Knives and gloves · The Dreams & Nightmares Collection
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The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Wildfire Collection

StatTrak™ Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5 About the craft Craft 1749684 · ways to build: 1 StatTrak™ craft. Inputs and outcome are StatTrak: a normal item won't do here, and the outcome sells at the StatTrak price, not at the price of its normal counterpart. A contract of five Covert. The outcome is a knife or gloves from the inputs' collection, and its pool is large: the chance of a particular item is small, so what counts is the average over the whole pool. The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profit Average profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment. −14 359.46₽
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam». 32 147.52₽
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances. 17 788.06₽
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment. −44.7%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input. 13%

If buying now (with float)

invest 32 562.25₽ · profit −14 774.19₽ (-45.4%) · chance of profit 13%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Battle-Scarred) × 4 100% of the wear window fits ×1.01 27648.52 → 28063.25 ₽
StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Well-Worn) × 1 100% of the wear window fits ×1.00 4499.00 → 4499.00 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:
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To calculator I have items
The gain is understated. 2 outcomes have no price on Steam — they're above its cap and aren't listed. The calculation counts them as zero; they carry 5.3% of the probability.
Sell on a marketplace: CSFloat / Market.CSGO — outcomes: 4. They have no price on Steam (above its price cap or nobody listed them); they are counted at the marketplace's cheapest listing minus its fee, ignoring pattern and float, — that is 9.5% of the probability. Money from the marketplace is real money you can withdraw, while the investment comes from the Steam balance. Without them (as zero, like before) the profit is -19 704.22 ₽.
+ a third collection

How to build Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

100% of lots fit ≈ enough for 3 contracts · medium (by listings)
×4
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish
Battle-Scarred
any lot
27 648.52 ₽
at 6 912.13
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsf′ (normalized) 1.000000wear 0.4500–1.0000on the market 73 · good ≈ 73
×1
StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar
Well-Worn
any lot
4 499.00 ₽
at 4 499.00
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsf′ (normalized) 0.703125wear 0.3800–0.4500on the market 3 · good ≈ 3
Set · 5 pcs 32 147.52 ₽ -14 359.46 (-44.7%) Average float of the set average normalized 0.940625000 result 0.075250, 0.451500, 0.940625, 0.799531, 0.940625, 0.470313, 0.075250, 0.451500, 0.611406, 0.799531, 0.940625, 0.470313, 0.075250, 0.451500, 0.940625, 0.799531, 0.940625, 0.470313, 0.075250, 0.451500, 0.940625, 0.799531, 0.940625, 0.470313, 0.075250, 0.451500, 0.611406, 0.799531, 0.940625, 0.470313, 0.075250, 0.245156, 0.940625, 0.940625, 0.940625, 0.756062, 0.756062, 0.756062, 0.756062, 0.756062, 0.756062, 0.756062, 0.000000 «No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.

