Knives and gloves · The Dead Hand Collection
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The Dead Hand Collection

Classified → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 10 About the craft Craft 1753602 · ways to build: 1 A contract of five Covert. The outcome is a knife or gloves from the inputs' collection, and its pool is large: the chance of a particular item is small, so what counts is the average over the whole pool. The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profit Average profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment. +33 359.11₽
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam». 102 116.10₽
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances. 135 475.21₽
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment. +32.7%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input. 68%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 293 854.04₽ · profit at most −158 378.82₽ (at most -53.9%) · chance of profit at most 9%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits or more than 10 pieces of one item. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
P250 | Kintsugi (Minimal Wear) × 5 9% of the wear window fits at least ×2.47 5308.50 → 13112.00 ₽
P250 | Kintsugi (Factory New) × 45 9% of the wear window fits at least ×2.90 96807.60 → 280742.04 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:
⋯ More
Sell on a marketplace: CSFloat — outcomes: 16. They have no price on Steam (above its price cap or nobody listed them); they are counted at the marketplace's cheapest listing minus its fee, ignoring pattern and float, — that is 72.7% of the probability. Money from the marketplace is real money you can withdraw, while the investment comes from the Steam balance. Without them (as zero, like before) the profit is -74 870.81 ₽.

Craft variants Craft variants The same collection at other rarity steps: which grade turns into which here. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.

Variant 1 this one Classified → нож или перчатки
+33 359.11 ₽ +32.7% chance of profit 68%
expensive: ★ Sport Gloves | Ultra Violent (Factory New) · 366 000.01 ₽ · chance 4.5%
продажа ненадёжна marketplace price Price from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real. sells slowly 27% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away. float out of reach There are enough lots, but the needed float can't be reached with them: the craft can't be put together with the promised wears right now. rare inputs The rarest input sells 3 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× P250 | Kintsugi (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0773
  • 9× P250 | Kintsugi (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0064
Variant 2 Restricted → Classified
+1 050.06 ₽ +55.6% chance of profit 67%
expensive: AK-47 | Crane Flight (Factory New) · 5 140.41 ₽ · chance 33%
sells slowly
  • 9× MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0770
  • 1× MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0062
Variant 3 Classified → Covert
+3 106.65 ₽ +47.2% chance of profit 100%
expensive: AWP | Queen's Gambit (Minimal Wear) · 9 996.43 ₽ · chance 50%
float out of reach
  • 8× P90 | Deathgaze (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1683
  • 2× P250 | Kintsugi (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0763
Variant 4 Covert → нож или перчатки
+29 360.56 ₽ +27.7% chance of profit 64%
expensive: ★ Sport Gloves | Ultra Violent (Factory New) · 366 000.01 ₽ · chance 4.5%
продажа ненадёжна marketplace price Price from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real. sells slowly 27% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away. float out of reach There are enough lots, but the needed float can't be reached with them: the craft can't be put together with the promised wears right now. rare inputs The rarest input sells 4 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 5× Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0135

What to buy Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

9% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 chains · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 9% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one; 50 pcs needed, and about 3 sell per day — buying will take 17 days, and the price will move in the meantime. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×5
P250 | Kintsugi
Minimal Wear
buy 0.0700–0.0773
5 308.50 ₽
at 1 061.70
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase details1 per contract, for each of the 5 first-step contractsexact upper edge 0.077339f′ (normalized) 0.077339wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 279 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0, new ~0.0 per day
×45
P250 | Kintsugi
Factory New
buy 0.0000–0.0064
96 807.60 ₽
at 2 151.28
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase details9 per contract, for each of the 5 first-step contractsexact upper edge 0.006421f′ (normalized) 0.006421wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 84 · good ≈ 17
on the market with this float, usually ~17, new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 5 868.23 ₽
50
buy
Classified
5
5 contracts
Covert
1
1 contract
knife or gloves

Craft on only from AWP | Queen's Gambit (Factory New), Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New), sell the rest. Buy the missing ones at 21 222.93 ₽.

Set · 50 pcs 102 116.10 ₽ +33 359.11 (+32.7%) Average float of the set average normalized 0.013513414 all outcomes come out at 0.070000 «No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.

