Knives and gloves · The Breakout Collection
₴≈
₽ RUB ₴ UAH ₸ KZT $ USD

≈ at the Steam rate on 06.10: 1 ₽ = 0.5240 ₴. This is a conversion, not the regional price.

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The Breakout Collection + The Falchion Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5 About the craft Craft 1743871 · ways to build: 4 A contract of five Covert. The outcome is a knife or gloves from the inputs' collection, and its pool is large: the chance of a particular item is small, so what counts is the average over the whole pool. The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Prices by float: this craft wasn't checked against the market overnight (only the best ones are) or there weren't enough listings — the numbers below are by average prices. «Check floats on Steam» will price it by live listings right now.
Average profit Average profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment. −4 589.28₴
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam». 52 307.85₴
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances. 47 718.57₴
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment. −8.8%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input. 37%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 121 819.03₴ · profit at most −74 100.46₴ (at most -60.8%) · chance of profit at most 6%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New) × 4 11% of the wear window fits at least ×2.37 43093.03 → 101915.01 ₴
AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New) × 1 11% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 9214.83 → 19904.02 ₴

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:
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To calculator I have items
The gain is understated. 3 outcomes have no price on Steam — they're above its cap and aren't listed. The calculation counts them as zero; they carry 9.2% of the probability.
Sell on a marketplace: CSFloat — outcomes: 11. They have no price on Steam (above its price cap or nobody listed them); they are counted at the marketplace's cheapest listing minus its fee, ignoring pattern and float, — that is 63.1% of the probability. Money from the marketplace is real money you can withdraw, while the investment comes from the Steam balance. Without them (as zero, like before) the profit is -43 168.57 ₴.

Craft variants Craft variants The same main collection (or the second one) with another partner — a different collection for balance. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.

+ a third collection
Variant 1 this one The Breakout Collection + The Falchion Collection
−4 589.28 ₴ −8.8% chance of profit 37%
expensive: ★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) · 167 149.24 ₴ · chance 6.2%
no outcome price marketplace price Price from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real. sells slowly 26% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away. rare inputs The rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy. pricier variants exist Pattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
  • 4× M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0075
  • 1× AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0075
Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Falchion Collection
+67 907.78 ₴ +82.6% chance of profit 30%
expensive: ★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New) · 1 288 808.67 ₴ · chance 3.3%
no outcome price marketplace price Price from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real. sells slowly 26% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away. rare inputs The rarest input sells 1 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy. pricier variants exist Pattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
  • 1× M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0067
  • 4× SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0067
Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Breakout Collection
+59 656.43 ₴ +74.0% chance of profit 27%
expensive: ★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New) · 1 288 808.67 ₴ · chance 3.3%
no outcome price marketplace price Price from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real. sells slowly 37% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away. rare inputs The rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy. pricier variants exist Pattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
  • 1× AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0075
  • 4× SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0075
Variant 4 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Falchion Collection
+32 154.84 ₴ +27.3% chance of profit 18%
expensive: ★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New) · 1 288 808.67 ₴ · chance 3.3%
no outcome price marketplace price Price from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real. sells slowly 26% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away. rare inputs The rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy. pricier variants exist Pattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
  • 1× M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0112
  • 4× Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0112
Variant 5 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Breakout Collection
+23 903.49 ₴ +20.5% chance of profit 20%
expensive: ★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New) · 1 288 808.67 ₴ · chance 3.3%
no outcome price marketplace price Price from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real. sells slowly 37% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away. rare inputs The rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy. pricier variants exist Pattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
  • 1× AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0135
  • 4× Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0135
Variant 6 The Spectrum Collection instead of The Falchion Collection
−112.90 ₴ −0.2% chance of profit 46%
expensive: ★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) · 167 149.24 ₴ · chance 6.2%
at a loss, a chance at an expensive one outcome without sales no outcome price Outcome above the Steam cap: no price, the gain is understated marketplace price Price from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real. rare inputs The rarest input sells 6 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy. pricier variants exist Pattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
  • 4× M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0071
  • 1× USP-S | Neo-Noir (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0071

