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The Falchion Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit +10.01$

Invest 14.74$

Average return 24.75$

ROI +67.9%

Chance of profit 45%

With float: invest at least 36.72 $, profit at most −11.96 $

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0048

0.71 $

at 0.71

Steam

×2

MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1659

1.76 $

at 0.88

Steam

×7

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0755

12.27 $

at 1.75

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 14.74 $ +10.01 (+67.9%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

Nova | Ranger

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0749

0.61 $

at 0.61

Steam

×1

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0043

0.71 $

at 0.71

Steam

×2

MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1642

1.76 $

at 0.88

Steam

×6

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0749

10.52 $

at 1.75

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 13.60 $ +8.85 (+65.0%)

What you get 9 outcomes

Profitable outcome 45%
Losing outcome 55%

at a loss

Glock-18 | Grinder

Factory New

float up to 0.040124

7.93 $ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

best

M4A4 | Griffin

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

85.89 $ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

M4A1-S | Basilisk

Factory New

float up to 0.059499

27.60 $ 22.50%

Steam

at a loss

Sawed-Off | Highwayman

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.087499

3.02 $ 22.50%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

FAMAS | Neural Net

Factory New

float up to 0.052499

6.22 $ 2.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

P2000 | Handgun

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.087499

1.90 $ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo

Factory New

float up to 0.045499

9.00 $ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

float up to 0.043749

4.99 $ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

float up to 0.184624

1.14 $ 2.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Variant 2 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection Variant 3 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection Variant 4 only The Vanguard Collection Variant 5 The Wildfire Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 6 The Glove Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +4.51 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +6.96 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Vanguard Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 46 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2085489 · The Overpass 2024 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 10.40$ · invest 14.67$
sells slowly rare inputs

Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161976 instead of 0.165948; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074165 instead of 0.075547
Craft 2061262 · The Ascent Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 10.33$ · invest 14.93$
sells slowly rare inputs

P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165863 instead of 0.165948; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075517 instead of 0.075547
Craft 2051774 · The 2018 Inferno Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 10.33$ · invest 14.82$
sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Sawed-Off | Brake Light (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162759 instead of 0.165948; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074438 instead of 0.075547
Craft 2062543 · The Boreal Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 10.28$ · invest 14.42$
sells slowly rare inputs

MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165863 instead of 0.165948; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075517 instead of 0.075547
Craft 2085491 · The Overpass 2024 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 10.26$ · invest 14.67$
sells slowly rare inputs

Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164182 instead of 0.165948; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074933 instead of 0.075547
Craft 2087183 · The Radiant Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 10.26$ · invest 14.81$
sells slowly rare inputs

M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165745 instead of 0.165948; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075476 instead of 0.075547
Craft 2066817 · The Chroma 2 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 10.24$ · invest 14.38$
sells slowly rare inputs

Negev | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164126 instead of 0.165948; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074913 instead of 0.075547
Craft 2071432 · The Danger Zone Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 10.22$ · invest 14.34$
sells slowly rare inputs

Tec-9 | Fubar (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164313 instead of 0.165948; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074978 instead of 0.075547
Craft 2073676 · The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 10.21$ · invest 14.27$
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165832 instead of 0.165948; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075506 instead of 0.075547
Craft 2077730 · The Gallery Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 10.20$ · invest 14.71$
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Trail Blazer (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162132 instead of 0.165948; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074219 instead of 0.075547
Craft 2057205 · The Achroma Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 10.18$ · invest 14.79$
sells slowly rare inputs

P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165909 instead of 0.165948; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075533 instead of 0.075547
Craft 2081434 · The Harlequin Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 10.18$ · invest 14.88$
sells slowly rare inputs

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)
Craft 2089248 · The Spectrum 2 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 10.16$ · invest 14.46$
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165745 instead of 0.165948; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075476 instead of 0.075547
Craft 2086019 · The Phoenix Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 10.15$ · invest 14.66$
sells slowly rare inputs

UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163765 instead of 0.165948; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074788 instead of 0.075547
Craft 2085492 · The Overpass 2024 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 10.15$ · invest 14.67$
sells slowly rare inputs

Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165745 instead of 0.165948; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075476 instead of 0.075547
Craft 2089394 · The Spectrum Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 10.14$ · invest 14.55$
sells slowly rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165745 instead of 0.165948; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075476 instead of 0.075547
Craft 2079266 · The Gamma Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 10.14$ · invest 14.54$
sells slowly rare inputs

P250 | Iron Clad (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163940 instead of 0.165948; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074848 instead of 0.075547
Craft 2082066 · The Horizon Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 10.14$ · invest 14.94$
sells slowly rare inputs

Dual Berettas | Shred (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165745 instead of 0.165948; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075476 instead of 0.075547
Craft 2089082 · The Snakebite Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 10.12$ · invest 14.51$
sells slowly rare inputs