What you get 43 outcomes

  • Profitable outcome 13%
  • Losing outcome 81%
  • Above the Steam cap 5%
in profit
best
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler
Minimal Wear
142 741.55 ₽ 2.67%
sell on CSFloat price cut pricier variants exist 5 фазы — цена усреднена
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)net 139886.71 you get 0.075250 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 142 741.55 ₽ listings 6 · you get 139 886.71 ₽ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and patternlisted at 166 605.04 ₽, the better wear is cheaper sell now to a buy order: 170 746.99 ₽ (you get 148 475.64)) · buy orders: 65
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Freehand
Battle-Scarred
not on Steam — above the cap 2.67%
pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Freehand (Battle-Scarred) you get 0.451500 sell now to a buy order: 51 005.79 ₽ (you get 44 352.86)) · buy orders: 179
in profit
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Lore
Battle-Scarred
69 152.29 ₽ 2.67%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Battle-Scarred)net 60132.43 you get 0.940625
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 51 366.29 ₽ (you get 44 666.33)) · buy orders: 288
in profit
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic
Battle-Scarred
89 979.70 ₽ 2.67%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)net 78243.22 you get 0.799531
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 72 534.55 ₽ (you get 63 073.52)) · buy orders: 169
in profit
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate
Battle-Scarred
64 762.79 ₽ 2.67%
price without deals price cut pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)net 56315.47 you get 0.940625
by lot · 0 sales per day
listed at 72 840.65 ₽, the better wear is cheaper sell now to a buy order: 58 053.27 ₽ (you get 50 481.10)) · buy orders: 106
in profit
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water
Battle-Scarred
52 887.20 ₽ 2.67%
sell on Market.CSGO pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Battle-Scarred)net 50242.84 you get 0.470313 no price on Steam — listing on Market.CSGO from 52 887.20 ₽ listings 3 · you get 50 242.84 ₽ (5.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 49 078.01 ₽ (you get 42 676.53)) · buy orders: 228
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler
Minimal Wear
29 126.68 ₽ 2.67%
price without deals price cut pricier variants exist 5 фазы — цена усреднена
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)net 25327.55 you get 0.075250
by lot · 0 sales per day
listed at 54 987.68 ₽, the better wear is cheaper sell now to a buy order: 34 606.29 ₽ (you get 30 092.42)) · buy orders: 165
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Freehand
Battle-Scarred
8 454.23 ₽ 2.67%
price without deals price cut pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Freehand (Battle-Scarred)net 7351.50 you get 0.451500
by lot · 0 sales per day
listed at 15 000.00 ₽, the better wear is cheaper sell now to a buy order: 9 350.10 ₽ (you get 8 130.52)) · buy orders: 52
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Lore
Battle-Scarred
10 133.69 ₽ 2.67%
pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Lore (Battle-Scarred)net 8811.90 you get 0.611406 sells 11 a week sell now to a buy order: 10 051.98 ₽ (you get 8 740.85)) · buy orders: 125
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Autotronic
Battle-Scarred
9 423.10 ₽ 2.67%
price without deals price cut pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)net 8194.00 you get 0.799531
by lot · 1 sales per day
listed at 10 374.83 ₽, the better wear is cheaper sell now to a buy order: 10 331.21 ₽ (you get 8 983.66)) · buy orders: 116
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Black Laminate
Battle-Scarred
6 133.69 ₽ 2.67%
price without deals price cut pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)net 5333.64 you get 0.940625
by lot · 0 sales per day
listed at 7 717.20 ₽, the better wear is cheaper sell now to a buy order: 6 380.03 ₽ (you get 5 547.85)) · buy orders: 108
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Bright Water
Battle-Scarred
6 800.79 ₽ 2.67%
price without deals price cut pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Bright Water (Battle-Scarred)net 5913.73 you get 0.470313
by lot · 0 sales per day
listed at 15 683.86 ₽, the better wear is cheaper sell now to a buy order: 7 496.91 ₽ (you get 6 519.05)) · buy orders: 51
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler
Minimal Wear
12 528.73 ₽ 2.67%
price without deals price cut pricier variants exist 5 фазы — цена усреднена
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)net 10894.55 you get 0.075250
by lot · 0 sales per day
listed at 25 056.35 ₽, the better wear is cheaper sell now to a buy order: 15 912.77 ₽ (you get 13 837.19)) · buy orders: 123
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Freehand
Battle-Scarred
5 589.99 ₽ 2.67%
sell on Market.CSGO price cut pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Freehand (Battle-Scarred)net 5310.49 you get 0.451500 no price on Steam — listing on Market.CSGO from 5 589.99 ₽ listings 4 · you get 5 310.49 ₽ (5.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and patternlisted at 6 739.97 ₽, the better wear is cheaper sell now to a buy order: 6 498.60 ₽ (you get 5 650.95)) · buy orders: 112
