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The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Train 2025 Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit +29.98$

Invest 27.24$

Average return 57.22$

ROI +110.1%

Chance of profit 40%

With float: invest at least 69.68 $, profit at most −12.46 $

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

≈2% of lots fit: the price is understated

×1

Souvenir MP9 | Music Box

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0076

4.16 $

at 4.16

souvenirSteam

×9

XM1014 | Run Run Run

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0076

23.08 $

at 2.56

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 27.24 $ +29.98 (+110.1%)

What you get 6 outcomes

Profitable outcome 40%
Losing outcome 60%

at a loss

worst

MAC-10 | Derailment

Factory New

float up to 0.007446

8.83 $ 30.00%

Steam

at a loss

Zeus x27 | Charged Up

Factory New

float up to 0.010638

12.83 $ 30.00%

Steam

in profit

best

Tec-9 | Whiteout

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

175.83 $ 30.00%

Steam

in profit

AUG | Sand Storm

Factory New

float up to 0.005319

42.01 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.067872

113.11 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

XM1014 | Elegant Vines

Factory New

float up to 0.003936

41.56 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Train 2025 Collection

Variant 2 only The Train 2025 Collection Variant 3 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection Variant 4 The Vanguard Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection Variant 5 The Winter Offensive Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection Variant 6 The Wildfire Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +18.77 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +24.85 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The 2021 Mirage Collection and The Train 2025 Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 54 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2078489 · The Gamma 2 Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 30.30$ · invest 23.96$
sells slowly

XM1014 | Slipstream (Factory New) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.007668
Craft 2089723 · The Train 2025 Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 30.17$ · invest 26.08$
sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007369 instead of 0.007668
Craft 2058227 · The Ancient Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 29.53$ · invest 27.22$
sells slowly rare inputs

Souvenir FAMAS | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.006439 instead of 0.007668
Craft 2089681 · The Train 2025 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 29.48$ · invest 24.83$
sells slowly rare inputs

UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.004494 instead of 0.007668
Craft 2051757 · The 2018 Inferno Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 28.82$ · invest 23.87$
sells slowly pricier variants exist

Sawed-Off | Brake Light (Factory New) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.004332 instead of 0.007668
Craft 2088476 · The Safehouse Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 28.77$ · invest 23.82$
sells slowly

Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007308 instead of 0.007668
Craft 2086002 · The Phoenix Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 28.72$ · invest 23.71$
sells slowly rare inputs

UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.005684 instead of 0.007668
Craft 2052530 · The 2018 Nuke Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 28.72$ · invest 24.90$
sells slowly rare inputs

MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Factory New) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.007668
Craft 2074921 · The Falchion Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 28.68$ · invest 23.79$
sells slowly

UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007889 instead of 0.007668
Craft 2088889 · The Shattered Web Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 28.60$ · invest 25.20$
sells slowly rare inputs

M249 | Warbird (Minimal Wear) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.005232 instead of 0.007668
Craft 2082053 · The Horizon Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 28.53$ · invest 23.99$
sells slowly rare inputs

Dual Berettas | Shred (Factory New) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.007668
Craft 2085465 · The Overpass 2024 Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 28.52$ · invest 23.72$
sells slowly

Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.007668
Craft 2089066 · The Snakebite Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 28.51$ · invest 23.57$
sells slowly

UMP-45 | Oscillator (Factory New) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.007668
Craft 2068009 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 28.47$ · invest 23.65$
sells slowly

M249 | Spectre (Factory New) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.007668
Craft 2066804 · The Chroma 2 Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 28.47$ · invest 23.43$
sells slowly

Negev | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.005541 instead of 0.007668
Craft 2061240 · The Ascent Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 28.45$ · invest 23.98$
sells slowly

P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007752 instead of 0.007668
Craft 2071414 · The Danger Zone Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 28.42$ · invest 23.39$
sells slowly

Tec-9 | Fubar (Field-Tested) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.005968 instead of 0.007668
Craft 2079253 · The Gamma Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 28.41$ · invest 23.59$
sells slowly rare inputs

P250 | Iron Clad (Minimal Wear) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.005870 instead of 0.007668
Craft 2088137 · The Revolver Case Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 28.41$ · invest 23.74$
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Outbreak (Factory New) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.007668
Craft 2062520 · The Boreal Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 28.40$ · invest 23.47$
sells slowly

MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Factory New) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007752 instead of 0.007668
Craft 2068853 · The Chroma Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 28.40$ · invest 23.97$
sells slowly rare inputs

XM1014 | Quicksilver (Factory New) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.007668
Craft 2087154 · The Radiant Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 28.38$ · invest 23.86$
sells slowly

M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.007668
Craft 2073657 · The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 28.37$ · invest 23.32$
sells slowly

SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Factory New) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007703 instead of 0.007668
Craft 2089702 · The Train 2025 Collection + The Winter Offensive Collection · profit 28.35$ · invest 24.69$
sells slowly rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Minimal Wear) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.003780 instead of 0.007668
Craft 2089378 · The Spectrum Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 28.35$ · invest 23.60$
sells slowly rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.007668
Craft 2076682 · The Fracture Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 28.34$ · invest 23.41$
sells slowly

SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007889 instead of 0.007668
Craft 2088645 · The Shadow Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 28.34$ · invest 24.11$
sells slowly rare inputs

MAC-10 | Rangeen (Factory New) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.007668
Craft 2083381 · The Kilowatt Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 28.33$ · invest 23.39$
sells slowly

Nova | Dark Sigil (Factory New) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007887 instead of 0.007668
Craft 2086805 · The Prisma Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 28.32$ · invest 24.30$
sells slowly

FAMAS | Crypsis (Factory New) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New)
Craft 2077710 · The Gallery Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 28.32$ · invest 23.76$
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Trail Blazer (Factory New) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007892 instead of 0.007668
Craft 2057188 · The Achroma Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 28.30$ · invest 23.84$
sells slowly

P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007825 instead of 0.007668
Craft 2081413 · The Harlequin Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 28.30$ · invest 23.93$
sells slowly

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007889 instead of 0.007668
Craft 2089539 · The Sport & Field Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 28.29$ · invest 23.99$
sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

P250 | Small Game (Factory New) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007889 instead of 0.007668
Craft 2089234 · The Spectrum 2 Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 28.28$ · invest 23.51$
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.007668
Craft 2086412 · The Prisma 2 Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 28.27$ · invest 23.63$
sells slowly rare inputs

R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Factory New) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007752 instead of 0.007668
Craft 2069981 · The Clutch Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 28.26$ · invest 23.47$
sells slowly rare inputs

XM1014 | Oxide Blaze (Factory New) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007889 instead of 0.007668
Craft 2063971 · The Breakout Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 28.24$ · invest 23.66$
sells slowly rare inputs

Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.007668
Craft 2087483 · The Recoil Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 28.23$ · invest 23.48$
sells slowly

Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007889 instead of 0.007668
Craft 2065026 · The CS20 Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 28.21$ · invest 23.87$
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007783 instead of 0.007668
Craft 2087837 · The Revolution Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 28.19$ · invest 23.49$
sells slowly

SCAR-20 | Fragments (Factory New) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007976 instead of 0.007668
Craft 2079897 · The Genesis Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 28.08$ · invest 23.87$
sells slowly rare inputs

MAG-7 | MAGnitude (Factory New) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.008148 instead of 0.007668
Craft 2072442 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 28.07$ · invest 23.90$
sells slowly

UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.008148 instead of 0.007668
Craft 2083628 · The Lake Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 28.04$ · invest 23.54$
sells slowly

SG 553 | Anodized Navy (Factory New) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.004332 instead of 0.007668
Craft 2080530 · The Glove Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 27.95$ · invest 27.10$
sells slowly rare inputs

MAG-7 | Sonar (Factory New) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007451 instead of 0.007668
Craft 2075831 · The Fever Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 27.93$ · invest 23.82$
sells slowly rare inputs

P2000 | Sure Grip (Factory New) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.008079 instead of 0.007668
Craft 2082807 · The Italy Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 27.92$ · invest 23.74$
sells slowly rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Factory New) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007752 instead of 0.007668
Craft 2061830 · The Bank Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 27.91$ · invest 24.73$
sells slowly

Desert Eagle | Meteorite (Factory New) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.006040 instead of 0.007668
Craft 2089693 · The Train 2025 Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 27.88$ · invest 25.38$
sells slowly rare inputs

MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Factory New) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.007668
Craft 2059755 · The Arabesque Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 27.88$ · invest 25.08$
sells slowly rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Lunar Wyrm (Factory New) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.008148 instead of 0.007668
Craft 2082548 · The Huntsman Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 27.83$ · invest 24.57$
sells slowly

SSG 08 | Slashed (Field-Tested) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.006217 instead of 0.007668
Craft 2089676 · The Train 2025 Collection + The Train Collection · profit 27.79$ · invest 23.78$
sells slowly

Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Factory New) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007308 instead of 0.007668
Craft 2084402 · The Operation Broken Fang Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 27.62$ · invest 26.09$
sells slowly rare inputs

P90 | Cocoa Rampage (Factory New) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007752 instead of 0.007668
Craft 2089583 · The Spy Tech Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 27.57$ · invest 25.55$
sells slowly rare inputs

R8 Revolver | Monarch (Factory New) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.008148 instead of 0.007668
Craft 2081026 · The Graphic Design Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 27.28$ · invest 25.77$
sells slowly

XM1014 | Halftone Shift (Factory New) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007752 instead of 0.007668

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Train 2025 Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 6 outcomes

More

How to build