Chain steps 22 outcomes How the chain goes All steps are done in one day: a contract's outcome can go straight into the next one; the one-week trade hold doesn't apply to it. Only selling waits seven days: the final outcome and the intermediates worth selling. Finish in the chain builder — with filler from another collection or from your own intermediate items.

1

Classified → Covert

5 contracts of 10 · 5 items drop
craft on
AWP | Queen's Gambit
Factory New
23 282.87 ₽ 50%
Steam AWP | Queen's Gambit (Factory New)fetches 20 245.97, no more than the replacement you get 0.0135
craft on
Glock-18 | Fully Tuned
Factory New
20 721.15 ₽ 50%
Steam Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New)fetches 18 018.39, no more than the replacement you get 0.0135
2

Covert → нож или перчатки

1 contract of 5 · 1 item drops · this is the chain outcome
  • Profitable outcome 64%
  • Losing outcome 23%
  • About break-even 14%
in profit
★ Driver Gloves | Brocade Crane
Factory New
113 636.63 ₽ 4.55%
sell on CSFloat
Steam ★ Driver Gloves | Brocade Crane (Factory New)net 111363.89 you get 0.070000 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 113 636.63 ₽ listings 4 · you get 111 363.89 ₽ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 85 373.02 ₽ (you get 74 237.40)) · buy orders: 27
in profit
★ Driver Gloves | Brocade Flowers
Factory New
133 658.36 ₽ 4.55%
sell on CSFloat
Steam ★ Driver Gloves | Brocade Flowers (Factory New)net 130985.19 you get 0.070000 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 133 658.36 ₽ listings 7 · you get 130 985.19 ₽ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern
in profit
★ Driver Gloves | Dragon Fists
Factory New
147 252.80 ₽ 4.55%
price without deals
Steam ★ Driver Gloves | Dragon Fists (Factory New)net 128045.91 you get 0.070000
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 62 695.81 ₽ (you get 54 518.09)) · buy orders: 31
about break-even
★ Driver Gloves | Garden
Factory New
102 190.14 ₽ 4.55%
sell on CSFloat
Steam ★ Driver Gloves | Garden (Factory New)net 100146.33 you get 0.070000 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 102 190.14 ₽ listings 3 · you get 100 146.33 ₽ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern no buy orders
in profit
★ Driver Gloves | Hand Sweaters
Factory New
126 000.00 ₽ 4.55%
price without deals
Steam ★ Driver Gloves | Hand Sweaters (Factory New)net 109565.22 you get 0.070000
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 50 155.69 ₽ (you get 43 613.64)) · buy orders: 53
at a loss
★ Driver Gloves | Plum Quill
Factory New
80 500.00 ₽ 4.55%
price without deals
Steam ★ Driver Gloves | Plum Quill (Factory New)net 70000.00 you get 0.070000
by lot · 0 sales per day
no buy orders
at a loss
★ Driver Gloves | Seigaiha
Factory New
102 798.53 ₽ 4.55%
price without deals
Steam ★ Driver Gloves | Seigaiha (Factory New)net 89390.03 you get 0.070000
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 47 090.94 ₽ (you get 40 948.64)) · buy orders: 28
in profit
★ Driver Gloves | Wave Chaser
Factory New
157 952.72 ₽ 4.55%
sell on CSFloat
Steam ★ Driver Gloves | Wave Chaser (Factory New)net 154793.66 you get 0.070000 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 157 952.72 ₽ listings 11 · you get 154 793.66 ₽ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 141 036.64 ₽ (you get 122 640.55)) · buy orders: 7
in profit
★ Specialist Gloves | Lime Polycam
Factory New
119 769.75 ₽ 4.55%
sell on CSFloat
Steam ★ Specialist Gloves | Lime Polycam (Factory New)net 117374.35 you get 0.070000 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 119 769.75 ₽ listings 8 · you get 117 374.35 ₽ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 121 657.50 ₽ (you get 105 789.13)) · buy orders: 16
in profit
★ Specialist Gloves | Cloud Chaser
Factory New
136 196.41 ₽ 4.55%
sell on CSFloat
Steam ★ Specialist Gloves | Cloud Chaser (Factory New)net 133472.48 you get 0.070000 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 136 196.41 ₽ listings 12 · you get 133 472.48 ₽ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern
in profit
★ Specialist Gloves | Blackbook
Factory New