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Lore
Battle-Scarred
6 321.03 ₽ 2.67%
price without deals price cut pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Battle-Scarred)net 5496.55 you get 0.940625
by lot · 0 sales per day
listed at 6 844.35 ₽, the better wear is cheaper sell now to a buy order: 6 261.45 ₽ (you get 5 444.73)) · buy orders: 151
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Autotronic
Battle-Scarred
4 909.32 ₽ 2.67%
price without deals price cut pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)net 4268.97 you get 0.799531
by lot · 0 sales per day
listed at 6 060.08 ₽, the better wear is cheaper sell now to a buy order: 5 729.78 ₽ (you get 4 982.41)) · buy orders: 116
at a loss
worst
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Black Laminate
Battle-Scarred
3 747.83 ₽ 2.67%
price without deals price cut pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)net 3258.98 you get 0.940625
by lot · 0 sales per day
listed at 4 753.18 ₽, the better wear is cheaper sell now to a buy order: 4 159.64 ₽ (you get 3 617.07)) · buy orders: 125
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water
Battle-Scarred
3 788.10 ₽ 2.67%
price without deals price cut pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water (Battle-Scarred)net 3294.00 you get 0.470313
by lot · 0 sales per day
listed at 6 854.61 ₽, the better wear is cheaper sell now to a buy order: 5 033.64 ₽ (you get 4 377.07)) · buy orders: 108
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler
Minimal Wear
24 179.29 ₽ 2.67%
price without deals price cut pricier variants exist 5 фазы — цена усреднена
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)net 21025.47 you get 0.075250
by lot · 0 sales per day
listed at 53 969.00 ₽, the better wear is cheaper no buy orders
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Freehand
Battle-Scarred
7 023.64 ₽ 2.67%
price without deals price cut pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Freehand (Battle-Scarred)net 6107.51 you get 0.451500
by lot · 0 sales per day
listed at 9 542.53 ₽, the better wear is cheaper sell now to a buy order: 7 218.65 ₽ (you get 6 277.08)) · buy orders: 67
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Lore
Battle-Scarred
8 025.91 ₽ 2.67%
pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Lore (Battle-Scarred)net 6979.05 you get 0.940625 sells 5 a week sell now to a buy order: 8 353.70 ₽ (you get 7 264.08)) · buy orders: 135
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Autotronic
Battle-Scarred
9 638.42 ₽ 2.67%
price without deals price cut pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)net 8381.23 you get 0.799531
by lot · 0 sales per day
listed at 10 895.99 ₽, the better wear is cheaper sell now to a buy order: 8 939.88 ₽ (you get 7 773.80)) · buy orders: 127
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Black Laminate
Battle-Scarred
5 819.19 ₽ 2.67%
price without deals price cut pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)net 5060.17 you get 0.940625
by lot · 1 sales per day
listed at 6 421.06 ₽, the better wear is cheaper no buy orders
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Bright Water
Battle-Scarred
4 829.95 ₽ 2.67%
price without deals price cut pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Bright Water (Battle-Scarred)net 4199.96 you get 0.470313
by lot · 0 sales per day
listed at 12 589.12 ₽, the better wear is cheaper sell now to a buy order: 9 113.91 ₽ (you get 7 925.13)) · buy orders: 28
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler
Minimal Wear
28 329.71 ₽ 2.67%
price without deals price cut pricier variants exist 5 фазы — цена усреднена
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)net 24634.53 you get 0.075250
by lot · 0 sales per day
listed at 40 297.19 ₽, the better wear is cheaper no buy orders
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Freehand
Battle-Scarred
not on Steam — above the cap 2.67%
pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Freehand (Battle-Scarred) you get 0.451500 sell now to a buy order: 6 246.15 ₽ (you get 5 431.43)) · buy orders: 147
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Lore
Battle-Scarred
9 742.63 ₽ 2.67%
pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Lore (Battle-Scarred)net 8471.85 you get 0.611406 sells 7 a week no buy orders
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Autotronic
Battle-Scarred
11 000.00 ₽ 2.67%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)net 9565.22 you get 0.799531
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 10 513.85 ₽ (you get 9 142.47)) · buy orders: 94
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Black Laminate
Battle-Scarred
5 909.55 ₽ 2.67%
price without deals price cut pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)net 5138.74 you get 0.940625
by lot · 0 sales per day
listed at 7 276.25 ₽, the better wear is cheaper sell now to a buy order: 6 128.54 ₽ (you get 5 329.16)) · buy orders: 119
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Bright Water
Battle-Scarred
6 018.93 ₽ 2.67%
price without deals price cut pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Bright Water (Battle-Scarred)net 5233.85 you get 0.470313
by lot · 1 sales per day
