The Wildfire Collection + The Operation Hydra Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit +507.05$

Invest 2 390.38$

Average return 2 897.42$

ROI +21.2%

Chance of profit 20%

With float: invest at least 5 634.71 $, profit at most −2 737.29 $

The gain is understated: 7 outcomes have no price, that is 16.2% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat / Market.CSGO: without them the profit is −2 079.22 $

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

0% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×1

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0121

90.38 $

at 90.38

Steam

×4

Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0121

2 300.00 $

at 575.00

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 2 390.38 $ +507.05 (+21.2%)

The gain is understated: 7 outcomes have no price, that is 23.5% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −106 $

0% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×3

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0101

271.13 $

at 90.38

Steam

×2

Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0101

1 150.00 $

at 575.00

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 1 421.13 $ +171.66 (+12.1%)

The gain is understated: 7 outcomes have no price, that is 27.1% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −258 $

0% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×4

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0093

361.51 $

at 90.38

Steam

×1

Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0093

575.00 $

at 575.00

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 936.51 $ +3.96 (+0.4%)

What you get 37 outcomes

Profitable outcome 20%
Losing outcome 64%
Above the Steam cap 16%

Order

★ Hand Wraps | Spruce DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.33%

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Badlands

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 761.73 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Leather

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 000.00 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 153.51 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Eclipse

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

668.00 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.33%

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Boom!

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 610.00 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

3 408.41 $ 3.33%

sell on Market.CSGO

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Lunar Weave

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 040.00 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Convoy

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

741.94 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

2 195.00 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Diamondback

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 678.91 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

600.00 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

4 215.85 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

9 000.01 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Foundation

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 721.41 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

best

★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

29 300.04 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.33%

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Arid

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

2 900.00 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

21 500.02 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Charred

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 035.00 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Guerrilla

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

570.01 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Bronzed

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 544.58 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Snakebite

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

399.99 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

204.56 $ 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

268.62 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

335.79 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

1 455.05 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

1 106.95 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

211.97 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

376.19 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

200.22 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Bowie Knife

no wear

100.73 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Wildfire Collection + The Operation Hydra Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Operation Hydra Collection Variant 4 only The Operation Hydra Collection Variant 5 The Clutch Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 6 The Phoenix Collection instead of The Operation Hydra Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +473.63 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +486.31 $ historical median

3% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Operation Hydra Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 23 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2091017 · The Operation Hydra Collection + The Danger Zone Collection · profit 558.57$ · invest 2 356.08$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New): float at most 0.011261 instead of 0.012146
Craft 2091018 · The Danger Zone Collection + The Operation Hydra Collection · profit 558.57$ · invest 2 356.08$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New): float at most 0.011261 instead of 0.012146
Craft 2091719 · The Vanguard Collection + The Operation Hydra Collection · profit 552.54$ · invest 2 400.01$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New): float at most 0.011923 instead of 0.012146
Craft 2091720 · The Operation Hydra Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 552.54$ · invest 2 400.01$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New): float at most 0.011923 instead of 0.012146
Craft 2090545 · The Operation Hydra Collection + The Breakout Collection · profit 551.71$ · invest 2 527.91$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New): float at most 0.011261 instead of 0.012146
Craft 2090546 · The Breakout Collection + The Operation Hydra Collection · profit 551.71$ · invest 2 527.91$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New): float at most 0.011261 instead of 0.012146
Craft 2090625 · The Operation Hydra Collection + The CS20 Collection · profit 548.56$ · invest 2 361.89$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New): float at most 0.011261 instead of 0.012146
Craft 2090626 · The CS20 Collection + The Operation Hydra Collection · profit 548.56$ · invest 2 361.89$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New): float at most 0.011261 instead of 0.012146
Craft 2091697 · The Phoenix Collection + The Operation Hydra Collection · profit 542.86$ · invest 2 409.69$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AUG | Chameleon (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New): float at most 0.011261 instead of 0.012146
Craft 2091698 · The Operation Hydra Collection + The Phoenix Collection · profit 542.86$ · invest 2 409.69$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AUG | Chameleon (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New): float at most 0.011261 instead of 0.012146
Craft 2091723 · The Winter Offensive Collection + The Operation Hydra Collection · profit 541.07$ · invest 2 411.48$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Sawed-Off | The Kraken (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New): float at most 0.010394 instead of 0.012146
Craft 2091724 · The Operation Hydra Collection + The Winter Offensive Collection · profit 541.07$ · invest 2 411.48$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Sawed-Off | The Kraken (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New): float at most 0.010394 instead of 0.012146
Craft 2090459 · The Operation Hydra Collection + The Arms Deal 3 Collection · profit 535.40$ · invest 2 417.15$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New): float at most 0.012668 instead of 0.012146
Craft 2090460 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Operation Hydra Collection · profit 535.40$ · invest 2 417.15$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New): float at most 0.012668 instead of 0.012146
Craft 2091707 · The Revolver Case Collection + The Operation Hydra Collection · profit 533.45$ · invest 2 419.10$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

R8 Revolver | Fade (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New): float at most 0.010394 instead of 0.012146
Craft 2091708 · The Operation Hydra Collection + The Revolver Case Collection · profit 533.45$ · invest 2 419.10$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

R8 Revolver | Fade (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New): float at most 0.010394 instead of 0.012146
Craft 2091585 · The Operation Hydra Collection + The Huntsman Collection · profit 532.84$ · invest 2 380.12$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New): float at most 0.012446 instead of 0.012146
Craft 2091586 · The Huntsman Collection + The Operation Hydra Collection · profit 532.84$ · invest 2 380.12$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New): float at most 0.012446 instead of 0.012146
Craft 2091363 · The Operation Hydra Collection + The Fracture Collection · profit 530.43$ · invest 2 368.39$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New): float at most 0.012446 instead of 0.012146
Craft 2091364 · The Fracture Collection + The Operation Hydra Collection · profit 530.43$ · invest 2 368.39$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New): float at most 0.012446 instead of 0.012146
Craft 2091725 · The eSports 2013 Winter Collection + The Operation Hydra Collection · profit 512.54$ · invest 2 440.01$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New): float at most 0.009213 instead of 0.012146
Craft 2091726 · The Operation Hydra Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection · profit 512.54$ · invest 2 440.01$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New): float at most 0.009213 instead of 0.012146
Craft 2091722 · The Operation Hydra Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 507.05$ · invest 2 390.38$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Wildfire Collection + The Operation Hydra Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 37 outcomes

More

How to build