128 401.52 ₽ 4.55%
sell on CSFloat
Steam ★ Specialist Gloves | Blackbook (Factory New)net 125833.48 you get 0.070000 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 128 401.52 ₽ listings 5 · you get 125 833.48 ₽ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 102 450.49 ₽ (you get 89 087.38)) · buy orders: 58
about break-even
★ Specialist Gloves | Chocolate Chesterfield
Factory New
113 680.40 ₽ 4.55%
price without deals
Steam ★ Specialist Gloves | Chocolate Chesterfield (Factory New)net 98852.52 you get 0.070000
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 66 590.57 ₽ (you get 57 904.84)) · buy orders: 24
in profit
★ Specialist Gloves | Pillow Punchers
Factory New
370 995.60 ₽ 4.55%
sell on CSFloat
Steam ★ Specialist Gloves | Pillow Punchers (Factory New)net 363575.68 you get 0.070000 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 370 995.60 ₽ listings 8 · you get 363 575.68 ₽ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern
in profit
★ Specialist Gloves | Sunburst
Factory New
121 734.75 ₽ 4.55%
sell on CSFloat
Steam ★ Specialist Gloves | Sunburst (Factory New)net 119300.05 you get 0.070000 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 121 734.75 ₽ listings 4 · you get 119 300.05 ₽ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 68 297.46 ₽ (you get 59 389.09)) · buy orders: 21
in profit
★ Specialist Gloves | Big Swell
Factory New
144 132.64 ₽ 4.55%
sell on CSFloat
Steam ★ Specialist Gloves | Big Swell (Factory New)net 141249.98 you get 0.070000 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 144 132.64 ₽ listings 6 · you get 141 249.98 ₽ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern no buy orders
in profit
★ Sport Gloves | Violet Beadwork
Factory New
137 052.99 ₽ 4.55%
sell on CSFloat
Steam ★ Sport Gloves | Violet Beadwork (Factory New)net 134311.93 you get 0.070000 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 137 052.99 ₽ listings 5 · you get 134 311.93 ₽ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern
at a loss
★ Sport Gloves | Frosty
Factory New
91 176.22 ₽ 4.55%
sell on CSFloat
Steam ★ Sport Gloves | Frosty (Factory New)net 89352.69 you get 0.070000 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 91 176.22 ₽ listings 4 · you get 89 352.69 ₽ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 76 834.76 ₽ (you get 66 812.83)) · buy orders: 18
at a loss
★ Sport Gloves | Blaze
Factory New
74 950.85 ₽ 4.55%
sell on CSFloat
Steam ★ Sport Gloves | Blaze (Factory New)net 73451.83 you get 0.070000 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 74 950.85 ₽ listings 7 · you get 73 451.83 ₽ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern no buy orders
at a loss
worst
★ Sport Gloves | Creme Pinstripe
Factory New
66 722.54 ₽ 4.55%
sell on CSFloat
Steam ★ Sport Gloves | Creme Pinstripe (Factory New)net 65388.08 you get 0.070000 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 66 722.54 ₽ listings 3 · you get 65 388.08 ₽ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 65 225.06 ₽ (you get 56 717.44)) · buy orders: 24
about break-even
★ Sport Gloves | Red Racer
Factory New
119 074.05 ₽ 4.55%
price without deals
Steam ★ Sport Gloves | Red Racer (Factory New)net 103542.65 you get 0.070000
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 102 450.49 ₽ (you get 89 087.38)) · buy orders: 34
in profit
best
★ Sport Gloves | Ultra Violent
Factory New
373 469.40 ₽ 4.55%
sell on CSFloat
Steam ★ Sport Gloves | Ultra Violent (Factory New)net 366000.01 you get 0.070000 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 373 469.40 ₽ listings 15 · you get 366 000.01 ₽ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 170 746.99 ₽ (you get 148 475.64)) · buy orders: 49
in profit
★ Sport Gloves | Occult
Factory New
157 610.94 ₽ 4.55%
sell on CSFloat
Steam ★ Sport Gloves | Occult (Factory New)net 154458.72 you get 0.070000 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 157 610.94 ₽ listings 8 · you get 154 458.72 ₽ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 164 670.09 ₽ (you get 143 191.38)) · buy orders: 14
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