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The Dead Hand Collection + The Shadow Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +170.44₴

Invest 232.63₴

Average return 403.08₴

ROI +73.3%

Chance of profit 92%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 578.99₴ · profit at most −175.91₴ (−30.4%) · chance of profit at most 22%

The estimate is made from the market at the time of the nightly check. Since then cheap listings with the needed float may have been bought or relisted. The «Check floats on Steam» button shows the current price.

The float window is very narrow: less than 30% of the wear range fits. The markup was not measured for such a case. The purchase will cost at least the stated number of times more. How much more is unknown, so the investment is shown as “at least” and the profit as “at most”.

UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New) × 1 6% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 36.80 → 79.48 ₴

SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear) × 1 6% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 17.93 → 38.74 ₴

XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear) × 8 6% of the wear range fits at least ×2.59 177.90 → 460.77 ₴

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

+ a third collection

How to build

6% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 6% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×1

UMP-45 | Fragment

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0045

36.80 ₴

at 36.80

Steam

×1

SCAR-20 | Green Marine

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0751

17.93 ₴

at 17.93

Steam

×8

XM1014 | Scumbria

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0751

177.90 ₴

at 22.24

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 232.63 ₴ +170.44 (+73.3%)

6% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 6% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×1

Sawed-Off | Fusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0751

10.58 ₴

at 10.58

Steam

×1

UMP-45 | Fragment

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0045

36.80 ₴

at 36.80

Steam

×1

SCAR-20 | Green Marine

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0751

17.93 ₴

at 17.93

Steam

×7

XM1014 | Scumbria

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0751

155.67 ₴

at 22.24

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 220.98 ₴ +160.01 (+72.4%)

6% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 6% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×2

Sawed-Off | Fusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0751

21.16 ₴

at 10.58

Steam

×1

UMP-45 | Fragment

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0045

36.80 ₴

at 36.80

Steam

×1

SCAR-20 | Green Marine

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0751

17.93 ₴

at 17.93

Steam

×6

XM1014 | Scumbria

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0751

133.43 ₴

at 22.24

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 209.32 ₴ +149.57 (+71.5%)

6% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 6% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×3

Sawed-Off | Fusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0751

31.74 ₴

at 10.58

Steam

×1

UMP-45 | Fragment

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0045

36.80 ₴

at 36.80

Steam

×1

SCAR-20 | Green Marine

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0751

17.93 ₴

at 17.93

Steam

×5

XM1014 | Scumbria

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0751

111.19 ₴

at 22.24

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 197.66 ₴ +139.13 (+70.4%)

6% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 6% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×4

Sawed-Off | Fusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0751

42.32 ₴

at 10.58

Steam

×1

UMP-45 | Fragment

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0045

36.80 ₴

at 36.80

Steam

×1

SCAR-20 | Green Marine

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0751

17.93 ₴

at 17.93

Steam

×4

XM1014 | Scumbria

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0751

88.95 ₴

at 22.24

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 186.00 ₴ +128.69 (+69.2%)

What you get 9 outcomes

Profitable outcome 70%
Losing outcome 6%
About break-even 24%

in profit

best

Galil AR | Stone Cold

Factory New

float up to 0.062999

996.60 ₴ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

327.26 ₴ 22.50%

Steam

about break-even

MP7 | Special Delivery

Factory New

float up to 0.043399

276.73 ₴ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

P250 | Wingshot

Factory New

float up to 0.062999

355.22 ₴ 22.50%

Steam

about break-even

Desert Eagle | Firebreathing

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

265.00 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

Galil AR | Galigator

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

189.18 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

in profit

M4A1-S | Electrum

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

353.07 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

MP7 | Amberline

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

179.36 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

MP9 | Urban Sovereign

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

187.55 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Dead Hand Collection + The Shadow Collection

Variant 2 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Dead Hand Collection Variant 3 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 4 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 5 The Glove Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 6 The Prisma Collection instead of The Shadow Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +95.11 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +134.44 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Dead Hand Collection and The Shadow Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 25 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2118390 · The Chroma Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 188.80₴ · invest 235.37₴
sells slowly rare inputs

XM1014 | Quicksilver (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074772 instead of 0.075185; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074772 instead of 0.075185
Craft 2111041 · The Ascent Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 188.21₴ · invest 235.27₴
rare inputs

