Crafts · The Train Collection
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The Train Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted About the craft Craft 1743085 · ways to build: 5 The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profit Average profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment. +705.28₽
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam». 1 420.08₽
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances. 2 125.36₽
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment. +49.7%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input. 45%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 3 538.94₽ · profit at most −1 413.58₽ (at most -39.9%) · chance of profit at most 22%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Factory New) × 1 7% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 59.80 → 129.17 ₽
MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested) × 2 7% of the wear window fits at least ×2.21 173.36 → 383.13 ₽
UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) × 7 7% of the wear window fits at least ×2.55 1186.92 → 3026.65 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:
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To calculator I have items
profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −710 ₽ Which itemsIf these items are never sold, the profit is at least −710 ₽: M4A4 | Griffin (Factory New)

Craft variants Craft variants The same main collection (or the second one) with another partner — a different collection for balance. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.

+ a third collection
Variant 1 this one The Train Collection + The Vanguard Collection
+705.28 ₽ +49.7% chance of profit 45%
expensive: M4A4 | Griffin (Factory New) · 6 288.88 ₽ · chance 22%
profit on prices without salesat least −710 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 3 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0047
  • 2× MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1655
  • 7× UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0754
Variant 2 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection
+1 899.59 ₽ +68.1% chance of profit 60%
expensive: Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Factory New) · 9 803.48 ₽ · chance 20%
profit on prices without salesat least −2 774 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 4× Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0036
  • 6× MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New) buy 0.0200–0.0226
Variant 3 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Train Collection
+1 839.58 ₽ +74.1% chance of profit 38%
expensive: Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New) · 15 660.06 ₽ · chance 18%
profit on prices without salesat least −1 371 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 3 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy. pricier variants exist Pattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
  • 1× UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0745
  • 9× XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0839
Variant 4 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection
+1 710.15 ₽ +72.1% chance of profit 36%
expensive: Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New) · 15 660.06 ₽ · chance 18%
profit on prices without salesat least −1 343 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 3 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy. pricier variants exist Pattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
  • 1× Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0056
  • 9× XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0856
Variant 5 only The Vanguard Collection
+827.17 ₽ +54.1% chance of profit 50%
expensive: M4A4 | Griffin (Factory New) · 6 288.88 ₽ · chance 25%
profit on prices without salesat least −745 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 3 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 2× MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1626
  • 8× UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0744
Variant 6 The Wildfire Collection instead of The Train Collection
+776.63 ₽ +49.5% chance of profit 49%
expensive: M4A4 | Griffin (Factory New) · 6 288.88 ₽ · chance 22%
profit on prices without salesat least −707 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 3 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1618
  • 8× UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0741
  • 1× Tec-9 | Jambiya (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0741

How to build Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

7% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1
Sawed-Off | Amber Fade
Factory New
buy 0.0000–0.0047
59.80 ₽
at 59.80
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.004739f′ (normalized) 0.011848wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 702 · good ≈ 11
Market history: no data yet
×2
MAG-7 | Firestarter
Field-Tested
buy 0.1500–0.1655
173.36 ₽
at 86.68
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.165571f′ (normalized) 0.245516wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 104 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
×7
UMP-45 | Delusion
Minimal Wear
buy 0.0700–0.0754
1 186.92 ₽
at 169.56
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.075416f′ (normalized) 0.053159wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 79 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0, new per day — can't tell yet · little data: 0.0 d.
Set · 10 pcs 1 420.08 ₽ +705.28 (+49.7%) Average float of the set average normalized 0.087499900 result 0.040125, 0.070000, 0.059500, 0.087500, 0.035000 «No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.

What you get 5 outcomes

  • Profitable outcome 45%
  • Losing outcome 55%
at a loss
Glock-18 | Grinder
Factory New
858.36 ₽ 22.50%
Steam Glock-18 | Grinder (Factory New)net 746.40 you get 0.040125The Vanguard Collection sells 64 a week sell now to a buy order: 859.66 ₽ (you get 747.53)) · buy orders: 14620
in profit
best
M4A4 | Griffin
Factory New
7 232.21 ₽ 22.50%
price without deals
Steam M4A4 | Griffin (Factory New)net 6288.88 you get 0.070000The Vanguard Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 6 446.96 ₽ (you get 5 606.05)) · buy orders: 5075
in profit
M4A1-S | Basilisk
Factory New
2 494.55 ₽ 22.50%
Steam M4A1-S | Basilisk (Factory New)net 2169.17 you get 0.059500The Vanguard Collection sells 40 a week sell now to a buy order: 2 485.27 ₽ (you get 2 161.10)) · buy orders: 4448
at a loss
Sawed-Off | Highwayman
Minimal Wear
257.11 ₽ 22.50%
Steam Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Minimal Wear)net 223.57 you get 0.087500The Vanguard Collection sells 20 a week sell now to a buy order: 213.24 ₽ (you get 185.42)) · buy orders: 2895
at a loss
worst
Tec-9 | Red Quartz
Factory New
46.64 ₽ 10.00%
Steam Tec-9 | Red Quartz (Factory New)net 40.56 you get 0.035000 sells ≈935 a week — 6 of 7 days measured sell now to a buy order: 45.90 ₽ (you get 39.91)) · buy orders: 38034
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