Knives and gloves · The Breakout Collection
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The Breakout Collection

Restricted → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 10 About the craft Craft 1753535 · ways to build: 1 A contract of five Covert. The outcome is a knife or gloves from the inputs' collection, and its pool is large: the chance of a particular item is small, so what counts is the average over the whole pool. The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Prices by float: this craft wasn't checked against the market overnight (only the best ones are) or there weren't enough listings — the numbers below are by average prices. «Check floats on Steam» will price it by live listings right now.
Average profit Average profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment. +37 332.31₴
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam». 72 588.87₴
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances. 109 921.18₴
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment. +51.4%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input. 15%
From the outcome -15 060.52 if you feed everything on without selling
Selling intermediates +52 392.83 money arrives in 7 days; buy the replacement right away

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 210 507.73₴ · profit at most −100 586.55₴ (at most -47.8%) · chance of profit at most 0%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits or more than 10 pieces of one item. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
Nova | Koi (Factory New) × 500 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.90 72588.87 → 210507.73 ₴

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:
⋯ More
profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −11 540 ₴ Which itemsIf these items are never sold, the profit is at least −11 540 ₴: Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Factory New), ★ Butterfly Knife, ★ Butterfly Knife | Stained (Factory New), P90 | Asiimov (Factory New)
profit only from resale — without selling the intermediates the craft is at zero or negative: -15 060.52 ₴.
The gain is understated. 1 outcomes have no price on Steam — they're above its cap and aren't listed. The calculation counts them as zero; they carry 7.7% of the probability.
Sell on a marketplace: CSFloat — outcomes: 10. They have no price on Steam (above its price cap or nobody listed them); they are counted at the marketplace's cheapest listing minus its fee, ignoring pattern and float, — that is 76.9% of the probability. Money from the marketplace is real money you can withdraw, while the investment comes from the Steam balance. Without them (as zero, like before) the profit is -10 769.19 ₴.

Craft variants Craft variants The same collection at other rarity steps: which grade turns into which here. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.

Variant 1 this one Restricted → нож или перчатки
+37 332.31 ₴ +51.4% chance of profit 15%
expensive: ★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) · 167 149.24 ₴ · chance 7.7%
profit on prices without salesat least −11 540 ₴ profit only from resale Outcome alone -15061, selling intermediates +52393. Sale money arrives in 7 days; buy the replacement right away. no outcome price Outcome above the Steam cap: no price, the gain is understated marketplace price Price from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real. rare inputs The rarest input sells 18 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy. pricier variants exist Pattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
  • 10× Nova | Koi (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0040
Variant 2 Restricted → Classified
+797.81 ₴ +59.0% chance of profit 67%
expensive: Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Factory New) · 3 435.25 ₴ · chance 33%
profit on prices without salesat least −347 ₴ rare inputs The rarest input sells 12 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 9× CZ75-Auto | Tigris (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0758
  • 1× Nova | Koi (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0051
Variant 3 Covert → нож или перчатки
+3 662.07 ₴ +6.8% chance of profit 46%
expensive: ★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) · 167 149.24 ₴ · chance 7.7%
profit on prices without salesat least −5 765 ₴ no outcome price Outcome above the Steam cap: no price, the gain is understated marketplace price Price from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real. rare inputs The rarest input sells 7 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy. pricier variants exist Pattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
  • 5× M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0067

What to buy Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 chains · hard (by listings)
×500
Nova | Koi
Factory New
buy 0.0000–0.0040
72 588.87 ₴
at 145.18
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase details10 per contract, for each of the 50 first-step contractsexact upper edge 0.004054f′ (normalized) 0.013513wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 183 · good ≈ 4
on the market with this float, usually ~5, new per day — can't tell yet, cheapest usually 844.77 ₴ · little data: 0.0 d.
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 140) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
500
buy
Restricted
50
50 contracts
Classified
5
5 contracts
Covert
1
1 contract
knife or gloves

Craft on only from Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New), sell the rest. Buy the missing ones at 1 212.54 ₴.

Craft on only from M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New), sell the rest. Buy the missing ones at 10 773.26 ₴.

