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The Falchion Collection

Restricted → Classified

Average profit +278.73₽

Invest 771.90₽

Average return 1 050.63₽

ROI +36.1%

Chance of profit 33%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 1 985.23₽ · profit at most −934.60₽ (−47.1%) · chance of profit at most 0%

The estimate is made from the market at the time of the nightly check. Since then cheap listings with the needed float may have been bought or relisted. The «Check floats on Steam» button shows the current price.

The float window is very narrow: less than 30% of the wear range fits. The markup was not measured for such a case. The purchase will cost at least the stated number of times more. How much more is unknown, so the investment is shown as “at least” and the profit as “at most”.

P2000 | Handgun (Field-Tested) × 9 5% of the wear range fits at least ×2.63 676.44 → 1 779.04 ₽

Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) × 1 5% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 95.46 → 206.19 ₽

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

5% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 5% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×9

P2000 | Handgun

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1618

676.44 ₽

at 75.16

Steam

×1

Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1618

95.46 ₽

at 95.46

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 771.90 ₽ +278.73 (+36.1%)

What you get 3 outcomes

Profitable outcome 33%
Losing outcome 67%

at a loss

CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

719.96 ₽ 33.33%

Steam

in profit

best

MP7 | Nemesis

Factory New

float up to 0.047999

2 185.59 ₽ 33.33%

Steam

at a loss

worst

SG 553 | Cyrex

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

719.11 ₽ 33.33%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one Restricted → Classified

Variant 2 Mil-Spec → Restricted Variant 3 Classified → Covert

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +104.85 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +223.25 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 3 outcomes

More

How to build