listed at 6 622.13 ₽, the better wear is cheaper no buy orders
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Fade
Minimal Wear
26 985.00 ₽ 1.54%
price without deals price cut pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)net 23465.22 you get 0.075250The Wildfire Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
listed at 55 412.35 ₽, the better wear is cheaper sell now to a buy order: 22 622.70 ₽ (you get 19 671.91)) · buy orders: 56
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Slaughter
Field-Tested
21 673.10 ₽ 1.54%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested)net 18846.17 you get 0.245156The Wildfire Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 15 760.73 ₽ (you get 13 704.98)) · buy orders: 85
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel
Battle-Scarred
13 847.27 ₽ 1.54%
price without deals price cut pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)net 12041.10 you get 0.940625The Wildfire Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
listed at 21 517.00 ₽, the better wear is cheaper sell now to a buy order: 8 110.82 ₽ (you get 7 052.88)) · buy orders: 92
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Stained
Battle-Scarred
12 625.00 ₽ 1.54%
price without deals price cut pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Stained (Battle-Scarred)net 10978.26 you get 0.940625The Wildfire Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
listed at 13 580.76 ₽, the better wear is cheaper sell now to a buy order: 9 528.92 ₽ (you get 8 286.01)) · buy orders: 74
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened
Battle-Scarred
18 846.19 ₽ 1.54%
price without deals price cut pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)net 16387.99 you get 0.940625The Wildfire Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
listed at 24 092.18 ₽, the better wear is cheaper sell now to a buy order: 17 997.37 ₽ (you get 15 649.88)) · buy orders: 111
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT
Battle-Scarred
5 667.57 ₽ 1.54%
price without deals price cut pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)net 4928.32 you get 0.756062The Wildfire Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
listed at 8 999.00 ₽, the better wear is cheaper no buy orders
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest
Battle-Scarred
7 173.79 ₽ 1.54%
price without deals price cut pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)net 6238.08 you get 0.756062The Wildfire Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
listed at 13 853.08 ₽, the better wear is cheaper no buy orders
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web
Battle-Scarred
17 000.00 ₽ 1.54%
price without deals price cut pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)net 14782.61 you get 0.756062The Wildfire Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
listed at 40 958.59 ₽, the better wear is cheaper no buy orders
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Night
Battle-Scarred
8 822.79 ₽ 1.54%
sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Night (Battle-Scarred)net 8646.33 you get 0.756062The Wildfire Collection no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 8 822.79 ₽ listings 3 · you get 8 646.33 ₽ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 6 406.80 ₽ (you get 5 571.13)) · buy orders: 95
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Scorched
Battle-Scarred
6 900.00 ₽ 1.54%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Scorched (Battle-Scarred)net 6000.00 you get 0.756062The Wildfire Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
no buy orders
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh
Battle-Scarred
6 885.00 ₽ 1.54%
price without deals price cut pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)net 5986.96 you get 0.756062The Wildfire Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
listed at 11 565.67 ₽, the better wear is cheaper sell now to a buy order: 6 852.41 ₽ (you get 5 958.61)) · buy orders: 55
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked
Battle-Scarred
7 000.00 ₽ 1.54%
price without deals price cut pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)net 6086.96 you get 0.756062The Wildfire Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
listed at 21 601.07 ₽, the better wear is cheaper no buy orders
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife
no wear
12 850.18 ₽ 1.54%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knifenet 11174.07The Wildfire Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 11 091.42 ₽ (you get 9 644.71)) · buy orders: 193

Craft variants Craft variants The same main collection (or the second one) with another partner — a different collection for balance. Click a variant to open its page with all the numbers. The variants may include a craft at a small loss: no more than 15% of the investment, if its most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee and that outcome's price is confirmed by sales.

Variant 1 this one The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Wildfire Collection
Variant 2 The Huntsman Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 3 The Phoenix Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection
Chains Pretty floats Interesting Cases Favorites Proven in practice How crafts work