The Vanguard Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Prices by float: this craft wasn't checked against the market overnight (only the best ones are) or there weren't enough listings — the numbers below are by average prices. «Check floats on Steam» will price it by live listings right now.

Average profit +353.42₴

Invest 930.07₴

Average return 1 283.49₴

ROI +38.0%

Chance of profit 55%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 2 384.77₴ · profit at most −1 101.28₴ (at most -46.2%) · chance of profit at most 26%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) × 9 7% of the wear window fits at least ×2.63 799.64 → 2103.04 ₴

MAG-7 | Memento (Minimal Wear) × 1 7% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 130.43 → 281.73 ₴

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −560 ₴

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Vanguard Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection

+353.42 ₴ +38.0% chance of profit 55%

expensive: M4A4 | Griffin (Factory New) · 3 295.33 ₴ · chance 22%

profit on prices without salesat least −560 ₴

9× UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0756
1× MAG-7 | Memento (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0756

Variant 2 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection

+1 606.02 ₴ +81.8% chance of profit 76%

expensive: Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New) · 8 205.78 ₴ · chance 6.0%

profit on prices without salesat least −1 784 ₴

7× MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New) buy 0.0200–0.0225
3× XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0835

Variant 3 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Collection

+963.93 ₴ +74.1% chance of profit 38%

expensive: Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New) · 8 205.78 ₴ · chance 18%

profit on prices without salesat least −719 ₴

1× UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0745
9× XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0839

Variant 4 only The Vanguard Collection

+433.43 ₴ +54.1% chance of profit 50%

expensive: M4A4 | Griffin (Factory New) · 3 295.33 ₴ · chance 25%

profit on prices without salesat least −390 ₴

2× MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1626
8× UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0744

Variant 5 The Wildfire Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Collection

+406.95 ₴ +49.5% chance of profit 49%

expensive: M4A4 | Griffin (Factory New) · 3 295.33 ₴ · chance 22%

profit on prices without salesat least −370 ₴

1× MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1618
8× UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0741
1× Tec-9 | Jambiya (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0741

Variant 6 The Winter Offensive Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Collection

+370.48 ₴ +46.6% chance of profit 48%

expensive: M4A4 | Griffin (Factory New) · 3 295.33 ₴ · chance 22%

profit on prices without salesat least −371 ₴

2× MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1618
7× UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0741
1× PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0741

How to build

7% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×9

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0756

799.64 ₴

at 88.85

Steam

×1

MAG-7 | Memento

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0756

130.43 ₴

at 130.43

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 930.07 ₴ +353.42 (+38.0%)

profit on prices without sales at least −712 ₴

5% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0742

88.85 ₴

at 88.85

Steam

×7

G3SG1 | Murky

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0037

691.04 ₴

at 98.72

Steam

×2

MAG-7 | Memento

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0742

260.87 ₴

at 130.43

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 1 040.76 ₴ +291.17 (+28.0%)

profit on prices without sales at least −877 ₴

5% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0742

88.85 ₴

at 88.85

Steam

×6

G3SG1 | Murky

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0037

592.32 ₴

at 98.72

Steam

×2

MAG-7 | Memento

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0742

260.87 ₴

at 130.43

Steam

×1

MAG-7 | Memento

Factory New

buy 0.0200–0.0226

222.80 ₴

at 222.80

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 1 164.83 ₴ +215.52 (+18.5%)

profit on prices without sales at least −1 042 ₴

5% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0742

88.85 ₴

at 88.85

Steam

×5

G3SG1 | Murky

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0036

493.60 ₴

at 98.72

Steam

×2

MAG-7 | Memento

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0742

260.87 ₴

at 130.43

Steam

×2

MAG-7 | Memento

Factory New

buy 0.0200–0.0226

445.59 ₴

at 222.80

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 1 288.91 ₴ +139.88 (+10.8%)

profit on prices without sales at least −1 207 ₴

5% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0741

88.85 ₴

at 88.85

Steam

×4

G3SG1 | Murky

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0036

394.88 ₴

at 98.72

Steam

×2

MAG-7 | Memento

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0741

260.87 ₴

at 130.43

Steam

×3

MAG-7 | Memento

Factory New

buy 0.0200–0.0226

668.39 ₴

at 222.80

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 1 412.99 ₴ +64.24 (+4.5%)

What you get 7 outcomes

Profitable outcome 55%
Losing outcome 45%

at a loss

Glock-18 | Grinder

Factory New

449.78 ₴ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

best

M4A4 | Griffin

Factory New

3 789.63 ₴ 22.50%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

M4A1-S | Basilisk

Factory New

1 307.13 ₴ 22.50%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Sawed-Off | Highwayman

Minimal Wear

134.72 ₴ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

Galil AR | Orange DDPAT

Minimal Wear

1 263.06 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

P250 | Splash

Factory New

3 366.99 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

Sawed-Off | Orange DDPAT

Minimal Wear

1 301.87 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +91.20 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +219.55 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Vanguard Collection and The eSports 2013 Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 4 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1714635 · The Bank Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 381.02₴ · invest 814.10₴
profit on prices without salesat least −360 ₴ rare inputs

CZ75-Auto | Tuxedo (Field-Tested) instead of MAG-7 | Memento (Minimal Wear); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075837 instead of 0.075645
Craft 1738380 · The Operation Riptide Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 379.93₴ · invest 845.59₴
profit on prices without salesat least −382 ₴ rare inputs

G3SG1 | Keeping Tabs (Field-Tested) instead of MAG-7 | Memento (Minimal Wear); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074990 instead of 0.075645
Craft 1734166 · The Graphic Design Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 374.35₴ · invest 853.06₴
profit on prices without salesat least −367 ₴ rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Wild Berry (Field-Tested) instead of MAG-7 | Memento (Minimal Wear); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074480 instead of 0.075645
Craft 1739333 · The Phoenix Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 363.64₴ · invest 825.84₴
profit on prices without salesat least −394 ₴ rare inputs

Tec-9 | Sandstorm (Field-Tested) instead of MAG-7 | Memento (Minimal Wear); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074518 instead of 0.075645

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Vanguard Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 7 outcomes

More

How to build