Set · 500 pcs 72 588.87 ₴ +37 332.31 (+51.4%) Average float of the set average normalized 0.013513414 result 0.001081, 0.013378, 0.013513, 0.013513, 0.013513, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.000000 «No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.

Chain steps 13 outcomes How the chain goes All steps are done in one day: a contract's outcome can go straight into the next one; the one-week trade hold doesn't apply to it. Only selling waits seven days: the final outcome and the intermediates worth selling. Finish in the chain builder — with filler from another collection or from your own intermediate items.

1

Restricted → Classified

50 contracts of 10 · 50 items drop
craft on
Desert Eagle | Conspiracy
Factory New
1 180.10 ₴ 33%
Steam Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New)fetches 1 026.17, no more than the replacement you get 0.0041
sell
Five-SeveN | Fowl Play
Factory New
3 950.54 ₴ 33%
price without deals
Steam Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Factory New)+2 222.71 each above the replacement
by lot · 0 sales per day
you get 0.0135
sell
Glock-18 | Water Elemental
Factory New
2 287.78 ₴ 33%
Steam Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New)+776.84 each above the replacement you get 0.0095
2

Classified → Covert

5 contracts of 10 · 5 items drop
craft on
M4A1-S | Cyrex
Factory New
10 773.26 ₴ 50%
Steam M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New)fetches 9 368.05, no more than the replacement you get 0.0068
sell
P90 | Asiimov
Factory New
13 493.39 ₴ 50%
price without deals
Steam P90 | Asiimov (Factory New)+960.12 each above the replacement
by lot · 0 sales per day
you get 0.0124
3

