Knives and gloves · The Wildfire Collection
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The Wildfire Collection + The Breakout Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5 About the craft Craft 1743926 · ways to build: 4 A contract of five Covert. The outcome is a knife or gloves from the inputs' collection, and its pool is large: the chance of a particular item is small, so what counts is the average over the whole pool. The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Prices by float: this craft wasn't checked against the market overnight (only the best ones are) or there weren't enough listings — the numbers below are by average prices. «Check floats on Steam» will price it by live listings right now.
Average profit Average profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment. −530.32₽
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam». 91 896.22₽
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances. 91 365.90₽
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment. −0.6%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input. 49%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 215 354.95₽ · profit at most −123 989.04₽ (at most -57.6%) · chance of profit at most 6%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New) × 1 10% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 9656.66 → 20858.39 ₽
M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New) × 4 10% of the wear window fits at least ×2.37 82239.56 → 194496.56 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:
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To calculator I have items
The gain is understated. 5 outcomes have no price on Steam — they're above its cap and aren't listed. The calculation counts them as zero; they carry 12.3% of the probability.
Sell on a marketplace: CSFloat — outcomes: 12. They have no price on Steam (above its price cap or nobody listed them); they are counted at the marketplace's cheapest listing minus its fee, ignoring pattern and float, — that is 64.6% of the probability. Money from the marketplace is real money you can withdraw, while the investment comes from the Steam balance. Without them (as zero, like before) the profit is -74 639.40 ₽.
+ a third collection

How to build Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

10% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)
×1
M4A4 | The Battlestar
Factory New
buy 0.0000–0.0070
9 656.66 ₽
at 9 656.66
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.007065f′ (normalized) 0.011040wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 32 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0, new ~0.0 per day · little data: 2.0 d.
×4
M4A1-S | Cyrex
Factory New
buy 0.0000–0.0070
82 239.56 ₽
at 20 559.89
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.007065f′ (normalized) 0.014131wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 121 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0, new ~0.0 per day · among lots up to 38 110.77 ₽
Set · 5 pcs 91 896.22 ₽ -530.32 (-0.6%) Average float of the set average normalized 0.013513414 result 0.001081, 0.013378, 0.013513, 0.013513, 0.013513, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.000000, 0.001081, 0.013378, 0.013513, 0.013513, 0.013513, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.000000 «No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.