How to build Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

11% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)
×4
M4A1-S | Cyrex
Factory New
buy 0.0000–0.0075
43 093.03 ₴
at 10 773.26
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.007507f′ (normalized) 0.015014wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 121 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0, new ~0.0 per day · among lots up to 19 969.81 ₴
×1
AWP | Hyper Beast
Factory New
buy 0.0000–0.0075
9 214.83 ₴
at 9 214.83
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.007507f′ (normalized) 0.007507wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 23 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0, new ~0.0 per day
Set · 5 pcs 52 307.85 ₴ -4 589.28 (-8.8%) Average float of the set average normalized 0.013513414 result 0.001081, 0.013378, 0.013513, 0.013513, 0.013513, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.000000, 0.001081, 0.013378, 0.013513, 0.013513, 0.013513, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.000000 «No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.

What you get 26 outcomes

  • Profitable outcome 37%
  • Losing outcome 48%
  • About break-even 6%
  • Above the Steam cap 9%
in profit
★ Butterfly Knife | Fade
Factory New
92 941.53 ₴ 6.15%
sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New)net 91082.70 you get 0.001081 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 92 941.53 ₴ listings 278 · you get 91 082.70 ₴ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 93 522.98 ₴ (you get 81 324.33)) · buy orders: 3645
in profit
★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter
Factory New
57 525.55 ₴ 6.15%
sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)net 56375.04 you get 0.013378 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 57 525.55 ₴ listings 157 · you get 56 375.04 ₴ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 81 641.76 ₴ (you get 70 992.83)) · buy orders: 1363
at a loss
★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel
Factory New
49 561.28 ₴ 6.15%
sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)net 48570.05 you get 0.013513 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 49 561.28 ₴ listings 10 · you get 48 570.05 ₴ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 52 620.68 ₴ (you get 45 757.11)) · buy orders: 505
about break-even
★ Butterfly Knife | Stained
Factory New
57 680.58 ₴ 6.15%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Stained (Factory New)net 50157.02 you get 0.013513
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 47 345.98 ₴ (you get 41 170.41)) · buy orders: 361
in profit
★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened
Factory New
58 065.51 ₴ 6.15%
sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)net 56904.20 you get 0.013513 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 58 065.51 ₴ listings 24 · you get 56 904.20 ₴ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 73 993.53 ₴ (you get 64 342.20)) · buy orders: 414
at a loss
★ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT
Factory New
31 426.66 ₴ 6.15%
sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)net 30798.13 you get 0.070000 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 31 426.66 ₴ listings 5 · you get 30 798.13 ₴ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 30 957.20 ₴ (you get 26 919.30)) · buy orders: 128
at a loss
★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest
Factory New
37 882.37 ₴ 6.15%
sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)net 37124.73 you get 0.070000 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 37 882.37 ₴ listings 3 · you get 37 124.73 ₴ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 40 262.95 ₴ (you get 35 011.25)) · buy orders: 135
in profit
best
★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web
Factory New
170 560.45 ₴ 6.15%
sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)net 167149.24 you get 0.070000 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 170 560.45 ₴ listings 3 · you get 167 149.24 ₴ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 89 470.38 ₴ (you get 77 800.33)) · buy orders: 177
in profit
★ Butterfly Knife | Night
Factory New
57 171.42 ₴ 6.15%
sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Night (Factory New)net 56027.98 you get 0.070000 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 57 171.42 ₴ listings 6 · you get 56 027.98 ₴ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 53 682.43 ₴ (you get 46 680.37)) · buy orders: 154
at a loss
★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched
Factory New
38 151.68 ₴ 6.15%
sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched (Factory New)net 37388.65 you get 0.070000 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 38 151.68 ₴ listings 7 · you get 37 388.65 ₴ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern no buy orders
★ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh
Factory New
not on Steam — above the cap 6.15%
pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New) you get 0.070000 sell now to a buy order: 29 693.01 ₴ (you get 25 820.01)) · buy orders: 126
at a loss
★ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked
Factory New
44 794.56 ₴ 6.15%
sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)net 43898.67 you get 0.070000 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 44 794.56 ₴ listings 11 · you get 43 898.67 ₴ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 34 354.91 ₴ (you get 29 873.83)) · buy orders: 146
in profit
★ Butterfly Knife
no wear
83 250.99 ₴ 6.15%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knifenet 72392.17
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 66 624.39 ₴ (you get 57 934.25)) · buy orders: 3422
at a loss
★ Falchion Knife | Fade
Factory New
12 353.43 ₴ 1.54%
pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Falchion Knife | Fade (Factory New)net 10742.12 you get 0.001081The Falchion Collection sells 8 a week sell now to a buy order: 11 740.42 ₴ (you get 10 209.06)) · buy orders: 888
at a loss
★ Falchion Knife | Slaughter
Factory New
13 735.78 ₴ 1.54%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Falchion Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)net 11944.16 you get 0.013378The Falchion Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
no buy orders
at a loss
★ Falchion Knife | Blue Steel
Factory New
17 506.68 ₴ 1.54%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Falchion Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)net 15223.20 you get 0.013513The Falchion Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
no buy orders
at a loss
★ Falchion Knife | Stained
Factory New
7 742.67 ₴ 1.54%
pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Falchion Knife | Stained (Factory New)net 6732.76 you get 0.013513The Falchion Collection sells 2 a week sell now to a buy order: 6 584.48 ₴ (you get 5 725.63)) · buy orders: 130
at a loss
★ Falchion Knife | Case Hardened
Factory New
20 226.16 ₴ 1.54%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Falchion Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)net 17587.97 you get 0.013513The Falchion Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 15 969.89 ₴ (you get 13 886.86)) · buy orders: 161
at a loss
★ Falchion Knife | Forest DDPAT
Factory New
13 099.85 ₴ 1.54%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Falchion Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)net 11391.17 you get 0.070000The Falchion Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 6 263.29 ₴ (you get 5 446.34)) · buy orders: 140
at a loss
★ Falchion Knife | Boreal Forest
Factory New
12 254.53 ₴ 1.54%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Falchion Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)net 10656.11 you get 0.070000The Falchion Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 4 475.50 ₴ (you get 3 891.73)) · buy orders: 94
★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web
Factory New
not on Steam — above the cap 1.54%
pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) you get 0.070000The Falchion Collection sell now to a buy order: 29 077.71 ₴ (you get 25 284.96)) · buy orders: 39
★ Falchion Knife | Night
Factory New
not on Steam — above the cap 1.54%
pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Falchion Knife | Night (Factory New) you get 0.070000The Falchion Collection sell now to a buy order: 11 723.38 ₴ (you get 10 194.24)) · buy orders: 98
at a loss
★ Falchion Knife | Scorched
Factory New
6 506.43 ₴ 1.54%
sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Falchion Knife | Scorched (Factory New)net 6376.30 you get 0.070000The Falchion Collection no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 6 506.43 ₴ listings 3 · you get 6 376.30 ₴ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 4 786.66 ₴ (you get 4 162.31)) · buy orders: 112
at a loss
★ Falchion Knife | Safari Mesh
Factory New
8 121.91 ₴ 1.54%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Falchion Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New)net 7062.53 you get 0.070000The Falchion Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
no buy orders
at a loss
★ Falchion Knife | Urban Masked
Factory New
8 259.33 ₴ 1.54%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Falchion Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)net 7182.02 you get 0.070000The Falchion Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 4 988.59 ₴ (you get 4 337.90)) · buy orders: 46
at a loss
worst
★ Falchion Knife
no wear
6 134.55 ₴ 1.54%
pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Falchion Knifenet 5334.39The Falchion Collection sells 22 a week sell now to a buy order: 5 628.44 ₴ (you get 4 894.30)) · buy orders: 1844
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