Crafts · The Shadow Collection
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The Shadow Collection

StatTrak™ Mil-Spec Grade → Covert About the craft Craft 1743590 · ways to build: 1 StatTrak™ craft. Inputs and outcome are StatTrak: a normal item won't do here, and the outcome sells at the StatTrak price, not at the price of its normal counterpart. The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Prices by float: this craft wasn't checked against the market overnight (only the best ones are) or there weren't enough listings — the numbers below are by average prices. «Check floats on Steam» will price it by live listings right now.
Average profit Average profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment. +207 736.80₸
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam». 505 970.29₸
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances. 713 707.09₸
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment. +41.1%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input. 0%
From the outcome -219 227.54 if you feed everything on without selling
Selling intermediates +426 964.34 money arrives in 7 days; buy the replacement right away

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 1 467 313.83₸ · profit at most −753 606.75₸ (at most -51.4%) · chance of profit at most 0%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits or more than 10 pieces of one item. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Scumbria (Field-Tested) × 400 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.90 92132.69 → 267184.80 ₸
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Rangeen (Factory New) × 600 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.90 413837.60 → 1200129.03 ₸

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:
⋯ More
profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −505 970 ₸ Which itemsIf these items are never sold, the profit is at least −505 970 ₸: StatTrak™ Galil AR | Stone Cold (Factory New), StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New), StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New), StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Flux (Factory New), StatTrak™ M249 | Nebula Crusader (Factory New) and 2 more
profit only from resale — without selling the intermediates the craft is at zero or negative: -219 227.54 ₸.

Craft variants Craft variants The same collection at other rarity steps: which grade turns into which here. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.

Variant 1 this one Mil-Spec → Covert
+207 736.80 ₸ +41.1% chance of profit 0%
expensive: StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New) · 346 967.24 ₸ · chance 50%
profit on prices without salesat least −505 970 ₸ profit only from resale Outcome alone -219228, selling intermediates +426964. Sale money arrives in 7 days; buy the replacement right away. rare inputs The rarest input sells 2 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 4× StatTrak™ XM1014 | Scumbria (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1630
  • 6× StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Rangeen (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
Variant 2 Mil-Spec → Restricted
+2 441.90 ₸ +48.3% chance of profit 75%
expensive: StatTrak™ Galil AR | Stone Cold (Factory New) · 13 697.91 ₸ · chance 25%
profit on prices without salesat least −4 189 ₸ rare inputs The rarest input sells 2 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 4× StatTrak™ XM1014 | Scumbria (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1630
  • 6× StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Rangeen (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
Variant 3 Restricted → Classified
+26 423.47 ₸ +83.0% chance of profit 100%
expensive: StatTrak™ AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Factory New) · 90 673.27 ₸ · chance 33%
profit on prices without salesat least −31 829 ₸ rare inputs The rarest input sells 1 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 4× StatTrak™ MP7 | Special Delivery (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0791
  • 6× StatTrak™ MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0080
Variant 4 Classified → Covert
+46 334.96 ₸ +19.3% chance of profit 50%
expensive: StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New) · 346 967.24 ₸ · chance 50%
profit on prices without salesat least −240 408 ₸ rare inputs The rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 8× StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Flux (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0766
  • 2× StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Big Iron (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0058

What to buy Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 chains · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one; 1000 pcs needed, and about 2 sell per day — buying will take 500 days, and the price will move in the meantime. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×400
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Scumbria
Field-Tested
buy 0.1500–0.1630
92 132.69 ₸
at 230.33
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase details4 per contract, for each of the 100 first-step contractsexact upper edge 0.163068f′ (normalized) 0.163068wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 39 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0, new per day — can't tell yet · little data: 0.0 d.
×600
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Rangeen
Factory New
buy 0.0000–0.0039
413 837.60 ₸
at 689.73
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase details6 per contract, for each of the 100 first-step contractsexact upper edge 0.003977f′ (normalized) 0.007954wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 66 · good ≈ 1
on the market with this float, usually ~2, new per day — can't tell yet, cheapest usually 3 271.16 ₸ · little data: 0.0 d.
1000
buy
Mil-Spec Grade
100
100 contracts
Restricted
10
10 contracts
Classified
1
1 contract
Covert

Craft on only from StatTrak™ MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New), sell the rest. Buy the missing ones at 4 074.19 ₸.

Craft on only from StatTrak™ AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear), sell the rest. Buy the missing ones at 31 633.24 ₸.

Set · 1000 pcs 505 970.29 ₸ +207 736.80 (+41.1%) Average float of the set average normalized 0.069999900 all outcomes come out at 0.070000 «No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.

Chain steps 2 outcomes How the chain goes All steps are done in one day: a contract's outcome can go straight into the next one; the one-week trade hold doesn't apply to it. Only selling waits seven days: the final outcome and the intermediates worth selling. Finish in the chain builder — with filler from another collection or from your own intermediate items.

1

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

100 contracts of 10 · 100 items drop
sell
StatTrak™ Galil AR | Stone Cold
Factory New
15 752.59 ₸ 25%
price without deals
Steam StatTrak™ Galil AR | Stone Cold (Factory New)+9 623.72 each above the replacement
by lot · 0 sales per day
you get 0.0630
sell
StatTrak™ M249 | Nebula Crusader
Factory New
7 400.15 ₸ 25%
price without deals
Steam StatTrak™ M249 | Nebula Crusader (Factory New)+2 360.70 each above the replacement
by lot · 0 sales per day
you get 0.0700
craft on
StatTrak™ MP7 | Special Delivery
Factory New
4 003.19 ₸ 25%
Steam StatTrak™ MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New)fetches 3 481.03, no more than the replacement you get 0.0434
sell
StatTrak™ P250 | Wingshot
Factory New
7 351.42 ₸ 25%
price without deals
Steam StatTrak™ P250 | Wingshot (Factory New)+2 318.35 each above the replacement
by lot · 0 sales per day
you get 0.0630
2

Restricted → Classified

10 contracts of 10 · 10 items drop
craft on
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Frontside Misty
Minimal Wear
28 853.65 ₸ 33%
Steam StatTrak™ AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)fetches 25 090.12, no more than the replacement you get 0.0795
sell
StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Flux
Factory New
57 836.68 ₸ 33%
price without deals
Steam StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Flux (Factory New)+18 659.51 each above the replacement
by lot · 0 sales per day
you get 0.0630
sell
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Big Iron
Factory New
38 860.87 ₸ 33%
price without deals
Steam StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Big Iron (Factory New)+2 158.80 each above the replacement
by lot · 0 sales per day
you get 0.0448
3

Classified → Covert

1 contract of 10 · 1 item drops · this is the chain outcome
  • Profitable outcome 0%
  • Losing outcome 100%
at a loss
worst
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil
Factory New
260 495.95 ₸ 50.00%
price without deals
Steam StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New)net 226518.20 you get 0.070000
by lot · 0 sales per day
no buy orders
at a loss
best
StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed
Factory New
399 012.35 ₸ 50.00%
price without deals
Steam StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New)net 346967.24 you get 0.070000
by lot · 0 sales per day
no buy orders
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