What you get 26 outcomes

  • Profitable outcome 37%
  • Losing outcome 38%
  • About break-even 12%
  • Above the Steam cap 12%
in profit
★ Butterfly Knife | Fade
Factory New
177 371.41 ₽ 6.15%
sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New)net 173823.98 you get 0.001081The Breakout Collection no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 177 371.41 ₽ listings 278 · you get 173 823.98 ₽ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 178 481.05 ₽ (you get 155 200.91)) · buy orders: 3645
in profit
★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter
Factory New
109 782.87 ₽ 6.15%
sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)net 107587.21 you get 0.013378The Breakout Collection no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 109 782.87 ₽ listings 157 · you get 107 587.21 ₽ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 155 806.71 ₽ (you get 135 484.09)) · buy orders: 1363
about break-even
★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel
Factory New
94 583.70 ₽ 6.15%
sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)net 92692.02 you get 0.013513The Breakout Collection no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 94 583.70 ₽ listings 10 · you get 92 692.02 ₽ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 100 422.31 ₽ (you get 87 323.74)) · buy orders: 505
about break-even
★ Butterfly Knife | Stained
Factory New
110 078.73 ₽ 6.15%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Stained (Factory New)net 95720.63 you get 0.013513The Breakout Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 90 355.98 ₽ (you get 78 570.41)) · buy orders: 361
in profit
★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened
Factory New
110 813.34 ₽ 6.15%
sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)net 108597.07 you get 0.013513The Breakout Collection no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 110 813.34 ₽ listings 24 · you get 108 597.07 ₽ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 141 210.68 ₽ (you get 122 791.89)) · buy orders: 414
at a loss
★ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT
Factory New
59 975.25 ₽ 6.15%
sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)net 58775.74 you get 0.070000The Breakout Collection no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 59 975.25 ₽ listings 5 · you get 58 775.74 ₽ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 59 079.31 ₽ (you get 51 373.31)) · buy orders: 128
at a loss
★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest
Factory New
72 295.45 ₽ 6.15%
sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)net 70849.54 you get 0.070000The Breakout Collection no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 72 295.45 ₽ listings 3 · you get 70 849.54 ₽ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 76 838.58 ₽ (you get 66 816.15)) · buy orders: 135
in profit
best
★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web
Factory New
325 500.85 ₽ 6.15%
sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)net 318990.83 you get 0.070000The Breakout Collection no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 325 500.85 ₽ listings 3 · you get 318 990.83 ₽ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 170 746.99 ₽ (you get 148 475.64)) · buy orders: 177
in profit
★ Butterfly Knife | Night
Factory New
109 107.03 ₽ 6.15%
sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Night (Factory New)net 106924.88 you get 0.070000The Breakout Collection no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 109 107.03 ₽ listings 6 · you get 106 924.88 ₽ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 102 448.58 ₽ (you get 89 085.72)) · buy orders: 154
at a loss
★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched
Factory New
72 809.40 ₽ 6.15%
sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched (Factory New)net 71353.21 you get 0.070000The Breakout Collection no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 72 809.40 ₽ listings 7 · you get 71 353.21 ₽ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern no buy orders
★ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh
Factory New
not on Steam — above the cap 6.15%
pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New) you get 0.070000The Breakout Collection sell now to a buy order: 56 666.72 ₽ (you get 49 275.40)) · buy orders: 126
at a loss
★ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked
Factory New
85 486.80 ₽ 6.15%
sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)net 83777.06 you get 0.070000The Breakout Collection no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 85 486.80 ₽ listings 11 · you get 83 777.06 ₽ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 65 563.57 ₽ (you get 57 011.80)) · buy orders: 146
in profit
★ Butterfly Knife
no wear
158 877.80 ₽ 6.15%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knifenet 138154.61The Breakout Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 127 147.27 ₽ (you get 110 562.84)) · buy orders: 3422
at a loss
★ Bowie Knife | Fade
Factory New
22 295.29 ₽ 1.54%
pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Bowie Knife | Fade (Factory New)net 19387.21 you get 0.001081 sells ≈7 a week — 6 of 7 days measured sell now to a buy order: 19 379.14 ₽ (you get 16 851.42)) · buy orders: 915
at a loss
★ Bowie Knife | Slaughter
Factory New
22 164.94 ₽ 1.54%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Bowie Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)net 19273.86 you get 0.013378
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 20 770.47 ₽ (you get 18 061.27)) · buy orders: 377
at a loss
★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel
Factory New
29 233.48 ₽ 1.54%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)net 25420.42 you get 0.013513
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 24 007.34 ₽ (you get 20 875.94)) · buy orders: 197
at a loss
★ Bowie Knife | Stained
Factory New
12 372.46 ₽ 1.54%
sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Bowie Knife | Stained (Factory New)net 12125.01 you get 0.013513 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 12 372.46 ₽ listings 4 · you get 12 125.01 ₽ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern no buy orders
at a loss
★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened
Factory New
95 309.26 ₽ 1.54%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)net 82877.62 you get 0.013513
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 21 870.14 ₽ (you get 19 017.51)) · buy orders: 155
★ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT
Factory New
not on Steam — above the cap 1.54%
pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New) you get 0.070000 no buy orders
at a loss
★ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest
Factory New
18 194.79 ₽ 1.54%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)net 15821.56 you get 0.070000
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 12 885.32 ₽ (you get 11 204.62)) · buy orders: 99
★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web
Factory New
not on Steam — above the cap 1.54%
pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) you get 0.070000 no buy orders
at a loss
★ Bowie Knife | Night
Factory New
32 121.79 ₽ 1.54%
sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Bowie Knife | Night (Factory New)net 31479.35 you get 0.070000 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 32 121.79 ₽ listings 4 · you get 31 479.35 ₽ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 11 121.06 ₽ (you get 9 670.48)) · buy orders: 110
at a loss
★ Bowie Knife | Scorched
Factory New
16 999.00 ₽ 1.54%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Bowie Knife | Scorched (Factory New)net 14781.74 you get 0.070000
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 7 562.89 ₽ (you get 6 576.42)) · buy orders: 65
★ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh
Factory New
not on Steam — above the cap 1.54%
pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New) you get 0.070000 sell now to a buy order: 12 048.61 ₽ (you get 10 477.05)) · buy orders: 47
★ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked
Factory New
not on Steam — above the cap 1.54%
pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New) you get 0.070000 sell now to a buy order: 13 089.00 ₽ (you get 11 381.73)) · buy orders: 33
at a loss
worst
★ Bowie Knife
no wear
9 924.40 ₽ 1.54%
pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Bowie Knifenet 8629.91 sells 16 a week sell now to a buy order: 7 940.61 ₽ (you get 6 904.87)) · buy orders: 1165

Craft variants Craft variants The same main collection (or the second one) with another partner — a different collection for balance. Click a variant to open its page with all the numbers. The variants may include a craft at a small loss: no more than 15% of the investment, if its most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee and that outcome's price is confirmed by sales.

Variant 1 this one The Wildfire Collection + The Breakout Collection
Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Breakout Collection Variant 4 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 5 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Breakout Collection Variant 6 The Spectrum Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection
Chains Pretty floats Interesting Cases Favorites Proven in practice How crafts work