The Falchion Collection + The Safehouse Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Prices by float: this craft was not checked against the market at night (only the best are) or there were not enough listings. The numbers below are at average prices. «Check floats on Steam» will count by live listings right now.

Average profit +144.38₴

Invest 333.07₴

Average return 477.45₴

ROI +43.4%

Chance of profit 96%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 860.92₴ · profit at most −383.46₴ (−44.5%) · chance of profit at most 0%

The estimate is made from the market at the time of the nightly check. Since then cheap listings with the needed float may have been bought or relisted. The «Check floats on Steam» button shows the current price.

The float window is very narrow: less than 30% of the wear range fits. The markup was not measured for such a case. The purchase will cost at least the stated number of times more. How much more is unknown, so the investment is shown as “at least” and the profit as “at most”.

UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) × 1 8% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 32.05 → 69.23 ₴

Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New) × 9 8% of the wear range fits at least ×2.63 301.02 → 791.69 ₴

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

+ a third collection

How to build

8% of lots fit ≈ enough for 1 contract · medium (estimate)

Price understated: Only 8% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×1

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0056

32.05 ₴

at 32.05

Steam

×9

Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0056

301.02 ₴

at 33.45

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 333.07 ₴ +144.38 (+43.4%)

What you get 6 outcomes

Profitable outcome 96%
Losing outcome 4%

in profit

M4A1-S | Nitro

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

555.34 ₴ 90.00%

Steam

at a loss

FAMAS | Neural Net

Factory New

float up to 0.008108

279.46 ₴ 2.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

best

P2000 | Handgun

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

866.69 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

in profit

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo

Factory New

float up to 0.007026

404.77 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

float up to 0.006756

224.44 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

in profit

Negev | Loudmouth

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.146891

687.78 ₴ 2.00%

price without deals

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Safehouse Collection

Variant 2 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 3 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Safehouse Collection Variant 4 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The Safehouse Collection Variant 5 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Safehouse Collection Variant 6 The Glove Collection instead of The Safehouse Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +55.10 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +83.06 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Safehouse Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 8 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2051697 · The 2018 Inferno Collection + The Safehouse Collection · profit 150.62₴ · invest 336.72₴
pricier variants exist

Sawed-Off | Brake Light (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New): float at most 0.003860 instead of 0.005647
Craft 2078336 · The Gamma 2 Collection + The Safehouse Collection · profit 147.91₴ · invest 340.73₴
XM1014 | Slipstream (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New): float at most 0.005515 instead of 0.005647
Craft 2085845 · The Phoenix Collection + The Safehouse Collection · profit 146.42₴ · invest 329.32₴
rare inputs

UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New): float at most 0.004415 instead of 0.005647
Craft 2052440 · The 2018 Nuke Collection + The Safehouse Collection · profit 146.40₴ · invest 382.70₴
rare inputs

MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New): float at most 0.005515 instead of 0.005647
Craft 2088444 · The Safehouse Collection + The Shattered Web Collection · profit 140.94₴ · invest 396.17₴
rare inputs

M249 | Warbird (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New): float at most 0.004171 instead of 0.005647
Craft 2081894 · The Horizon Collection + The Safehouse Collection · profit 137.79₴ · invest 341.86₴
rare inputs

Dual Berettas | Shred (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New): float at most 0.005515 instead of 0.005647
Craft 2085343 · The Overpass 2024 Collection + The Safehouse Collection · profit 137.20₴ · invest 329.72₴
Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New): float at most 0.005515 instead of 0.005647
Craft 2088445 · The Safehouse Collection + The Snakebite Collection · profit 136.99₴ · invest 322.87₴
UMP-45 | Oscillator (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New): float at most 0.005515 instead of 0.005647

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Safehouse Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 6 outcomes

More

How to build