to all crafts

The Winter Offensive Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

StatTrak™ Classified → Covert

Average profit +173 490.63₸

Invest 130 902.89₸

Average return 304 393.53₸

ROI +132.5%

Chance of profit 95%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 337 248.11₸ · profit at most −32 854.58₸ (at most -9.7%) · chance of profit at most 45%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

StatTrak™ P250 | Mehndi (Field-Tested) × 1 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 14950.04 → 32292.09 ₸

StatTrak™ P2000 | Corticera (Minimal Wear) × 9 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.63 115952.85 → 304956.00 ₸

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

Sell on a marketplace: CSFloat — outcomes: 1. They have no price on Steam (above its price cap or nobody listed them); they are counted at the marketplace's cheapest listing minus its fee, ignoring pattern and float, — that is 45.0% of the probability. Money from the marketplace is real money you can withdraw, while the investment comes from the Steam balance. Without them (as zero, like before) the profit is -9 810.64 ₸.

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Winter Offensive Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

+173 490.62 ₸ +132.5% chance of profit 95%

expensive: StatTrak™ AK-47 | Jaguar (Factory New) · 407 336.20 ₸ · chance 45%

marketplace price

1× StatTrak™ P250 | Mehndi (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1624
9× StatTrak™ P2000 | Corticera (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0743

Variant 2 only The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

+193 454.89 ₸ +154.9% chance of profit 100%

expensive: StatTrak™ AK-47 | Jaguar (Factory New) · 407 336.20 ₸ · chance 50%

продажа ненадёжна

1× StatTrak™ AUG | Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1641
9× StatTrak™ P2000 | Corticera (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0749

Variant 3 only The Winter Offensive Collection

+30 331.16 ₸ +21.0% chance of profit 50%

expensive: StatTrak™ M4A4 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) · 300 555.42 ₸ · chance 50%

profit on prices without salesat least −144 706 ₸

2× StatTrak™ P250 | Mehndi (Battle-Scarred) buy 0.4500–0.5134
8× StatTrak™ P250 | Mehndi (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1765

Variant 4 The eSports 2013 Winter Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

+23 833.74 ₸ +16.8% chance of profit 45%

expensive: StatTrak™ M4A4 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) · 300 555.42 ₸ · chance 45%

profit on prices without salesat least −141 520 ₸

2× StatTrak™ P250 | Mehndi (Battle-Scarred) buy 0.4500–0.4974
7× StatTrak™ P250 | Mehndi (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1698
1× StatTrak™ FAMAS | Afterimage (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0768

How to build

5% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

StatTrak™ P250 | Mehndi

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1624

14 950.04 ₸

at 14 950.04

Steam

×9

StatTrak™ P2000 | Corticera

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0743

115 952.85 ₸

at 12 883.65

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 130 902.89 ₸ +173 490.63 (+132.5%)

What you get 4 outcomes

Profitable outcome 95%
Losing outcome 5%

in profit

best

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Jaguar

Factory New

415 649.18 ₸ 45.00%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Bullet Rain

Factory New

263 823.97 ₸ 45.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Asiimov

Field-Tested

345 638.73 ₸ 5.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

worst

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | The Kraken

Factory New

65 066.79 ₸ 5.00%

price without deals

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +159 506.75 ₸ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +172 438.03 ₸ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Winter Offensive Collection and The eSports 2014 Summer Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 3 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1722097 · The Chroma Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 170 818.75₸ · invest 134 988.37₸
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs

StatTrak™ P250 | Muertos (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ P250 | Mehndi (Field-Tested); StatTrak™ P2000 | Corticera (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075775 instead of 0.074334
Craft 1743280 · The eSports 2013 Winter Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 166 640.19₸ · invest 127 716.59₸
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Afterimage (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ P250 | Mehndi (Field-Tested); StatTrak™ P2000 | Corticera (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074819 instead of 0.074334
Craft 1722098 · The Chroma Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 166 234.39₸ · invest 127 000.44₸
продажа ненадёжна marketplace price sells slowly float out of reach rare inputs

StatTrak™ P250 | Muertos (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ P250 | Mehndi (Field-Tested); StatTrak™ P2000 | Corticera (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075319 instead of 0.074334

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Winter Offensive Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 4 outcomes

More

How to build