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The Falchion Collection + The Horizon Collection

Restricted → Classified

Average profit +1 746.23₴

Invest 2 229.82₴

Average return 3 976.05₴

ROI +78.3%

Chance of profit 30%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 5 415.44₴ · profit at most −1 439.39₴ (−26.6%) · chance of profit at most 30%

The estimate is made from the market at the time of the nightly check. Since then cheap listings with the needed float may have been bought or relisted. The «Check floats on Steam» button shows the current price.

The float window is very narrow: less than 30% of the wear range fits. The markup was not measured for such a case. The purchase will cost at least the stated number of times more. How much more is unknown, so the investment is shown as “at least” and the profit as “at most”.

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New) × 1 6% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 229.52 → 495.77 ₴

Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) × 4 6% of the wear range fits at least ×2.37 200.56 → 474.33 ₴

AWP | PAW (Factory New) × 5 6% of the wear range fits at least ×2.47 1 799.73 → 4 445.34 ₴

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

+ a third collection

How to build

6% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (by listings)

Price understated: Only 6% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×1

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0039

229.52 ₴

at 229.52

Steam

×4

Nova | Toy Soldier

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1630

200.56 ₴

at 50.14

Steam

×5

AWP | PAW

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0039

1 799.73 ₴

at 359.95

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 2 229.82 ₴ +1 746.23 (+78.3%)

9% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (by listings)

Price understated: Only 9% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×2

Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1711

102.37 ₴

at 51.18

Steam

×3

Nova | Toy Soldier

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1711

150.42 ₴

at 50.14

Steam

×5

AWP | PAW

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0064

1 799.73 ₴

at 359.95

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 2 052.52 ₴ +1 588.14 (+77.4%)

7% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (by listings)

Price understated: Only 7% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×3

Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1668

153.55 ₴

at 51.18

Steam

×3

Nova | Toy Soldier

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1668

150.42 ₴

at 50.14

Steam

×4

AWP | PAW

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0051

1 439.79 ₴

at 359.95

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 1 743.76 ₴ +1 561.53 (+89.5%)

6% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 6% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×1

P2000 | Handgun

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1637

39.80 ₴

at 39.80

Steam

×8

Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1637

409.47 ₴

at 51.18

Steam

×1

Nova | Toy Soldier

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1637

50.14 ₴

at 50.14

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 499.41 ₴ +793.60 (+158.9%)

What you get 6 outcomes

Profitable outcome 30%
Losing outcome 70%

at a loss

FAMAS | Eye of Athena

Factory New

float up to 0.048999

1 345.21 ₴ 30.00%

Steam

in profit

best

M4A1-S | Nightmare

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

12 570.05 ₴ 30.00%

Steam

at a loss

Sawed-Off | Devourer

Factory New

float up to 0.055999

959.17 ₴ 30.00%

Steam

at a loss

CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 236.55 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

worst

MP7 | Nemesis

Factory New

float up to 0.022399

866.68 ₴ 3.33%

Steam

at a loss

SG 553 | Cyrex

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 200.59 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Horizon Collection

Variant 2 only The Horizon Collection Variant 3 The Huntsman Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 4 The Operation Broken Fang Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 5 The Revolution Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 6 The Spectrum 2 Collection instead of The Falchion Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +958.67 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +1 538.64 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Horizon Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 6 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2080756 · The Graphic Design Collection + The Horizon Collection · profit 1 835.86₴ · invest 2 717.77₴
sells slowly rare inputs

CZ75-Auto | Slalom (Factory New) instead of MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New); Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163196 instead of 0.163068; AWP | PAW (Factory New): float at most 0.004016 instead of 0.003977
Craft 2081908 · The Horizon Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 1 748.20₴ · invest 2 263.86₴
sells slowly rare inputs

MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New) instead of MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New); Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163272 instead of 0.163068; AWP | PAW (Factory New): float at most 0.004039 instead of 0.003977
Craft 2082111 · The Horizon Collection + The Winter Offensive Collection · profit 1 717.68₴ · invest 2 367.05₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Nova | Rising Skull (Factory New) instead of MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New)
Craft 2082136 · The Horizon Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection · profit 1 716.25₴ · invest 2 498.64₴
sells slowly rare inputs

P90 | Blind Spot (Factory New) instead of MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New)
Craft 2082072 · The Horizon Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 1 687.88₴ · invest 2 312.16₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Factory New) instead of MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New); Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163609 instead of 0.163068; AWP | PAW (Factory New): float at most 0.004141 instead of 0.003977
Craft 2060280 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Horizon Collection · profit 1 668.33₴ · invest 2 364.82₴
sells slowly rare inputs

CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate (Factory New) instead of MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New); Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161675 instead of 0.163068; AWP | PAW (Factory New): float at most 0.003553 instead of 0.003977

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Horizon Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 6 outcomes

More

How to build