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The Wildfire Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection

StatTrak™ Classified → Covert

Average profit +244.66$

Invest 492.00$

Average return 736.66$

ROI +49.7%

Chance of profit 45%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 1 259.75$ · profit at most −523.09$ (at most -41.5%) · chance of profit at most 45%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) × 9 8% of the wear window fits at least ×2.63 419.19 → 1102.48 $

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Afterimage (Factory New) × 1 8% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 72.81 → 157.27 $

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −492 $

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Wildfire Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection

+244.66 $ +49.7% chance of profit 45%

expensive: StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) · 1 496.81 $ · chance 45%

profit on prices without salesat least −492 $

9× StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0765
1× StatTrak™ FAMAS | Afterimage (Factory New) buy 0.0200–0.0241

Variant 2 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Winter Collection

+428.31 $ +149.8% chance of profit 95%

expensive: StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) · 1 496.81 $ · chance 5.0%

marketplace price

1× StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1624
9× StatTrak™ P2000 | Corticera (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0743

Variant 3 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection

+368.84 $ +130.5% chance of profit 90%

expensive: StatTrak™ AK-47 | Jaguar (Factory New) · 901.60 $ · chance 45%

marketplace price

1× StatTrak™ FAMAS | Afterimage (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0748
9× StatTrak™ P2000 | Corticera (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0748

Variant 4 only The Wildfire Collection

+294.70 $ +58.4% chance of profit 50%

expensive: StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) · 1 496.81 $ · chance 50%

profit on prices without salesat least −505 $

9× StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0766
1× StatTrak™ Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0058

Variant 5 The Winter Offensive Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Winter Collection

+251.36 $ +49.5% chance of profit 50%

expensive: StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) · 1 496.81 $ · chance 45%

profit on prices without salesat least −508 $

8× StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0766
1× StatTrak™ Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0058
1× StatTrak™ P250 | Mehndi (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0766

Variant 6 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Winter Collection

+101.27 $ +15.2% chance of profit 45%

expensive: StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) · 1 496.81 $ · chance 45%

profit on prices without salesat least −666 $

7× StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0764
2× StatTrak™ Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0056
1× StatTrak™ AK-47 | Red Laminate (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1684

How to build

8% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 8% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×9

StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0765

419.19 $

at 46.58

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Afterimage

Factory New

buy 0.0200–0.0241

72.81 $

at 72.81

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 492.00 $ +244.66 (+49.7%)

profit on prices without sales at least −498 $

8% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 8% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×7

StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0760

326.04 $

at 46.58

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Afterimage

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0760

26.04 $

at 26.04

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Afterimage

Factory New

buy 0.0200–0.0237

145.62 $

at 72.81

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 497.70 $ +113.72 (+22.9%)

profit on prices without sales at least −501 $

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1631

29.19 $

at 29.19

Steam

×7

StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0745

326.04 $

at 46.58

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Afterimage

Factory New

buy 0.0200–0.0228

145.62 $

at 72.81

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 500.85 $ +173.20 (+34.6%)

profit on prices without sales at least −507 $

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1627

29.19 $

at 29.19

Steam

×5

StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0744

232.88 $

at 46.58

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Afterimage

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0744

26.04 $

at 26.04

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Afterimage

Factory New

buy 0.0200–0.0227

218.44 $

at 72.81

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 506.54 $ +42.26 (+8.3%)

What you get 3 outcomes

Profitable outcome 45%
Losing outcome 55%

in profit

best

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector

Factory New

1 721.33 $ 45.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

worst

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

117.02 $ 45.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ M4A4 | X-Ray

Factory New

199.05 $ 10.00%

price without deals

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +129.60 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +240.05 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Wildfire Collection and The eSports 2013 Winter Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 1 craft almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1735779 · The Huntsman Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 250.38$ · invest 536.41$
profit on prices without salesat least −472 $ marketplace price rare inputs

StatTrak™ USP-S | Caiman (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ FAMAS | Afterimage (Factory New); StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076256 instead of 0.076575

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Wildfire Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 3 outcomes

More

How to build