Crafts · The Vanguard Collection
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The Vanguard Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Covert About the craft Craft 1743636 · ways to build: 1 The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profit Average profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment. +15 696.43₴
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam». 94 771.63₴
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances. 110 468.05₴
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment. +16.6%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input. 0%
From the outcome -81 768.54 if you feed everything on without selling
Selling intermediates +97 464.97 money arrives in 7 days; buy the replacement right away

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 274 837.72₴ · profit at most −164 369.67₴ (at most -59.8%) · chance of profit at most 0%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits or more than 10 pieces of one item. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) × 400 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.90 35539.36 → 103064.15 ₴
G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New) × 600 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.90 59232.27 → 171773.58 ₴

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:
⋯ More
profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −70 414 ₴ Which itemsIf these items are never sold, the profit is at least −70 414 ₴: M4A4 | Griffin (Factory New), AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New), P250 | Cartel (Factory New)
profit only from resale — without selling the intermediates the craft is at zero or negative: -81 768.54 ₴.

Craft variants Craft variants The same collection at other rarity steps: which grade turns into which here. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.

Variant 1 this one Mil-Spec → Covert
+15 696.43 ₴ +16.6% chance of profit 0%
expensive: AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) · 21 415.40 ₴ · chance 50%
profit on prices without salesat least −70 414 ₴ profit only from resale Outcome alone -81769, selling intermediates +97465. Sale money arrives in 7 days; buy the replacement right away. rare inputs The rarest input sells 1 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 4× UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0748
  • 6× G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0042
Variant 2 Mil-Spec → Restricted
+433.43 ₴ +54.1% chance of profit 50%
expensive: M4A4 | Griffin (Factory New) · 3 295.33 ₴ · chance 25%
profit on prices without salesat least −390 ₴ rare inputs The rarest input sells 3 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 2× MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1626
  • 8× UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0744
Variant 3 Classified → Covert
+2 106.26 ₴ +19.3% chance of profit 50%
expensive: AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) · 21 415.40 ₴ · chance 50%
profit on prices without salesat least −8 601 ₴ rare inputs The rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 3× SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0764
  • 7× XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0056
Variant 4 Covert → нож или перчатки
−1 243.78 ₴ −4.7% chance of profit 34%
expensive: ★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New) · 206 267.89 ₴ · chance 1.5%
at a loss, a chance at an expensive one no outcome price marketplace price Price from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real. sells slowly 51% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away. rare inputs The rarest input sells 1 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy. pricier variants exist Pattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
  • 5× P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0081

What to buy Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 chains · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one; 1000 pcs needed, and about 1 sell per day — buying will take 1000 days, and the price will move in the meantime. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×400
UMP-45 | Delusion
Minimal Wear
buy 0.0700–0.0748
35 539.36 ₴
at 88.85
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase details4 per contract, for each of the 100 first-step contractsexact upper edge 0.074879f′ (normalized) 0.051307wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 79 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0, new per day — can't tell yet · little data: 0.0 d.
×600
G3SG1 | Murky
Factory New
buy 0.0000–0.0042
59 232.27 ₴
at 98.72
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase details6 per contract, for each of the 100 first-step contractsexact upper edge 0.004269f′ (normalized) 0.017076wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 115 · good ≈ 5
on the market with this float, usually ~5, new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 1 006.34 ₴ · little data: 2.0 d.
1000
buy
Mil-Spec Grade
100
100 contracts
Restricted
10
10 contracts
Classified
1
1 contract
Covert

Craft on only from Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Factory New), sell the rest. Buy the missing ones at 322.63 ₴.

Craft on only from SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Factory New), XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New), sell the rest. Buy the missing ones at 1 292.72 ₴.

Set · 1000 pcs 94 771.63 ₴ +15 696.43 (+16.6%) Average float of the set average normalized 0.030769131 result 0.070000, 0.018461 «No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.

Chain steps 2 outcomes How the chain goes All steps are done in one day: a contract's outcome can go straight into the next one; the one-week trade hold doesn't apply to it. Only selling waits seven days: the final outcome and the intermediates worth selling. Finish in the chain builder — with filler from another collection or from your own intermediate items.

1

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

100 contracts of 10 · 100 items drop
sell
Glock-18 | Grinder
Factory New
449.78 ₴ 25%
Steam Glock-18 | Grinder (Factory New)+68.48 each above the replacement you get 0.0271
sell
M4A4 | Griffin
Factory New
3 789.63 ₴ 25%
price without deals
Steam M4A4 | Griffin (Factory New)+2 972.70 each above the replacement
by lot · 0 sales per day
you get 0.0246
sell
M4A1-S | Basilisk
Factory New
1 307.13 ₴ 25%
Steam M4A1-S | Basilisk (Factory New)+814.00 each above the replacement you get 0.0209
craft on
Sawed-Off | Highwayman
Factory New
316.46 ₴ 25%
Steam Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Factory New)fetches 275.19, no more than the replacement you get 0.0308
2

Restricted → Classified

10 contracts of 10 · 10 items drop
sell
P250 | Cartel
Factory New
1 861.15 ₴ 33%
price without deals
Steam P250 | Cartel (Factory New)+325.67 each above the replacement
by lot · 0 sales per day
you get 0.0231
craft on
SCAR-20 | Cardiac
Factory New
1 481.62 ₴ 33%
Steam SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Factory New)fetches 1 288.37, no more than the replacement you get 0.0308
craft on
XM1014 | Tranquility
Factory New
1 292.72 ₴ 33%
Steam XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New)fetches 1 124.11, no more than the replacement you get 0.0154
3

Classified → Covert

1 contract of 10 · 1 item drops · this is the chain outcome
  • Profitable outcome 0%
  • Losing outcome 100%
at a loss
best
AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel
Factory New
24 627.71 ₴ 50.00%
price without deals
Steam AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)net 21415.40 you get 0.070000
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 18 318.38 ₴ (you get 15 929.02)) · buy orders: 645 sell on Market.CSGO: 15 517.20 ₴ to your card cheapest lot 17 014.48 · lots 6 on CSFloat: from 14 792.98 ₴ listings: 21 on CS.Money: ~ 16 413.30 ₴ on Lis-Skins: from 15 562.29 ₴ listings: 41
at a loss
worst
P2000 | Fire Elemental
Factory New
5 279.39 ₴ 50.00%
Steam P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New)net 4590.77 you get 0.018461 sells 4 a week sell now to a buy order: 5 206.05 ₴ (you get 4 526.99)) · buy orders: 764 sell on Market.CSGO: 3 903.08 ₴ to your card cheapest lot 4 279.69 · lots 23 on CSFloat: from 3 932.32 ₴ listings: 59 on CS.Money: ~ 3 849.28 ₴ on Lis-Skins: from 3 628.00 ₴ listings: 76
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