The Falchion Collection + The Recoil Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: this craft wasn't checked against the market overnight (only the best ones are) or there weren't enough listings — the numbers below are by average prices. «Check floats on Steam» will price it by live listings right now.

Average profit +14 580.89₸

Invest 98 114.46₸

Average return 112 695.35₸

ROI +14.9%

Chance of profit 38%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 228 310.38₸ · profit at most −115 615.03₸ (at most -50.6%) · chance of profit at most 10%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) × 1 8% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 18196.58 → 39304.60 ₸

AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) × 4 8% of the wear window fits at least ×2.37 79917.88 → 189005.79 ₸

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −72 855 ₸

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Recoil Collection

+14 580.90 ₸ +14.9% chance of profit 38%

expensive: ★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Minimal Wear) · 424 327.95 ₸ · chance 3.3%

profit on prices without salesat least −72 855 ₸

1× AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1694
4× AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0767

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Falchion Collection

+719 065.05 ₸ +94.7% chance of profit 32%

expensive: ★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New) · 12 972 772.51 ₸ · chance 3.3%

no outcome price

1× AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0071
4× SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0071

Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Recoil Collection

+600 484.26 ₸ +74.0% chance of profit 27%

expensive: ★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New) · 12 972 772.51 ₸ · chance 3.3%

no outcome price

1× AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0075
4× SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0075

Variant 4 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Falchion Collection

+359 186.36 ₸ +32.1% chance of profit 21%

expensive: ★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New) · 12 972 772.51 ₸ · chance 3.3%

no outcome price

1× AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0124
4× Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0124

Variant 5 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Recoil Collection

+240 605.57 ₸ +20.5% chance of profit 20%

expensive: ★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New) · 12 972 772.51 ₸ · chance 3.3%

no outcome price

1× AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0135
4× Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0135

Variant 6 The Breakout Collection instead of The Recoil Collection

−46 194.37 ₸ −8.8% chance of profit 37%

expensive: ★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) · 1 682 475.57 ₸ · chance 6.2%

at a loss, a chance at an expensive one no outcome price

1× AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0075
4× M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0075

How to build

8% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 8% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

AWP | Hyper Beast

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1694

18 196.58 ₸

at 18 196.58

Steam

×4

AWP | Chromatic Aberration

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0767

79 917.88 ₸

at 19 979.47

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 98 114.46 ₸ +14 580.89 (+14.9%)

What you get 37 outcomes

Profitable outcome 35%
Losing outcome 59%
About break-even 7%

Order

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Desert Shamagh

Minimal Wear

47 917.65 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | CAUTION!

Minimal Wear

96 414.53 ₸ 3.33%

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Giraffe

Minimal Wear

45 841.18 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Constrictor

Minimal Wear

58 740.71 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

about break-even

★ Moto Gloves | Blood Pressure

Minimal Wear

112 870.72 ₸ 3.33%

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Finish Line

Minimal Wear

93 116.47 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | 3rd Commando Company

Minimal Wear

47 071.27 ₸ 3.33%

Steam

about break-even

★ Moto Gloves | Smoke Out

Minimal Wear

108 821.59 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard

Minimal Wear

356 845.34 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar

Minimal Wear

60 334.57 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Rezan the Red

Minimal Wear

73 799.77 ₸ 3.33%

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie

Minimal Wear

152 016.93 ₸ 3.33%

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Field Agent

Minimal Wear

153 443.39 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade

Minimal Wear

250 005.02 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Lt. Commander

Minimal Wear

106 185.51 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike

Minimal Wear

205 700.42 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh

Minimal Wear

188 869.38 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Big Game

Minimal Wear

122 105.56 ₸ 3.33%

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Nocts

Minimal Wear

482 785.95 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

best

★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot

Minimal Wear

487 977.14 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Needle Point

Minimal Wear

31 650.44 ₸ 3.33%

Steam

at a loss

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade

Minimal Wear

73 191.32 ₸ 3.33%

Steam

at a loss

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Yellow-banded

Minimal Wear

42 197.28 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Unhinged

Minimal Wear

45 683.27 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Falchion Knife | Fade

Factory New

124 346.06 ₸ 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ Falchion Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

138 260.38 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Blue Steel

Minimal Wear

90 147.21 ₸ 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Stained

Minimal Wear

54 065.09 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Case Hardened

Minimal Wear

106 741.16 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Forest DDPAT

Minimal Wear

38 416.61 ₸ 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Boreal Forest

Minimal Wear

44 425.81 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web

Minimal Wear

123 554.17 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Night

Minimal Wear

53 367.60 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Scorched

Minimal Wear

37 077.98 ₸ 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Safari Mesh

Minimal Wear

33 569.31 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Urban Masked

Minimal Wear

57 156.02 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife

no wear

61 748.63 ₸ 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week -2 141.08 ₸ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +10 501.06 ₸ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Recoil Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 9 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1744855 · The Recoil Collection + The Horizon Collection · profit 15 143.87₸ · invest 105 191.56₸
profit on prices without salesat least −78 888 ₸ rare inputs pricier variants exist

Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)
Craft 1744857 · The Horizon Collection + The Recoil Collection · profit 15 143.87₸ · invest 105 191.56₸
profit on prices without salesat least −78 888 ₸ rare inputs pricier variants exist

Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)
Craft 1743985 · The Recoil Collection + The CS20 Collection · profit 14 898.94₸ · invest 98 953.40₸
profit on prices without salesat least −75 957 ₸ rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Commemoration (Minimal Wear) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested); AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.078828 instead of 0.076765
Craft 1743987 · The CS20 Collection + The Recoil Collection · profit 14 898.94₸ · invest 98 953.40₸
profit on prices without salesat least −75 957 ₸ rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Commemoration (Minimal Wear) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested); AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.078828 instead of 0.076765
Craft 1744595 · The Recoil Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit 14 580.90₸ · invest 98 114.46₸
profit on prices without salesat least −72 855 ₸ rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 1745173 · The Wildfire Collection + The Recoil Collection · profit 14 063.34₸ · invest 97 090.70₸
profit on prices without salesat least −73 312 ₸ rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested); AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.083568 instead of 0.076765
Craft 1745175 · The Recoil Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 14 063.34₸ · invest 97 090.70₸
profit on prices without salesat least −73 312 ₸ rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested); AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.083568 instead of 0.076765
Craft 1744899 · The Recoil Collection + The Huntsman Collection · profit 13 859.51₸ · invest 100 029.42₸
profit on prices without salesat least −75 657 ₸ rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Minimal Wear) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested); AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085135 instead of 0.076765
Craft 1744901 · The Huntsman Collection + The Recoil Collection · profit 13 859.51₸ · invest 100 029.42₸
profit on prices without salesat least −75 657 ₸ rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Minimal Wear) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested); AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085135 instead of 0.076765

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Recoil Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 37 outcomes

More

How to build