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The Falchion Collection + The Shadow Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit +4.01$

Invest 5.04$

Average return 9.05$

ROI +79.5%

Chance of profit 74%

With float: invest at least 12.57 $, profit at most −3.51 $

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0043

0.71 $

at 0.71

Steam

×1

SCAR-20 | Green Marine

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0749

0.44 $

at 0.44

Steam

×8

XM1014 | Scumbria

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0749

3.89 $

at 0.49

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 5.04 $ +4.01 (+79.5%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×7

Nova | Ranger

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0749

4.30 $

at 0.61

Steam

×1

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0043

0.71 $

at 0.71

Steam

×1

SCAR-20 | Green Marine

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0749

0.44 $

at 0.44

Steam

×1

XM1014 | Scumbria

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0749

0.49 $

at 0.49

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 5.93 $ +1.57 (+26.5%)

What you get 9 outcomes

Profitable outcome 74%
Losing outcome 26%

in profit

best

Galil AR | Stone Cold

Factory New

float up to 0.062999

22.19 $ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

7.60 $ 22.50%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

MP7 | Special Delivery

Factory New

float up to 0.043399

4.98 $ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

P250 | Wingshot

Factory New

float up to 0.062999

7.89 $ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

FAMAS | Neural Net

Factory New

float up to 0.041999

6.22 $ 2.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

P2000 | Handgun

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

19.28 $ 2.00%

Steam

in profit

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo

Factory New

float up to 0.036399

9.00 $ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

float up to 0.034999

4.99 $ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

float up to 0.175699

1.14 $ 2.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Shadow Collection

Variant 2 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 3 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 4 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 5 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 6 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Shadow Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +2.27 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +3.20 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Shadow Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 26 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2081897 · The Horizon Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 4.11$ · invest 5.24$
sells slowly rare inputs

Dual Berettas | Shred (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074772 instead of 0.074999; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074772 instead of 0.074999
Craft 2085347 · The Overpass 2024 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 4.10$ · invest 4.97$
rare inputs

Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074772 instead of 0.074999; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074772 instead of 0.074999
Craft 2088523 · The Shadow Collection + The Snakebite Collection · profit 4.09$ · invest 4.82$
rare inputs

UMP-45 | Oscillator (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074772 instead of 0.074999; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074772 instead of 0.074999
Craft 2067817 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 4.05$ · invest 4.90$
sells slowly rare inputs

M249 | Spectre (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074772 instead of 0.074999; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074772 instead of 0.074999
Craft 2061129 · The Ascent Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 4.03$ · invest 5.23$
rare inputs

P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074902 instead of 0.074999; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074902 instead of 0.074999
Craft 2087982 · The Revolver Case Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 3.99$ · invest 4.99$
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Outbreak (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074772 instead of 0.074999; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074772 instead of 0.074999
Craft 2062408 · The Boreal Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 3.98$ · invest 4.72$
rare inputs

MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074902 instead of 0.074999; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074902 instead of 0.074999
Craft 2068736 · The Chroma Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 3.98$ · invest 5.22$
sells slowly rare inputs

XM1014 | Quicksilver (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074772 instead of 0.074999; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074772 instead of 0.074999
Craft 2087022 · The Radiant Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 3.95$ · invest 5.11$
rare inputs

M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074772 instead of 0.074999; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074772 instead of 0.074999
Craft 2079097 · The Gamma Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 3.95$ · invest 4.88$
sells slowly rare inputs

SG 553 | Aerial (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074902 instead of 0.074999; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074902 instead of 0.074999
Craft 2073435 · The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 3.94$ · invest 4.57$
rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074867 instead of 0.074999; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074867 instead of 0.074999
Craft 2088590 · The Shadow Collection + The Spectrum Collection · profit 3.92$ · invest 4.85$
rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074772 instead of 0.074999; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074772 instead of 0.074999
Craft 2085848 · The Phoenix Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 3.92$ · invest 5.08$
sells slowly rare inputs

MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074590 instead of 0.074999; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074590 instead of 0.074999
Craft 2076518 · The Fracture Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 3.92$ · invest 4.66$
rare inputs

SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)
Craft 2083189 · The Kilowatt Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 3.91$ · invest 4.64$
rare inputs

Nova | Dark Sigil (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074998 instead of 0.074999; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074998 instead of 0.074999
Craft 2077481 · The Gallery Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 3.89$ · invest 5.01$
rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Trail Blazer (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075002 instead of 0.074999; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075002 instead of 0.074999
Craft 2057099 · The Achroma Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 3.88$ · invest 5.09$
rare inputs

P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074954 instead of 0.074999; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074954 instead of 0.074999
Craft 2081315 · The Harlequin Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 3.87$ · invest 5.18$
rare inputs

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)
Craft 2088625 · The Shadow Collection + The Sport & Field Collection · profit 3.87$ · invest 5.24$
sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

P250 | Small Game (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)
Craft 2088554 · The Shadow Collection + The Spectrum 2 Collection · profit 3.86$ · invest 4.76$
rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074772 instead of 0.074999; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074772 instead of 0.074999
Craft 2086277 · The Prisma 2 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 3.84$ · invest 4.88$
rare inputs

R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074902 instead of 0.074999; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074902 instead of 0.074999
Craft 2069801 · The Clutch Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 3.84$ · invest 4.72$
rare inputs

XM1014 | Oxide Blaze (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)
Craft 2063853 · The Breakout Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 3.82$ · invest 4.91$
sells slowly rare inputs

Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074772 instead of 0.074999; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074772 instead of 0.074999
Craft 2087303 · The Recoil Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 3.80$ · invest 4.73$
rare inputs

Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)
Craft 2064871 · The CS20 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 3.79$ · invest 5.12$
rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074924 instead of 0.074999; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074924 instead of 0.074999
Craft 2087658 · The Revolution Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 3.76$ · invest 4.74$
rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Fragments (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075061 instead of 0.074999; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075061 instead of 0.074999

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Shadow Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 9 outcomes

More

How to build