Covert → нож или перчатки

1 contract of 5 · 1 item drops · this is the chain outcome
  • Profitable outcome 15%
  • Losing outcome 69%
  • About break-even 8%
  • Above the Steam cap 8%
in profit
★ Butterfly Knife | Fade
Factory New
92 941.53 ₴ 7.69%
sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New)net 91082.70 you get 0.001081 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 92 941.53 ₴ listings 278 · you get 91 082.70 ₴ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 93 522.98 ₴ (you get 81 324.33)) · buy orders: 3645 sell on Market.CSGO: 94 132.26 ₴ to your card cheapest lot 103 215.20 · lots 25 price ignores float on CSFloat: from 92 941.53 ₴ listings: 278 on CS.Money: ~ 103 961.53 ₴ on Lis-Skins: from 94 300.18 ₴ listings: 193
at a loss
★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter
Factory New
57 525.55 ₴ 7.69%
sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)net 56375.04 you get 0.013378 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 57 525.55 ₴ listings 157 · you get 56 375.04 ₴ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 81 641.76 ₴ (you get 70 992.83)) · buy orders: 1363 sell on Market.CSGO: 64 514.13 ₴ to your card cheapest lot 70 739.17 · lots 13 on CSFloat: from 57 525.55 ₴ listings: 157 on CS.Money: ~ 71 723.82 ₴ on Lis-Skins: from 62 642.37 ₴ listings: 55
at a loss
★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel
Factory New
49 561.28 ₴ 7.69%
sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)net 48570.05 you get 0.013513 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 49 561.28 ₴ listings 10 · you get 48 570.05 ₴ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 52 620.68 ₴ (you get 45 757.11)) · buy orders: 505 sell on Market.CSGO: 54 852.46 ₴ to your card cheapest lot 60 145.24 · lots 3 on CSFloat: from 49 561.28 ₴ listings: 10 on CS.Money: ~ 54 111.65 ₴ on Lis-Skins: from 53 599.07 ₴ listings: 13
at a loss
★ Butterfly Knife | Stained
Factory New
57 680.58 ₴ 7.69%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Stained (Factory New)net 50157.02 you get 0.013513
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 47 345.98 ₴ (you get 41 170.41)) · buy orders: 361 Market.CSGO: 1 lots — too few, no price on CSFloat: from 39 282.77 ₴ listings: 6 on CS.Money: ~ 40 680.01 ₴ on Lis-Skins: from 38 732.49 ₴ listings: 21
at a loss
★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened
Factory New
58 065.51 ₴ 7.69%
sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)net 56904.20 you get 0.013513 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 58 065.51 ₴ listings 24 · you get 56 904.20 ₴ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 73 993.53 ₴ (you get 64 342.20)) · buy orders: 414 not listed on Market.CSGO right now on CSFloat: from 58 065.51 ₴ listings: 24 on CS.Money: ~ 61 513.53 ₴ on Lis-Skins: from 62 703.86 ₴ listings: 21
at a loss
worst
★ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT
Factory New
31 426.66 ₴ 7.69%
sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)net 30798.13 you get 0.070000 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 31 426.66 ₴ listings 5 · you get 30 798.13 ₴ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 30 957.20 ₴ (you get 26 919.30)) · buy orders: 128 Market.CSGO: 1 lots — too few, no price on CSFloat: from 31 426.66 ₴ listings: 5 on Lis-Skins: from 32 425.79 ₴ listings: 5
at a loss
★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest
Factory New
37 882.37 ₴ 7.69%
sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)net 37124.73 you get 0.070000 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 37 882.37 ₴ listings 3 · you get 37 124.73 ₴ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 40 262.95 ₴ (you get 35 011.25)) · buy orders: 135 Market.CSGO: 1 lots — too few, no price on CSFloat: from 37 882.37 ₴ listings: 3 on CS.Money: ~ 37 069.07 ₴ on Lis-Skins: from 38 244.14 ₴ listings: 9
in profit
best
★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web
Factory New
170 560.45 ₴ 7.69%
sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)net 167149.24 you get 0.070000 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 170 560.45 ₴ listings 3 · you get 167 149.24 ₴ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 89 470.38 ₴ (you get 77 800.33)) · buy orders: 177 Market.CSGO: 1 lots — too few, no price on CSFloat: from 170 560.45 ₴ listings: 3 on CS.Money: ~ 199 106.89 ₴ on Lis-Skins: from 199 717.32 ₴ listings: 7
at a loss
★ Butterfly Knife | Night
Factory New
57 171.42 ₴ 7.69%
sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Night (Factory New)net 56027.98 you get 0.070000 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 57 171.42 ₴ listings 6 · you get 56 027.98 ₴ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 53 682.43 ₴ (you get 46 680.37)) · buy orders: 154 Market.CSGO: 2 lots — too few, no price on CSFloat: from 57 171.42 ₴ listings: 6 Lis-Skins: 1 lots — too few, no price
at a loss
★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched
Factory New
38 151.68 ₴ 7.69%
sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched (Factory New)net 37388.65 you get 0.070000 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 38 151.68 ₴ listings 7 · you get 37 388.65 ₴ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern no buy orders not listed on Market.CSGO right now on CSFloat: from 38 151.68 ₴ listings: 7 on Lis-Skins: from 38 761.66 ₴ listings: 3
★ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh
Factory New
not on Steam — above the cap 7.69%
pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New) you get 0.070000 sell now to a buy order: 29 693.01 ₴ (you get 25 820.01)) · buy orders: 126 not listed on Market.CSGO right now on Lis-Skins: from 32 627.77 ₴ listings: 9
at a loss
★ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked
Factory New
44 794.56 ₴ 7.69%
sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)net 43898.67 you get 0.070000 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 44 794.56 ₴ listings 11 · you get 43 898.67 ₴ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 34 354.91 ₴ (you get 29 873.83)) · buy orders: 146 Market.CSGO: 1 lots — too few, no price on CSFloat: from 44 794.56 ₴ listings: 11 on Lis-Skins: from 45 641.08 ₴ listings: 4
about break-even
★ Butterfly Knife
no wear
83 250.99 ₴ 7.69%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knifenet 72392.17
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 66 624.39 ₴ (you get 57 934.25)) · buy orders: 3422 sell on Market.CSGO: 56 737.25 ₴ to your card cheapest lot 62 211.90 · lots 5 on CSFloat: from 50 476.02 ₴ listings: 105 on CS.Money: ~ 59 070.92 ₴ on Lis-Skins: from 52 367.45 ₴ listings: 107
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