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The Falchion Collection + The Fracture Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit +2.19$

Invest 6.54$

Average return 8.72$

ROI +33.5%

Chance of profit 54%

With float: invest at least 16.57 $, profit at most −7.85 $

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −0 $

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

Nova | Ranger

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0746

0.64 $

at 0.64

Steam

×8

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0040

5.70 $

at 0.71

Steam

×1

P90 | Freight

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0746

0.19 $

at 0.19

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 6.54 $ +2.19 (+33.5%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −0 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×7

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0040

4.99 $

at 0.71

Steam

×2

P90 | Freight

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0746

0.38 $

at 0.19

Steam

×1

SG 553 | Ol' Rusty

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0040

0.33 $

at 0.33

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 5.70 $ +1.60 (+28.0%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −0 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×6

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0040

4.28 $

at 0.71

Steam

×2

P90 | Freight

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0746

0.38 $

at 0.19

Steam

×2

SG 553 | Ol' Rusty

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0040

0.67 $

at 0.33

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 5.32 $ +1.27 (+23.8%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −0 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×5

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0040

3.56 $

at 0.71

Steam

×2

P90 | Freight

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0746

0.38 $

at 0.19

Steam

×3

SG 553 | Ol' Rusty

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0040

1.00 $

at 0.33

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 4.94 $ +0.93 (+18.9%)

What you get 10 outcomes

Profitable outcome 54%
Losing outcome 46%

at a loss

FAMAS | Neural Net

Factory New

float up to 0.011764

6.15 $ 18.00%

Steam

in profit

best

P2000 | Handgun

Factory New

float up to 0.019607

18.63 $ 18.00%

Steam

in profit

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo

Factory New

float up to 0.010196

9.08 $ 18.00%

Steam

at a loss

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

float up to 0.009803

5.10 $ 18.00%

Steam

in profit

Negev | Loudmouth

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

15.30 $ 18.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

Galil AR | Connexion

Factory New

float up to 0.015686

2.21 $ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

MAC-10 | Allure

Factory New

float up to 0.019607

3.19 $ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

MAG-7 | Monster Call

Factory New

float up to 0.019607

2.87 $ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

MP5-SD | Kitbash

Factory New

float up to 0.015686

1.86 $ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

Tec-9 | Brother

Factory New

float up to 0.019607

3.18 $ 2.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Fracture Collection

Variant 2 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Fracture Collection Variant 3 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 4 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The Fracture Collection Variant 5 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 6 The Glove Collection instead of The Fracture Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +0.71 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +1.78 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Fracture Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 9 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2124487 · The Falchion Collection + The Sport & Field Collection · profit 2.43$ · invest 6.85$
sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Nova | Yorkshire (Minimal Wear) instead of P90 | Freight (Minimal Wear)
Craft 2124291 · The Falchion Collection + The Revolver Case Collection · profit 2.37$ · invest 6.81$
profit on prices without salesat least −0 $ rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Yorick (Minimal Wear) instead of P90 | Freight (Minimal Wear)
Craft 2121232 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit 2.36$ · invest 6.58$
profit on prices without salesat least −0 $ rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Fusion (Minimal Wear) instead of P90 | Freight (Minimal Wear)
Craft 2124393 · The Falchion Collection + The Snakebite Collection · profit 2.35$ · invest 6.70$
profit on prices without salesat least −0 $ rare inputs

SG 553 | Heavy Metal (Minimal Wear) instead of P90 | Freight (Minimal Wear)
Craft 2123860 · The Falchion Collection + The Genesis Collection · profit 2.35$ · invest 6.59$
profit on prices without salesat least −0 $ rare inputs

P250 | Bullfrog (Minimal Wear) instead of P90 | Freight (Minimal Wear)
Craft 2123767 · The Falchion Collection + The Gallery Collection · profit 2.26$ · invest 6.80$
profit on prices without salesat least −0 $ rare inputs

MP5-SD | Statics (Minimal Wear) instead of P90 | Freight (Minimal Wear)
Craft 2115859 · The Chroma 2 Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit 2.21$ · invest 6.67$
profit on prices without salesat least −0 $ rare inputs

Negev | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of P90 | Freight (Minimal Wear); Nova | Ranger (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077308 instead of 0.074673; UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.006395 instead of 0.004088
Craft 2123706 · The Falchion Collection + The Fever Collection · profit 2.20$ · invest 6.52$
profit on prices without salesat least −0 $ rare inputs

MAG-7 | Resupply (Minimal Wear) instead of P90 | Freight (Minimal Wear)
Craft 2123993 · The Falchion Collection + The Kilowatt Collection · profit 2.19$ · invest 6.50$
profit on prices without salesat least −0 $ rare inputs

SSG 08 | Dezastre (Minimal Wear) instead of P90 | Freight (Minimal Wear)

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Fracture Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 10 outcomes

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How to build