Crafts · The Shadow Collection
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The Shadow Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Classified About the craft Craft 1743582 · ways to build: 1 The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profit Average profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment. +2 883.86₽
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam». 4 684.40₽
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances. 7 568.26₽
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment. +61.6%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input. 0%
From the outcome -1 963.47 if you feed everything on without selling
Selling intermediates +4 847.33 money arrives in 7 days; buy the replacement right away

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 13 584.76₽ · profit at most −6 016.50₽ (at most -44.3%) · chance of profit at most 0%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits or more than 10 pieces of one item. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear) × 20 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.90 790.00 → 2291.00 ₽
XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear) × 80 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.90 3894.40 → 11293.76 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:
⋯ More
profit only from resale — without selling the intermediates the craft is at zero or negative: -1 963.47 ₽.

Craft variants Craft variants The same collection at other rarity steps: which grade turns into which here. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.

Variant 1 this one Mil-Spec → Classified
+2 883.86 ₽ +61.6% chance of profit 0%
expensive: G3SG1 | Flux (Factory New) · 3 304.84 ₽ · chance 33%
profit only from resale sells slowly 67% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away. rare inputs The rarest input sells 5 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 2× SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0740
  • 8× XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0740
Variant 2 Restricted → Classified
+2 362.79 ₽ +74.9% chance of profit 67%
expensive: AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Factory New) · 10 786.44 ₽ · chance 33%
profit on prices without salesat least −1 233 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 1 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 7× M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0787
  • 3× MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0076
Variant 3 Classified → Covert
+8 269.46 ₽ +54.1% chance of profit 100%
expensive: USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New) · 25 537.86 ₽ · chance 50%
profit on prices without salesat least −15 290 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 1 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 8× G3SG1 | Flux (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0766
  • 2× SSG 08 | Big Iron (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0058

What to buy Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

5% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 chains · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one; 100 pcs needed, and about 5 sell per day — buying will take 20 days, and the price will move in the meantime. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×20
SCAR-20 | Green Marine
Minimal Wear
buy 0.0700–0.0740
790.00 ₽
at 39.50
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase details2 per contract, for each of the 10 first-step contractsexact upper edge 0.074073f′ (normalized) 0.092592wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 125 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 53) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×80
XM1014 | Scumbria
Minimal Wear
buy 0.0700–0.0740
3 894.40 ₽
at 48.68
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase details8 per contract, for each of the 10 first-step contractsexact upper edge 0.074073f′ (normalized) 0.074073wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 77 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 106) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
100
buy
Mil-Spec Grade
10
10 contracts
Restricted
1
1 contract
Classified

Craft on only from M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear), sell the rest. Buy the missing ones at 243.82 ₽.

Set · 100 pcs 4 684.40 ₽ +2 883.86 (+61.6%) Average float of the set average normalized 0.077777678 result 0.086111, 0.070000, 0.049778 «No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.

Chain steps 3 outcomes How the chain goes All steps are done in one day: a contract's outcome can go straight into the next one; the one-week trade hold doesn't apply to it. Only selling waits seven days: the final outcome and the intermediates worth selling. Finish in the chain builder — with filler from another collection or from your own intermediate items.

1

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

10 contracts of 10 · 10 items drop
sell
Galil AR | Stone Cold
Factory New
1 970.27 ₽ 25%
Steam Galil AR | Stone Cold (Factory New)+1 469.46 each above the replacement you get 0.0700
craft on
M249 | Nebula Crusader
Minimal Wear
227.02 ₽ 25%
Steam M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear)fetches 197.41, no more than the replacement you get 0.0778
sell
MP7 | Special Delivery
Factory New
466.76 ₽ 25%
Steam MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New)+162.06 each above the replacement you get 0.0482
sell
P250 | Wingshot
Factory New
633.92 ₽ 25%
Steam P250 | Wingshot (Factory New)+307.41 each above the replacement you get 0.0700
2

Restricted → Classified

1 contract of 10 · 1 item drops · this is the chain outcome
  • Profitable outcome 0%
  • Losing outcome 100%
at a loss
worst
AK-47 | Frontside Misty
Minimal Wear
2 763.12 ₽ 33.33%
Steam AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)net 2402.71 you get 0.086111 sells 246 a week sell now to a buy order: 2 777.87 ₽ (you get 2 415.53)) · buy orders: 3223 sell on Market.CSGO: 2 209.77 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 2 423.00 · lots 81 on CSFloat: from 2 065.22 ₽ listings: 358 on CS.Money: ~ 2 300.78 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 2 164.58 ₽ listings: 604
at a loss
best
G3SG1 | Flux
Factory New
3 800.57 ₽ 33.33%
Steam G3SG1 | Flux (Factory New)net 3304.84 you get 0.070000 sells 6 a week sell now to a buy order: 2 709.03 ₽ (you get 2 355.67)) · buy orders: 478 sell on Market.CSGO: 2 462.34 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 2 699.94 · lots 14 on CSFloat: from 2 741.06 ₽ listings: 30 on CS.Money: ~ 2 312.77 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 2 380.44 ₽ listings: 41
at a loss
SSG 08 | Big Iron
Factory New
2 823.51 ₽ 33.33%
Steam SSG 08 | Big Iron (Factory New)net 2455.23 you get 0.049778 sells 11 a week sell now to a buy order: 2 608.62 ₽ (you get 2 268.36)) · buy orders: 2114 sell on Market.CSGO: 2 268.51 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 2 487.41 · lots 30 on CSFloat: from 1 983.84 ₽ listings: 78 on CS.Money: ~ 2 036.09 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 2 248.53 ₽ listings: 116
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