UMP-45 | Oscillator (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161976 instead of 0.165948; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074165 instead of 0.075547
Craft 2083396 · The Kilowatt Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 10.11$ · invest 14.34$
sells slowly rare inputs

Nova | Dark Sigil (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165947 instead of 0.165948; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075546 instead of 0.075547
Craft 2076700 · The Fracture Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 10.11$ · invest 14.36$
sells slowly rare inputs

SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)
Craft 2069999 · The Clutch Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 10.10$ · invest 14.42$
sells slowly rare inputs

XM1014 | Oxide Blaze (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)
Craft 2089083 · The Snakebite Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 10.08$ · invest 14.51$
sells slowly rare inputs

UMP-45 | Oscillator (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165745 instead of 0.165948; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075476 instead of 0.075547
Craft 2077731 · The Gallery Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 10.06$ · invest 14.71$
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Trail Blazer (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165835 instead of 0.165948; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075508 instead of 0.075547
Craft 2068029 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 10.05$ · invest 14.60$
sells slowly rare inputs

M249 | Spectre (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165745 instead of 0.165948; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075476 instead of 0.075547
Craft 2087855 · The Revolution Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 10.04$ · invest 14.44$
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Fragments (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.166001 instead of 0.165948; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075565 instead of 0.075547
Craft 2087500 · The Recoil Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 10.03$ · invest 14.43$
sells slowly rare inputs

Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)
Craft 2063983 · The Breakout Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 10.01$ · invest 14.61$
sells slowly rare inputs

Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165745 instead of 0.165948; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075476 instead of 0.075547
Craft 2077732 · The Gallery Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 10.00$ · invest 14.71$
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Trail Blazer (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165950 instead of 0.165948; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075548 instead of 0.075547
Craft 2065040 · The CS20 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 9.98$ · invest 14.82$
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165882 instead of 0.165948; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075524 instead of 0.075547
Craft 2088151 · The Revolver Case Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 9.95$ · invest 14.69$
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Outbreak (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165745 instead of 0.165948; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075476 instead of 0.075547
Craft 2086425 · The Prisma 2 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 9.93$ · invest 14.58$
sells slowly rare inputs

R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165863 instead of 0.165948; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075517 instead of 0.075547
Craft 2083635 · The Lake Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 9.92$ · invest 14.49$
sells slowly rare inputs

SG 553 | Anodized Navy (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162759 instead of 0.165948; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074438 instead of 0.075547
Craft 2068866 · The Chroma Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 9.88$ · invest 14.92$
sells slowly rare inputs

XM1014 | Quicksilver (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165745 instead of 0.165948; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075476 instead of 0.075547
Craft 2089759 · The Vanguard Collection + The Winter Offensive Collection · profit 9.82$ · invest 15.64$
sells slowly rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161857 instead of 0.165948; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074124 instead of 0.075547
Craft 2082817 · The Italy Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 9.80$ · invest 14.69$
sells slowly rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165863 instead of 0.165948; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075517 instead of 0.075547
Craft 2089554 · The Sport & Field Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 9.79$ · invest 14.94$
sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

P250 | Small Game (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)
Craft 2075845 · The Fever Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 9.71$ · invest 14.77$
sells slowly rare inputs

P2000 | Sure Grip (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.166063 instead of 0.165948; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075587 instead of 0.075547
Craft 2082558 · The Huntsman Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 9.71$ · invest 15.52$
sells slowly rare inputs

SSG 08 | Slashed (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163100 instead of 0.165948; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074556 instead of 0.075547
Craft 2088485 · The Safehouse Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 9.70$ · invest 14.77$
sells slowly rare inputs

Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165571 instead of 0.165948; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075416 instead of 0.075547
Craft 2079911 · The Genesis Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 9.70$ · invest 14.82$
sells slowly rare inputs

MAG-7 | MAGnitude (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.166104 instead of 0.165948; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075601 instead of 0.075547
Craft 2078504 · The Gamma 2 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 9.69$ · invest 14.91$
sells slowly rare inputs

XM1014 | Slipstream (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165745 instead of 0.165948; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075476 instead of 0.075547
Craft 2072458 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 9.68$ · invest 14.85$
sells slowly rare inputs

UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.166104 instead of 0.165948; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075601 instead of 0.075547
Craft 2089735 · The Train Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 9.67$ · invest 14.73$
sells slowly rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165571 instead of 0.165948; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075416 instead of 0.075547
Craft 2088661 · The Shadow Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 9.67$ · invest 15.06$
sells slowly rare inputs

MAC-10 | Rangeen (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165745 instead of 0.165948; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075476 instead of 0.075547
Craft 2082559 · The Huntsman Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 9.64$ · invest 15.52$
sells slowly rare inputs

SSG 08 | Slashed (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164741 instead of 0.165948; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075127 instead of 0.075547

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Vanguard Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 9 outcomes

More

How to build