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The Falchion Collection + The Overpass 2024 Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit +108.91₴

Invest 304.35₴

Average return 413.26₴

ROI +35.8%

Chance of profit 61%

With float: invest at least 792.97 ₴, profit at most −379.71 ₴

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×9

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0037

288.44 ₴

at 32.05

Steam

×1

Glock-18 | Teal Graf

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0742

15.91 ₴

at 15.91

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 304.35 ₴ +108.91 (+35.8%)

What you get 8 outcomes

Profitable outcome 57%
Losing outcome 39%
About break-even 3%

at a loss

FAMAS | Neural Net

Factory New

float up to 0.011764

276.46 ₴ 18.00%

Steam

in profit

best

P2000 | Handgun

Factory New

float up to 0.019607

837.69 ₴ 18.00%

Steam

in profit

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo

Factory New

float up to 0.010196

407.96 ₴ 18.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

float up to 0.009803

229.17 ₴ 18.00%

Steam

in profit

Negev | Loudmouth

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

687.78 ₴ 18.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

AUG | Eye of Zapems

Factory New

float up to 0.016666

403.29 ₴ 3.33%

Steam

about break-even

Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels

Factory New

float up to 0.016078

356.35 ₴ 3.33%

Steam

at a loss

XM1014 | Monster Melt

Factory New

float up to 0.014705

326.92 ₴ 3.33%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Overpass 2024 Collection

Variant 2 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Overpass 2024 Collection Variant 3 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 4 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The Overpass 2024 Collection Variant 5 The Glove Collection instead of The Overpass 2024 Collection Variant 6 The Prisma Collection instead of The Falchion Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +39.28 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +89.54 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Overpass 2024 Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 7 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2123938 · The Falchion Collection + The Horizon Collection · profit 115.50₴ · invest 312.03₴
profit on prices without salesat least −1 ₴

AUG | Amber Slipstream (Minimal Wear) instead of Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Minimal Wear); UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.004606 instead of 0.003703
Craft 2110658 · The Ascent Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit 113.45₴ · invest 309.14₴
sells slowly

P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear) instead of Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Minimal Wear); UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.005379 instead of 0.003703
Craft 2117882 · The Chroma Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit 110.25₴ · invest 313.02₴
sells slowly rare inputs

XM1014 | Quicksilver (Minimal Wear) instead of Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Minimal Wear)
Craft 2124212 · The Falchion Collection + The Radiant Collection · profit 107.24₴ · invest 307.41₴
profit on prices without salesat least −0 ₴

M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Minimal Wear) instead of Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Minimal Wear)
Craft 2124511 · The Falchion Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 107.20₴ · invest 320.21₴
profit on prices without salesat least −0 ₴ rare inputs

XM1014 | Run Run Run (Minimal Wear) instead of Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Minimal Wear); UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.007111 instead of 0.003703
Craft 2123929 · The Falchion Collection + The Harlequin Collection · profit 107.08₴ · invest 308.74₴
profit on prices without salesat least −1 ₴

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear) instead of Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Minimal Wear); UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.006630 instead of 0.003703
Craft 2106566 · The Achroma Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit 105.48₴ · invest 304.46₴
profit on prices without salesat least −2 ₴

P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear) instead of Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Minimal Wear); UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.006047 instead of 0.003703

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Overpass 2024 Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 8 outcomes

More

How to build