Crafts · The Falchion Collection
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The Falchion Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Classified About the craft Craft 1743409 · ways to build: 1 The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profit Average profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment. +1 609.59₽
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam». 5 949.60₽
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances. 7 559.19₽
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment. +27.1%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input. 0%
From the outcome -3 930.09 if you feed everything on without selling
Selling intermediates +5 539.68 money arrives in 7 days; buy the replacement right away

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 17 253.84₽ · profit at most −9 694.65₽ (at most -56.2%) · chance of profit at most 0%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits or more than 10 pieces of one item. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
UMP-45 | Riot (Minimal Wear) × 60 9% of the wear window fits at least ×2.90 3073.20 → 8912.28 ₽
UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) × 40 9% of the wear window fits at least ×2.90 2876.40 → 8341.56 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:
⋯ More
profit only from resale — without selling the intermediates the craft is at zero or negative: -3 930.09 ₽.

Craft variants Craft variants The same collection at other rarity steps: which grade turns into which here. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.

Variant 1 this one Mil-Spec → Classified
+1 609.59 ₽ +27.1% chance of profit 0%
expensive: MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New) · 2 074.57 ₽ · chance 33%
profit only from resale sells slowly 67% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away. rare inputs The rarest input sells 16 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 6× UMP-45 | Riot (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0773
  • 4× UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0064
Variant 2 Restricted → Classified
+1 050.15 ₽ +108.3% chance of profit 100%
expensive: MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New) · 2 074.57 ₽ · chance 33%
sells slowly
  • 2× P2000 | Handgun (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1637
  • 8× Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1637
Variant 3 Classified → Covert
+7 480.35 ₽ +79.8% chance of profit 100%
expensive: AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New) · 18 406.53 ₽ · chance 50%
profit on prices without salesat least −9 369 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 9× SG 553 | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0770
  • 1× SG 553 | Cyrex (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0062

What to buy Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

9% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 chains · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 9% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one; 100 pcs needed, and about 16 sell per day — buying will take 7 days, and the price will move in the meantime. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×60
UMP-45 | Riot
Minimal Wear
buy 0.0700–0.0773
3 073.20 ₽
at 51.22
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase details6 per contract, for each of the 10 first-step contractsexact upper edge 0.077368f′ (normalized) 0.110526wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 138 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
Lis-Skins: suitable 4 of 66 · from 37.69 ₽ (float 0.0725) · craft not before 15.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×40
UMP-45 | Riot
Factory New
buy 0.0000–0.0064
2 876.40 ₽
at 71.91
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase details4 per contract, for each of the 10 first-step contractsexact upper edge 0.006447f′ (normalized) 0.009210wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 174 · good ≈ 12
on the market with this float, usually ~14, new ~0.5 per day, cheapest usually 215.09 ₽ · little data: 2.0 d.
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 174) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
100
buy
Mil-Spec Grade
10
10 contracts
Restricted
1
1 contract
Classified

Craft on only from Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested), sell the rest. Buy the missing ones at 98.51 ₽.

Set · 100 pcs 5 949.60 ₽ +1 609.59 (+27.1%) Average float of the set average normalized 0.069999900 result 0.070000, 0.022400, 0.070000 «No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.

Chain steps 3 outcomes How the chain goes All steps are done in one day: a contract's outcome can go straight into the next one; the one-week trade hold doesn't apply to it. Only selling waits seven days: the final outcome and the intermediates worth selling. Finish in the chain builder — with filler from another collection or from your own intermediate items.

1

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

10 contracts of 10 · 10 items drop
sell
FAMAS | Neural Net
Factory New
597.19 ₽ 20%
Steam FAMAS | Neural Net (Factory New)+420.79 each above the replacement you get 0.0420
sell
P2000 | Handgun
Factory New
1 713.16 ₽ 20%
Steam P2000 | Handgun (Factory New)+1 391.19 each above the replacement you get 0.0700
sell
M4A4 | Evil Daimyo
Factory New
831.46 ₽ 20%
Steam M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Factory New)+624.50 each above the replacement you get 0.0364
sell
MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart
Factory New
496.65 ₽ 20%
Steam MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New)+333.36 each above the replacement you get 0.0350
craft on
Negev | Loudmouth
Field-Tested
96.61 ₽ 20%
Steam Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested)fetches 84.01, no more than the replacement you get 0.1757
2

Restricted → Classified

1 contract of 10 · 1 item drops · this is the chain outcome
  • Profitable outcome 0%
  • Losing outcome 100%
at a loss
CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket
Factory New
2 305.66 ₽ 33.33%
Steam CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Factory New)net 2004.92 you get 0.070000 sells 7 a week sell now to a buy order: 2 116.16 ₽ (you get 1 840.13)) · buy orders: 693 sell on Market.CSGO: 1 859.60 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 2 039.04 · lots 20 on CSFloat: from 1 666.91 ₽ listings: 45 on CS.Money: ~ 1 733.72 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 1 731.15 ₽ listings: 45
at a loss
best
MP7 | Nemesis
Factory New
2 385.76 ₽ 33.33%
Steam MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New)net 2074.57 you get 0.022400 sells 34 a week sell now to a buy order: 2 380.08 ₽ (you get 2 069.63)) · buy orders: 2273 sell on Market.CSGO: 1 987.81 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 2 179.62 · lots 43 on CSFloat: from 1 884.48 ₽ listings: 91 on CS.Money: ~ 1 960.71 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 1 879.34 ₽ listings: 112
at a loss
worst
SG 553 | Cyrex
Factory New
2 275.90 ₽ 33.33%
price without deals
Steam SG 553 | Cyrex (Factory New)net 1979.04 you get 0.070000
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 2 255.77 ₽ (you get 1 961.53)) · buy orders: 1006 sell on Market.CSGO: 1 995.93 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 2 188.53 · lots 16 on CSFloat: from 1 786.83 ₽ listings: 66 on CS.Money: ~ 1 814.24 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 1 898.18 ₽ listings: 101
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