P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074902 instead of 0.075185; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074902 instead of 0.075185
Craft 2117479 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 187.93₴ · invest 221.30₴
rare inputs

G3SG1 | Orange Crash (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074802 instead of 0.075185; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074802 instead of 0.075185
Craft 2137458 · The Revolver Case Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 187.93₴ · invest 225.90₴
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Outbreak (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074772 instead of 0.075185; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074772 instead of 0.075185
Craft 2136457 · The Radiant Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 186.73₴ · invest 228.81₴
rare inputs

M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074772 instead of 0.075185; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074772 instead of 0.075185
Craft 2112345 · The Boreal Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 186.10₴ · invest 212.50₴
rare inputs

XM1014 | Copperflage (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074902 instead of 0.075185; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074902 instead of 0.075185
Craft 2124335 · The Falchion Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 186.10₴ · invest 227.89₴
rare inputs

UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074999 instead of 0.075185; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074999 instead of 0.075185
Craft 2128483 · The Gamma Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 185.40₴ · invest 220.14₴
sells slowly rare inputs

SG 553 | Aerial (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074902 instead of 0.075185; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074902 instead of 0.075185
Craft 2130768 · The Harlequin Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 182.69₴ · invest 234.02₴
rare inputs

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074999 instead of 0.075185; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074999 instead of 0.075185
Craft 2132596 · The Kilowatt Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 182.68₴ · invest 209.14₴
rare inputs

Nova | Dark Sigil (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074998 instead of 0.075185; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074998 instead of 0.075185
Craft 2126097 · The Fracture Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 182.27₴ · invest 210.78₴
rare inputs

SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074999 instead of 0.075185; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074999 instead of 0.075185
Craft 2123013 · The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 181.93₴ · invest 208.18₴
rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074867 instead of 0.075185; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074867 instead of 0.075185
Craft 2127000 · The Gallery Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 181.69₴ · invest 226.33₴
rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Trail Blazer (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075002 instead of 0.075185; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075002 instead of 0.075185
Craft 2135721 · The Prisma 2 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 181.56₴ · invest 218.58₴
rare inputs

R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074902 instead of 0.075185; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074902 instead of 0.075185
Craft 2106918 · The Achroma Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 180.86₴ · invest 229.97₴
rare inputs

P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074954 instead of 0.075185; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074954 instead of 0.075185
Craft 2135311 · The Phoenix Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 180.28₴ · invest 229.94₴
sells slowly rare inputs

MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074590 instead of 0.075185; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074590 instead of 0.075185
Craft 2138065 · The Shadow Collection + The Spectrum Collection · profit 180.25₴ · invest 219.10₴
rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074772 instead of 0.075185; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074772 instead of 0.075185
Craft 2114758 · The CS20 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 180.25₴ · invest 227.33₴
rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074924 instead of 0.075185; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074924 instead of 0.075185
Craft 2138028 · The Shadow Collection + The Spectrum 2 Collection · profit 179.91₴ · invest 214.32₴
rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074772 instead of 0.075185; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074772 instead of 0.075185
Craft 2113768 · The Breakout Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 179.78₴ · invest 220.30₴
sells slowly rare inputs

UMP-45 | Labyrinth (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074590 instead of 0.075185; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074590 instead of 0.075185
Craft 2136755 · The Recoil Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 178.46₴ · invest 213.10₴
rare inputs

Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074999 instead of 0.075185; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074999 instead of 0.075185
Craft 2119435 · The Clutch Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 178.37₴ · invest 213.45₴
rare inputs

SG 553 | Aloha (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074842 instead of 0.075185; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074842 instead of 0.075185
Craft 2138101 · The Shadow Collection + The Sport & Field Collection · profit 176.62₴ · invest 241.40₴
sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

P250 | Small Game (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074999 instead of 0.075185; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074999 instead of 0.075185
Craft 2137127 · The Revolution Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 176.19₴ · invest 213.93₴
rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Fragments (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075061 instead of 0.075185; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075061 instead of 0.075185
Craft 2129169 · The Genesis Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 171.14₴ · invest 231.40₴
rare inputs

MAG-7 | MAGnitude (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New)

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Dead Hand Collection + The Shadow Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 9 outcomes

More

How to build