MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New)
Craft 1741908 · The Shadow Collection + The Snakebite Collection · profit 2 278.15₽ · invest 2 834.26₽
profit on prices without salesat least −1 060 ₽ rare inputs

Negev | dev_texture (Factory New) instead of MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.078795 instead of 0.078348; MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New): float at most 0.007696 instead of 0.007304
Craft 1736382 · The Kilowatt Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 2 275.68₽ · invest 2 791.72₽
profit on prices without salesat least −960 ₽ rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New) instead of MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.078742 instead of 0.078348; MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New): float at most 0.007649 instead of 0.007304
Craft 1724460 · The Danger Zone Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 2 249.31₽ · invest 2 856.91₽
profit on prices without salesat least −987 ₽ rare inputs

G3SG1 | Scavenger (Factory New) instead of MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.078795 instead of 0.078348; MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New): float at most 0.007696 instead of 0.007304
Craft 1715261 · The Boreal Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 2 247.41₽ · invest 2 977.31₽
profit on prices without salesat least −989 ₽ rare inputs

Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Factory New) instead of MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.078827 instead of 0.078348; MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New): float at most 0.007723 instead of 0.007304
Craft 1740682 · The Recoil Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 2 246.73₽ · invest 2 807.65₽
profit on prices without salesat least −989 ₽ rare inputs

M249 | Downtown (Factory New) instead of MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.078795 instead of 0.078348; MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New): float at most 0.007696 instead of 0.007304
Craft 1717964 · The CS20 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 2 245.81₽ · invest 2 913.63₽
profit on prices without salesat least −1 135 ₽ rare inputs

M249 | Aztec (Factory New) instead of MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.078939 instead of 0.078348; MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New): float at most 0.007821 instead of 0.007304
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profit on prices without salesat least −1 015 ₽ rare inputs

UMP-45 | Crimson Foil (Factory New) instead of MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.078842 instead of 0.078348; MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New): float at most 0.007737 instead of 0.007304
Craft 1732877 · The Genesis Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 2 209.91₽ · invest 3 000.72₽
profit on prices without salesat least −1 106 ₽ rare inputs

Nova | Ocular (Factory New) instead of MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.079182 instead of 0.078348; MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New): float at most 0.008034 instead of 0.007304
Craft 1739987 · The Prisma Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 2 209.09₽ · invest 2 830.72₽
profit on prices without salesat least −1 027 ₽ rare inputs

UMP-45 | Moonrise (Factory New) instead of MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.078179 instead of 0.078348; MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New): float at most 0.007156 instead of 0.007304
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profit on prices without salesat least −1 094 ₽ rare inputs

MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New) instead of MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.079182 instead of 0.078348; MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New): float at most 0.008034 instead of 0.007304
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profit on prices without salesat least −1 030 ₽ rare inputs

MP5-SD | Kitbash (Factory New) instead of MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.078998 instead of 0.078348; MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New): float at most 0.007873 instead of 0.007304
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profit on prices without salesat least −1 216 ₽ rare inputs

XM1014 | Black Tie (Factory New) instead of MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075965 instead of 0.078348; MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New): float at most 0.005219 instead of 0.007304
Craft 1741361 · The Revolver Case Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 2 171.67₽ · invest 3 050.75₽
profit on prices without salesat least −1 136 ₽ rare inputs

XM1014 | Teclu Burner (Factory New) instead of MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.078795 instead of 0.078348; MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New): float at most 0.007696 instead of 0.007304
Craft 1739605 · The Prisma 2 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 2 166.27₽ · invest 2 954.72₽
profit on prices without salesat least −1 070 ₽ rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Factory New) instead of MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.079182 instead of 0.078348; MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New): float at most 0.008034 instead of 0.007304

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Shadow Collection + The Wildfire Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 6 outcomes

More

How to build