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The Dead Hand Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +1 310.55₽

Invest 2 365.58₽

Average return 3 676.13₽

ROI +55.4%

Chance of profit 36%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 6 188.81₽ · profit at most −2 512.68₽ (−40.6%) · chance of profit at most 18%

The estimate is made from the market at the time of the nightly check. Since then cheap listings with the needed float may have been bought or relisted. The «Check floats on Steam» button shows the current price.

The float window is very narrow: less than 30% of the wear range fits. The markup was not measured for such a case. The purchase will cost at least the stated number of times more. How much more is unknown, so the investment is shown as “at least” and the profit as “at most”.

UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New) × 1 9% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 69.50 → 150.12 ₽

XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) × 9 9% of the wear range fits at least ×2.63 2 296.08 → 6 038.69 ₽

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −2 185 ₽

+ a third collection

How to build

9% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 9% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×1

UMP-45 | Fragment

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0060

69.50 ₽

at 69.50

Steam

×9

XM1014 | Red Python

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0800–0.0860

2 296.08 ₽

at 255.12

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 2 365.58 ₽ +1 310.55 (+55.4%)

profit on prices without sales at least −677 ₽

7% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 7% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×1

Sawed-Off | Fusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0757

19.98 ₽

at 19.98

Steam

×7

UMP-45 | Fragment

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0050

486.50 ₽

at 69.50

Steam

×2

XM1014 | Red Python

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0800–0.0850

510.24 ₽

at 255.12

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 1 016.72 ₽ +100.17 (+9.8%)

profit on prices without sales at least −885 ₽

7% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 7% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×1

Sawed-Off | Fusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0752

19.98 ₽

at 19.98

Steam

×6

UMP-45 | Fragment

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0045

417.00 ₽

at 69.50

Steam

×3

XM1014 | Red Python

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0800–0.0845

765.36 ₽

at 255.12

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 1 202.34 ₽ +280.15 (+23.3%)

What you get 10 outcomes

Profitable outcome 36%
Losing outcome 64%

at a loss

PP-Bizon | Blue Streak

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 459.35 ₽ 18.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

best

Desert Eagle | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

15 108.20 ₽ 18.00%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

Glock-18 | Steel Disruption

Factory New

float up to 0.002702

3 869.88 ₽ 18.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

MP7 | Ocean Foam

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

905.92 ₽ 18.00%

Steam

at a loss

P90 | Virus

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 896.64 ₽ 18.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

Desert Eagle | Firebreathing

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

500.50 ₽ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

Galil AR | Galigator

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

357.30 ₽ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

M4A1-S | Electrum

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

666.84 ₽ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

MP7 | Amberline

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

338.76 ₽ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

MP9 | Urban Sovereign

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

354.22 ₽ 2.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Dead Hand Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

Variant 2 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection Variant 3 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection Variant 4 The Glove Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection Variant 5 The Prisma Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection Variant 6 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +697.34 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +1 119.78 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Dead Hand Collection and The eSports 2014 Summer Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 30 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2138965 · The Spectrum Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 1 329.08₽ · invest 2 340.02₽
profit on prices without salesat least −2 171 ₽ rare inputs pricier variants exist

PP-Bizon | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085767 instead of 0.086025
Craft 2114983 · The CS20 Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 1 329.07₽ · invest 2 355.56₽
profit on prices without salesat least −2 178 ₽ rare inputs pricier variants exist

SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085864 instead of 0.086025
Craft 2138805 · The Spectrum 2 Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 1 328.44₽ · invest 2 330.99₽
profit on prices without salesat least −2 167 ₽ rare inputs pricier variants exist

SCAR-20 | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085767 instead of 0.086025
Craft 2113956 · The Breakout Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 1 328.18₽ · invest 2 342.28₽
profit on prices without salesat least −2 182 ₽ rare inputs pricier variants exist

UMP-45 | Labyrinth (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085647 instead of 0.086025
Craft 2137065 · The Recoil Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 1 325.70₽ · invest 2 328.68₽
profit on prices without salesat least −2 170 ₽ rare inputs pricier variants exist

Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085912 instead of 0.086025
Craft 2119704 · The Clutch Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 1 325.53₽ · invest 2 329.35₽
profit on prices without salesat least −2 170 ₽ rare inputs pricier variants exist

SG 553 | Aloha (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085813 instead of 0.086025
Craft 2139047 · The Sport & Field Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 1 322.22₽ · invest 2 382.14₽
profit on prices without salesat least −2 174 ₽ rare inputs pricier variants exist

P250 | Small Game (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085912 instead of 0.086025
Craft 2137426 · The Revolution Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 1 321.41₽ · invest 2 330.25₽
profit on prices without salesat least −2 174 ₽ rare inputs pricier variants exist

SCAR-20 | Fragments (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085950 instead of 0.086025
Craft 2139367 · The Winter Offensive Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 1 318.38₽ · invest 2 446.43₽
profit on prices without salesat least −2 226 ₽ rare inputs pricier variants exist

PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.083505 instead of 0.086025
Craft 2130057 · The Glove Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 1 313.66₽ · invest 2 646.09₽
profit on prices without salesat least −2 182 ₽ rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAG-7 | Sonar (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085713 instead of 0.086025
Craft 2129420 · The Genesis Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 1 311.88₽ · invest 2 363.25₽
profit on prices without salesat least −2 184 ₽ rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAG-7 | MAGnitude (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New)
Craft 2133030 · The Lake Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 1 308.18₽ · invest 2 335.02₽
profit on prices without salesat least −2 188 ₽ rare inputs pricier variants exist

SG 553 | Anodized Navy (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.083982 instead of 0.086025
Craft 2133939 · The Operation Broken Fang Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 1 306.45₽ · invest 2 523.00₽
profit on prices without salesat least −2 322 ₽ rare inputs pricier variants exist

P90 | Cocoa Rampage (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085851 instead of 0.086025
Craft 2111778 · The Bank Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 1 302.36₽ · invest 2 434.95₽
profit on prices without salesat least −2 193 ₽ rare inputs pricier variants exist

Desert Eagle | Meteorite (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085007 instead of 0.086025
Craft 2125520 · The Fever Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 1 302.11₽ · invest 2 354.66₽
profit on prices without salesat least −2 194 ₽ rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAG-7 | Resupply (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New)
Craft 2132236 · The Italy Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 1 299.08₽ · invest 2 350.75₽
profit on prices without salesat least −2 197 ₽ rare inputs pricier variants exist

Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085851 instead of 0.086025
Craft 2132048 · The Huntsman Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 1 295.39₽ · invest 2 420.85₽
profit on prices without salesat least −2 200 ₽ rare inputs pricier variants exist

SSG 08 | Slashed (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085102 instead of 0.086025
Craft 2109640 · The Arabesque Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 1 291.03₽ · invest 2 465.49₽
profit on prices without salesat least −2 205 ₽ rare inputs pricier variants exist

Sawed-Off | Lunar Wyrm (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New)
Craft 2139337 · The Wildfire Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 1 290.55₽ · invest 2 492.86₽
profit on prices without salesat least −2 205 ₽ rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085767 instead of 0.086025
Craft 2139219 · The Train Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 1 286.06₽ · invest 2 355.42₽
profit on prices without salesat least −2 210 ₽ rare inputs pricier variants exist

Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085647 instead of 0.086025
Craft 2139113 · The Spy Tech Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 1 275.59₽ · invest 2 496.08₽
profit on prices without salesat least −2 253 ₽ rare inputs pricier variants exist

R8 Revolver | Monarch (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New)
Craft 2134637 · The Operation Riptide Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 1 243.09₽ · invest 2 586.05₽
profit on prices without salesat least −2 261 ₽ rare inputs pricier variants exist

G3SG1 | Keeping Tabs (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085912 instead of 0.086025
Craft 2130500 · The Graphic Design Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 1 240.36₽ · invest 2 524.44₽
profit on prices without salesat least −2 293 ₽ rare inputs pricier variants exist

XM1014 | Halftone Shift (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085851 instead of 0.086025
Craft 2134231 · The Operation Hydra Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 1 229.62₽ · invest 2 781.28₽
profit on prices without salesat least −2 479 ₽ rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAG-7 | Hard Water (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085713 instead of 0.086025
Craft 2139399 · The eSports 2013 Winter Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 1 225.71₽ · invest 2 552.89₽
profit on prices without salesat least −2 270 ₽ rare inputs pricier variants exist

G3SG1 | Azure Zebra (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085405 instead of 0.086025
Craft 2108957 · The Anubis Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 1 217.03₽ · invest 2 688.08₽
profit on prices without salesat least −2 367 ₽ rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAG-7 | Copper Coated (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New)
Craft 2123646 · The Dust 2 Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 1 215.75₽ · invest 2 439.16₽
profit on prices without salesat least −2 280 ₽ rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A1-S | VariCamo (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085851 instead of 0.086025
Craft 2139204 · The Train 2025 Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 1 214.59₽ · invest 2 509.18₽
profit on prices without salesat least −2 281 ₽ rare inputs pricier variants exist

XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085935 instead of 0.086025
Craft 2106290 · The 2021 Vertigo Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 1 204.29₽ · invest 2 784.83₽
profit on prices without salesat least −2 399 ₽ rare inputs pricier variants exist

Souvenir Negev | Infrastructure (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085757 instead of 0.086025
Craft 2105113 · The 2021 Train Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 1 201.32₽ · invest 2 593.31₽
profit on prices without salesat least −2 329 ₽ rare inputs pricier variants exist

R8 Revolver | Blaze (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.083982 instead of 0.086025

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Dead Hand Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 10 outcomes

More

How to build