Knives and gloves · The Wildfire Collection
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The Wildfire Collection + The CS20 Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5 About the craft Craft 1744008 · ways to build: 4 A contract of five Covert. The outcome is a knife or gloves from the inputs' collection, and its pool is large: the chance of a particular item is small, so what counts is the average over the whole pool. The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profit Average profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment. −5 937.20₽
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam». 33 142.46₽
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances. 27 205.26₽
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment. −17.9%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input. 14%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 76 402.30₽ · profit at most −49 197.04₽ (at most -64.4%) · chance of profit at most 8%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New) × 1 10% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 9656.66 → 20858.39 ₽
FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New) × 4 10% of the wear window fits at least ×2.37 23485.80 → 55543.92 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:
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To calculator I have items
The gain is understated. 6 outcomes have no price on Steam — they're above its cap and aren't listed. The calculation counts them as zero; they carry 18.5% of the probability.
Sell on a marketplace: CSFloat — outcomes: 3. They have no price on Steam (above its price cap or nobody listed them); they are counted at the marketplace's cheapest listing minus its fee, ignoring pattern and float, — that is 9.2% of the probability. Money from the marketplace is real money you can withdraw, while the investment comes from the Steam balance. Without them (as zero, like before) the profit is -7 430.39 ₽.

Craft variants Craft variants The same main collection (or the second one) with another partner — a different collection for balance. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.

+ a third collection
Variant 1 this one The Wildfire Collection + The CS20 Collection
−5 937.20 ₽ −17.9% chance of profit 14%
expensive: ★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) · 134 083.75 ₽ · chance 6.2%
no outcome price marketplace price Price from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real. sells slowly 72% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away. rare inputs The rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy. pricier variants exist Pattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
  • 1× M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0070
  • 4× FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0070
Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection
+128 244.80 ₽ +90.2% chance of profit 30%
expensive: ★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New) · 2 459 587.25 ₽ · chance 3.3%
no outcome price marketplace price Price from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real. sells slowly 39% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away. rare inputs The rarest input sells 1 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy. pricier variants exist Pattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
  • 1× FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0067
  • 4× SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0067
Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The CS20 Collection
+122 077.44 ₽ +83.6% chance of profit 30%
expensive: ★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New) · 2 459 587.25 ₽ · chance 3.3%
no outcome price marketplace price Price from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real. sells slowly 34% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away. rare inputs The rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy. pricier variants exist Pattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
  • 1× M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0070
  • 4× SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0070
Variant 4 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection
+60 013.20 ₽ +28.5% chance of profit 20%
expensive: ★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New) · 2 459 587.25 ₽ · chance 3.3%
no outcome price marketplace price Price from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real. sells slowly 39% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away. rare inputs The rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy. pricier variants exist Pattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
  • 1× FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0112
  • 4× Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0112
Variant 5 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The CS20 Collection
+53 845.84 ₽ +25.1% chance of profit 20%
expensive: ★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New) · 2 459 587.25 ₽ · chance 3.3%
no outcome price marketplace price Price from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real. sells slowly 34% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away. rare inputs The rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy. pricier variants exist Pattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
  • 1× M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0121
  • 4× Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0121
Variant 6 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection
−290.61 ₽ −0.9% chance of profit 21%
expensive: ★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New) · 393 645.60 ₽ · chance 0.3%
at a loss, a chance at an expensive one no outcome price marketplace price Price from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real. sells slowly 72% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away. rare inputs The rarest input sells 1 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy. pricier variants exist Pattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
  • 4× FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0069
  • 1× P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0069

How to build Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

10% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)
×1
M4A4 | The Battlestar
Factory New
buy 0.0000–0.0070
9 656.66 ₽
at 9 656.66
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.007065f′ (normalized) 0.011040wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 32 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0, new ~0.0 per day · little data: 3.0 d.
Lis-Skins: suitable 4 of 210 · from 10 903.42 ₽ (float 0.0069) · craft not before 15.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×4
FAMAS | Commemoration
Factory New
buy 0.0000–0.0070
23 485.80 ₽
at 5 871.45
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.007065f′ (normalized) 0.014131wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 61 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~1, new ~0.2 per day, cheapest usually 23 065.47 ₽
Lis-Skins: suitable 2 of 136 · from 8 440.75 ₽ (float 0.0056) · craft not before 15.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
Set · 5 pcs 33 142.46 ₽ -5 937.20 (-17.9%) Average float of the set average normalized 0.013513414 result 0.001081, 0.013378, 0.013513, 0.013513, 0.013513, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.000000, 0.001081, 0.013378, 0.013513, 0.013513, 0.013513, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.000000 «No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.

