Crafts · The Shadow Collection
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The Shadow Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted About the craft Craft 2038461 · ways to build: 5 The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profit Average profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment. +904.34₽
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the needed wear, regardless of float. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase. 1 306.53₽
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances. 2 210.87₽
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment. +69.2%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input. 48%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 3 334.05₽ · profit at most −1 123.17₽ (−33.7%) · chance of profit at most 22%

The estimate is made from the market at the time of the nightly check. Since then cheap listings with the needed float may have been bought or relisted. The «Check floats on Steam» button shows the current price.

The float window is very narrow: less than 30% of the wear range fits. The markup was not measured for such a case. The purchase will cost at least the stated number of times more. How much more is unknown, so the investment is shown as “at least” and the profit as “at most”.
XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear) × 1 5% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 41.31 → 89.23 ₽
MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested) × 1 5% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 74.66 → 161.27 ₽
UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) × 8 5% of the wear range fits at least ×2.59 1 190.56 → 3 083.55 ₽

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Check:
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To calculator I have items
+ a third collection

How to build Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

5% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 5% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×1
XM1014 | Scumbria
Minimal Wear
buy 0.0700–0.0741
41.31 ₽
at 41.31
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.074106f′ (normalized) 0.074106wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 77 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 108) · data 09.10 14:48 MSK
×1
MAG-7 | Firestarter
Field-Tested
buy 0.1500–0.1618
74.66 ₽
at 74.66
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.161805f′ (normalized) 0.236756wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 104 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
Lis-Skins: suitable 2 of 55 · from 147.40 ₽ (float 0.1610) · craft not before 17.10 · data 09.10 14:48 MSK
×8
UMP-45 | Delusion
Minimal Wear
buy 0.0700–0.0741
1 190.56 ₽
at 148.82
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.074106f′ (normalized) 0.048642wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 79 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 100) · data 09.10 14:48 MSK
Set · 10 pcs 1 306.53 ₽ +904.34 (+69.2%) Average float of the set average normalized 0.069999900 result 0.036100, 0.056000, 0.047600, 0.070000, 0.063000, 0.070000, 0.043400, 0.063000 «No higher than» is a guarantee. Take every item with the float at the upper limit and you get exactly the result shown.

What you get 8 outcomes

  • Profitable outcome 48%
  • Losing outcome 52%
at a loss
Glock-18 | Grinder
Factory New
673.26 ₽ 22.50%
Steam Glock-18 | Grinder (Factory New)net 585.44 ₽ you get 0.036100The Vanguard Collection sells about 59 a week (data for 6 days of 7)) sell now to a buy order: 859.66 ₽ (you get 747.53 ₽)) · buy orders: 14620 sell on Market.CSGO: 600.78 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 658.75 · lots 66 on CSFloat: from 614.68 ₽ listings: 430 on CS.Money: ~ 627.41 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 651.19 ₽ listings: 240
in profit
best
M4A4 | Griffin
Factory New
7 292.16 ₽ 22.50%
Steam M4A4 | Griffin (Factory New)net 6 341.01 ₽ you get 0.056000The Vanguard Collection sells 16 a week sell now to a buy order: 6 446.96 ₽ (you get 5 606.05 ₽)) · buy orders: 5075 sell on Market.CSGO: 5 528.53 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 6 061.99 · lots 25 on CSFloat: from 6 093.31 ₽ listings: 56 on CS.Money: ~ 5 813.13 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 5 951.52 ₽ listings: 106
in profit
M4A1-S | Basilisk
Factory New
2 343.25 ₽ 22.50%
Steam M4A1-S | Basilisk (Factory New)net 2 037.61 ₽ you get 0.047600The Vanguard Collection sells 44 a week sell now to a buy order: 2 485.27 ₽ (you get 2 161.10 ₽)) · buy orders: 4448 sell on Market.CSGO: 1 944.38 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 2 132.00 · lots 62 on CSFloat: from 1 901.77 ₽ listings: 194 on CS.Money: ~ 1 957.80 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 1 920.45 ₽ listings: 192
at a loss
Sawed-Off | Highwayman
Factory New
589.00 ₽ 22.50%
price without deals
Steam Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Factory New)net 512.17 ₽ you get 0.070000The Vanguard Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
no buy orders sell on Market.CSGO: 479.34 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 525.60 · lots 7 on CSFloat: from 458.46 ₽ listings: 23 on CS.Money: ~ 374.41 ₽ Lis-Skins: 1 listings, too few, no price
in profit
Galil AR | Stone Cold
Factory New
1 883.81 ₽ 2.50%
Steam Galil AR | Stone Cold (Factory New)net 1 638.10 ₽ you get 0.063000 sells about 25 a week (data for 6 days of 7)) sell now to a buy order: 2 001.41 ₽ (you get 1 740.35 ₽)) · buy orders: 4669 sell on Market.CSGO: 1 537.20 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 1 685.53 · lots 35 on CSFloat: from 1 519.72 ₽ listings: 108 on CS.Money: ~ 1 535.85 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 1 540.94 ₽ listings: 117
at a loss
M249 | Nebula Crusader
Factory New
644.84 ₽ 2.50%
price without deals
Steam M249 | Nebula Crusader (Factory New)net 560.73 ₽ you get 0.070000
by lot · 2 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 615.82 ₽ (you get 535.49 ₽)) · buy orders: 3342 sell on Market.CSGO: 526.13 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 576.90 · lots 14 on CSFloat: from 594.30 ₽ listings: 43 on CS.Money: ~ 511.10 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 493.27 ₽ listings: 38
at a loss
worst
MP7 | Special Delivery
Factory New
422.61 ₽ 2.50%
Steam MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New)net 367.49 ₽ you get 0.043400 sells 24 a week sell now to a buy order: 506.81 ₽ (you get 440.70 ₽)) · buy orders: 4069 sell on Market.CSGO: 418.88 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 459.30 · lots 16 on CSFloat: from 369.32 ₽ listings: 63 on CS.Money: ~ 357.43 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 390.54 ₽ listings: 68
at a loss
P250 | Wingshot
Factory New
669.94 ₽ 2.50%
Steam P250 | Wingshot (Factory New)net 582.56 ₽ you get 0.063000 sells 21 a week sell now to a buy order: 600.52 ₽ (you get 522.19 ₽)) · buy orders: 5454 sell on Market.CSGO: 522.22 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 572.61 · lots 34 on CSFloat: from 493.27 ₽ listings: 112 on CS.Money: ~ 506.86 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 504.31 ₽ listings: 109

Craft variants Craft variants One of this craft's two collections paired with another collection, same rarity. Click a variant to open its page with all the numbers. The variants may include a craft at a small loss: no more than 15% of the investment, if its most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee and that outcome's price is confirmed by sales.

Variant 1 this one The Shadow Collection + The Vanguard Collection
Variant 2 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection Variant 3 only The Vanguard Collection Variant 4 The Wildfire Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 5 The Winter Offensive Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 6 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Shadow Collection
Chains Pretty floats Interesting Cases Favorites Proven in practice How crafts work