Crafts · The Horizon Collection
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The Horizon Collection

Restricted → Covert About the craft Craft 1743478 · ways to build: 1 The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profit Average profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment. +25 456.01₽
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam». 48 215.40₽
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances. 73 671.41₽
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment. +52.8%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input. 0%
From the outcome -29 285.88 if you feed everything on without selling
Selling intermediates +54 741.89 money arrives in 7 days; buy the replacement right away

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 139 824.66₽ · profit at most −66 153.25₽ (at most -47.3%) · chance of profit at most 0%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits or more than 10 pieces of one item. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) × 40 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.90 4154.40 → 12047.76 ₽
AWP | PAW (Factory New) × 60 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.90 44061.00 → 127776.90 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:
⋯ More
profit only from resale — without selling the intermediates the craft is at zero or negative: -29 285.88 ₽.

Craft variants Craft variants The same collection at other rarity steps: which grade turns into which here. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.

Variant 1 this one Restricted → Covert
+25 456.01 ₽ +52.8% chance of profit 0%
expensive: AK-47 | Neon Rider (Factory New) · 20 949.72 ₽ · chance 50%
profit only from resale sells slowly 100% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.
  • 4× Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1630
  • 6× AWP | PAW (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
Variant 2 Restricted → Classified
+2 464.21 ₽ +51.1% chance of profit 33%
expensive: M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) · 17 915.19 ₽ · chance 33%
sells slowly float out of reach There are enough lots, but the needed float can't be reached with them: the craft can't be put together with the promised wears right now.
  • 4× Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1630
  • 6× AWP | PAW (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
Variant 3 Classified → Covert
+7 388.18 ₽ +64.0% chance of profit 100%
expensive: AK-47 | Neon Rider (Factory New) · 20 949.72 ₽ · chance 50%
profit on prices without salesat least −11 541 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 3 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 7× Sawed-Off | Devourer (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0772
  • 3× Sawed-Off | Devourer (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0063

What to buy Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 chains · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 6% of listings fit, and a rare float costs more than usual; you need 100 pcs. but about 29 sell per day — buying will take 4 days and the price will move meanwhile. The database holds the average item price, ignoring float — the real purchase will cost more.

×40
Nova | Toy Soldier
Field-Tested
buy 0.1500–0.1630
4 154.40 ₽
at 103.86
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase details4 per contract, for each of the 10 first-step contractsexact upper edge 0.163068f′ (normalized) 0.163068wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 248 · good ≈ 1
on the market with this float, usually ~1, new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 11 782.39 ₽
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 81) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×60
AWP | PAW
Factory New
buy 0.0000–0.0039
44 061.00 ₽
at 734.35
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase details6 per contract, for each of the 10 first-step contractsexact upper edge 0.003977f′ (normalized) 0.007954wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 487 · good ≈ 12
on the market with this float, usually ~13, new ~0.2 per day, cheapest usually 2 680.49 ₽
Lis-Skins: suitable 8 of 259 · from 2 680.24 ₽ (float 0.0023) · craft not before 15.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
100
buy
Restricted
10
10 contracts
Classified
1
1 contract
Covert

Craft on only from Sawed-Off | Devourer (Factory New), sell the rest. Buy the missing ones at 2 008.19 ₽.

Set · 100 pcs 48 215.40 ₽ +25 456.01 (+52.8%) Average float of the set average normalized 0.069999900 result 0.056000, 0.070000 «No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.

Chain steps 2 outcomes How the chain goes All steps are done in one day: a contract's outcome can go straight into the next one; the one-week trade hold doesn't apply to it. Only selling waits seven days: the final outcome and the intermediates worth selling. Finish in the chain builder — with filler from another collection or from your own intermediate items.

1

Restricted → Classified

10 contracts of 10 · 10 items drop
sell
FAMAS | Eye of Athena
Factory New
2 902.32 ₽ 33%
Steam FAMAS | Eye of Athena (Factory New)+515.57 each above the replacement you get 0.0490
sell
M4A1-S | Nightmare
Factory New
20 602.47 ₽ 33%
Steam M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New)+15 907.00 each above the replacement you get 0.0700
craft on
Sawed-Off | Devourer
Factory New
1 631.06 ₽ 33%
Steam Sawed-Off | Devourer (Factory New)fetches 1 418.31, no more than the replacement you get 0.0560
2

Classified → Covert

1 contract of 10 · 1 item drops · this is the chain outcome
  • Profitable outcome 0%
  • Losing outcome 100%
at a loss
best
AK-47 | Neon Rider
Factory New
24 092.18 ₽ 50.00%
price without deals
Steam AK-47 | Neon Rider (Factory New)net 20949.72 you get 0.056000
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 22 547.16 ₽ (you get 19 606.22)) · buy orders: 827 sell on Market.CSGO: 17 184.04 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 18 842.15 · lots 15 on CSFloat: from 17 213.00 ₽ listings: 139 on CS.Money: ~ 18 797.67 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 18 356.54 ₽ listings: 124
at a loss
worst
Desert Eagle | Code Red
Factory New
19 445.71 ₽ 50.00%
price without deals
Steam Desert Eagle | Code Red (Factory New)net 16909.31 you get 0.070000
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 17 431.28 ₽ (you get 15 157.63)) · buy orders: 779 sell on Market.CSGO: 13 679.08 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 14 999.00 · lots 21 on CSFloat: from 13 020.03 ₽ listings: 53 on CS.Money: ~ 14 876.25 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 13 605.08 ₽ listings: 130
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