What you get 26 outcomes

  • Profitable outcome 14%
  • Losing outcome 68%
  • Above the Steam cap 18%
at a loss
★ Classic Knife | Fade
Factory New
29 922.67 ₽ 6.15%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Classic Knife | Fade (Factory New)net 26019.71 you get 0.001081The CS20 Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 27 500.48 ₽ (you get 23 913.46)) · buy orders: 609 sell on Market.CSGO: 22 599.93 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 24 780.63 · lots 8 price ignores float on CSFloat: from 20 629.90 ₽ listings: 128 on CS.Money: ~ 21 984.16 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 21 917.34 ₽ listings: 76
at a loss
★ Classic Knife | Slaughter
Factory New
19 547.88 ₽ 6.15%
pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Classic Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)net 16998.16 you get 0.013378The CS20 Collection sells 4 a week sell now to a buy order: 19 151.55 ₽ (you get 16 653.52)) · buy orders: 331 sell on Market.CSGO: 15 840.52 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 17 369.00 · lots 7 on CSFloat: from 14 502.78 ₽ listings: 38 on CS.Money: ~ 16 650.23 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 15 749.96 ₽ listings: 38
at a loss
★ Classic Knife | Blue Steel
Factory New
29 233.48 ₽ 6.15%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Classic Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)net 25420.42 you get 0.013513The CS20 Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 18 307.20 ₽ (you get 15 919.30)) · buy orders: 169 sell on Market.CSGO: 20 645.42 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 22 637.53 · lots 3 on CSFloat: from 17 338.06 ₽ listings: 6 on CS.Money: ~ 17 325.21 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 18 069.58 ₽ listings: 7
at a loss
★ Classic Knife | Stained
Factory New
24 671.89 ₽ 6.15%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Classic Knife | Stained (Factory New)net 21453.82 you get 0.013513The CS20 Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 14 434.43 ₽ (you get 12 551.67)) · buy orders: 133 sell on Market.CSGO: 14 103.35 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 15 464.20 · lots 3 on CSFloat: from 15 417.60 ₽ listings: 3 on CS.Money: ~ 13 574.24 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 16 126.00 ₽ listings: 5
at a loss
★ Classic Knife | Case Hardened
Factory New
31 665.02 ₽ 6.15%
pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Classic Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)net 27534.80 you get 0.013513The CS20 Collection sells 2 a week sell now to a buy order: 31 909.69 ₽ (you get 27 747.55)) · buy orders: 173 sell on Market.CSGO: 33 419.66 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 36 644.37 · lots 5 on CSFloat: from 25 954.41 ₽ listings: 17 on CS.Money: ~ 28 762.28 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 30 143.09 ₽ listings: 17
at a loss
★ Classic Knife | Forest DDPAT
Factory New
13 635.92 ₽ 6.15%
sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Classic Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)net 13363.20 you get 0.070000The CS20 Collection no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 13 635.92 ₽ listings 3 · you get 13 363.20 ₽ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 10 074.93 ₽ (you get 8 760.80)) · buy orders: 80 not listed on Market.CSGO right now on CSFloat: from 13 635.92 ₽ listings: 3
at a loss
★ Classic Knife | Boreal Forest
Factory New
30 066.71 ₽ 6.15%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Classic Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)net 26144.97 you get 0.070000The CS20 Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
no buy orders Market.CSGO: 1 lots — too few, no price
in profit
best
★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web
Factory New
154 196.31 ₽ 6.15%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)net 134083.75 you get 0.070000The CS20 Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 46 664.46 ₽ (you get 40 577.79)) · buy orders: 46 Market.CSGO: 2 lots — too few, no price on CSFloat: from 77 092.31 ₽ listings: 5 on Lis-Skins: from 83 832.75 ₽ listings: 6
in profit
★ Classic Knife | Scorched
Factory New
55 412.35 ₽ 6.15%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Classic Knife | Scorched (Factory New)net 48184.65 you get 0.070000The CS20 Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 15 881.22 ₽ (you get 13 809.75)) · buy orders: 57 Market.CSGO: 1 lots — too few, no price on CSFloat: from 33 856.37 ₽ listings: 3 Lis-Skins: 1 lots — too few, no price
at a loss
★ Classic Knife | Safari Mesh
Factory New
31 140.08 ₽ 6.15%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Classic Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New)net 27078.33 you get 0.070000The CS20 Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 13 571.90 ₽ (you get 11 801.65)) · buy orders: 85 Market.CSGO: 2 lots — too few, no price CSFloat: 1 lots — too few, no price on Lis-Skins: from 13 591.37 ₽ listings: 3
★ Classic Knife | Night Stripe
Factory New
not on Steam — above the cap 6.15%
pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Classic Knife | Night Stripe (Factory New) you get 0.070000The CS20 Collection no buy orders Market.CSGO: 1 lots — too few, no price Lis-Skins: 2 lots — too few, no price
★ Classic Knife | Urban Masked
Factory New
not on Steam — above the cap 6.15%
pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Classic Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New) you get 0.070000The CS20 Collection no buy orders not listed on Market.CSGO right now
at a loss
★ Classic Knife
no wear
21 107.64 ₽ 6.15%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Classic Knifenet 18354.47The CS20 Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 18 966.04 ₽ (you get 16 492.20)) · buy orders: 1036 sell on Market.CSGO: 14 800.90 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 16 229.06 · lots 20 on CSFloat: from 14 569.59 ₽ listings: 46 on CS.Money: ~ 17 079.37 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 14 473.65 ₽ listings: 54
at a loss
★ Bowie Knife | Fade
Factory New
22 295.29 ₽ 1.54%
pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Bowie Knife | Fade (Factory New)net 19387.21 you get 0.001081 sells ≈7 a week — 6 of 7 days measured sell now to a buy order: 19 379.14 ₽ (you get 16 851.42)) · buy orders: 915 sell on Market.CSGO: 16 506.28 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 18 099.00 · lots 29 price ignores float on CSFloat: from 14 988.46 ₽ listings: 78 on CS.Money: ~ 15 988.09 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 16 380.40 ₽ listings: 76
at a loss
★ Bowie Knife | Slaughter
Factory New
22 164.94 ₽ 1.54%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Bowie Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)net 19273.86 you get 0.013378
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 20 770.47 ₽ (you get 18 061.27)) · buy orders: 377 sell on Market.CSGO: 17 123.99 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 18 776.31 · lots 26 on CSFloat: from 16 179.11 ₽ listings: 24 on CS.Money: ~ 17 526.51 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 16 769.29 ₽ listings: 51
at a loss
★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel
Factory New
29 233.48 ₽ 1.54%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)net 25420.42 you get 0.013513
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 24 007.34 ₽ (you get 20 875.94)) · buy orders: 197 Market.CSGO: 1 lots — too few, no price Lis-Skins: 2 lots — too few, no price
at a loss
★ Bowie Knife | Stained
Factory New
12 372.46 ₽ 1.54%
sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Bowie Knife | Stained (Factory New)net 12125.01 you get 0.013513 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 12 372.46 ₽ listings 4 · you get 12 125.01 ₽ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern no buy orders Market.CSGO: 1 lots — too few, no price on CSFloat: from 12 372.46 ₽ listings: 4 on CS.Money: ~ 12 295.37 ₽
in profit
★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened
Factory New
95 309.26 ₽ 1.54%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)net 82877.62 you get 0.013513
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 21 870.14 ₽ (you get 19 017.51)) · buy orders: 155 not listed on Market.CSGO right now on CSFloat: from 37 689.57 ₽ listings: 7 CS.Money: price does not match Steam — not shown Lis-Skins: 2 lots — too few, no price
★ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT
Factory New
not on Steam — above the cap 1.54%
pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New) you get 0.070000 no buy orders Market.CSGO: 1 lots — too few, no price CSFloat: 1 lots — too few, no price on Lis-Skins: from 9 447.23 ₽ listings: 3
at a loss
★ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest
Factory New
18 194.79 ₽ 1.54%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)net 15821.56 you get 0.070000
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 12 885.32 ₽ (you get 11 204.62)) · buy orders: 99 Market.CSGO: 1 lots — too few, no price CSFloat: 1 lots — too few, no price Lis-Skins: 2 lots — too few, no price
★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web
Factory New
not on Steam — above the cap 1.54%
pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) you get 0.070000 no buy orders not listed on Market.CSGO right now CSFloat: 2 lots — too few, no price
at a loss
★ Bowie Knife | Night
Factory New
32 121.79 ₽ 1.54%
sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Bowie Knife | Night (Factory New)net 31479.35 you get 0.070000 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 32 121.79 ₽ listings 4 · you get 31 479.35 ₽ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 11 121.06 ₽ (you get 9 670.48)) · buy orders: 110 Market.CSGO: 1 lots — too few, no price on CSFloat: from 32 121.79 ₽ listings: 4 Lis-Skins: 1 lots — too few, no price
at a loss
★ Bowie Knife | Scorched
Factory New
16 999.00 ₽ 1.54%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Bowie Knife | Scorched (Factory New)net 14781.74 you get 0.070000
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 7 562.89 ₽ (you get 6 576.42)) · buy orders: 65 not listed on Market.CSGO right now CSFloat: 1 lots — too few, no price
★ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh
Factory New
not on Steam — above the cap 1.54%
pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New) you get 0.070000 sell now to a buy order: 12 048.61 ₽ (you get 10 477.05)) · buy orders: 47 not listed on Market.CSGO right now
★ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked
Factory New
not on Steam — above the cap 1.54%
pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New) you get 0.070000 sell now to a buy order: 13 089.00 ₽ (you get 11 381.73)) · buy orders: 33 not listed on Market.CSGO right now
at a loss
worst
★ Bowie Knife
no wear
9 924.40 ₽ 1.54%
pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Bowie Knifenet 8629.91 sells 16 a week sell now to a buy order: 7 940.61 ₽ (you get 6 904.87)) · buy orders: 1165 sell on Market.CSGO: 6 719.99 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 7 368.42 · lots 11 on CSFloat: from 6 844.08 ₽ listings: 23 on CS.Money: ~ 7 345.18 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 6 480.04 ₽ listings: 64
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