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The Falchion Collection + The Revolver Case Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +91.61₴

Invest 220.28₴

Average return 311.89₴

ROI +41.6%

Chance of profit 51%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 564.26₴ · profit at most −252.37₴ (−44.7%) · chance of profit at most 2%

The estimate is made from the market at the time of the nightly check. Since then cheap listings with the needed float may have been bought or relisted. The «Check floats on Steam» button shows the current price.

The float window is very narrow: less than 30% of the wear range fits. The markup was not measured for such a case. The purchase will cost at least the stated number of times more. How much more is unknown, so the investment is shown as “at least” and the profit as “at most”.

UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) × 1 9% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 32.05 → 69.23 ₴

Sawed-Off | Yorick (Minimal Wear) × 9 9% of the wear range fits at least ×2.63 188.23 → 495.04 ₴

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

+ a third collection

How to build

9% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 9% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×1

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0059

32.05 ₴

at 32.05

Steam

×9

Sawed-Off | Yorick

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0768

188.23 ₴

at 20.91

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 220.28 ₴ +91.61 (+41.6%)

9% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 9% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×1

Nova | Ranger

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0768

28.93 ₴

at 28.93

Steam

×1

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0059

32.05 ₴

at 32.05

Steam

×8

Sawed-Off | Yorick

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0768

167.31 ₴

at 20.91

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 228.29 ₴ +83.76 (+36.7%)

9% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 9% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×2

Nova | Ranger

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0768

57.86 ₴

at 28.93

Steam

×1

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0059

32.05 ₴

at 32.05

Steam

×7

Sawed-Off | Yorick

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0768

146.40 ₴

at 20.91

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 236.31 ₴ +75.90 (+32.1%)

9% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 9% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×3

Nova | Ranger

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0768

86.79 ₴

at 28.93

Steam

×1

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0059

32.05 ₴

at 32.05

Steam

×6

Sawed-Off | Yorick

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0768

125.49 ₴

at 20.91

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 244.33 ₴ +68.04 (+27.9%)

9% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 9% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×4

Nova | Ranger

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0768

115.72 ₴

at 28.93

Steam

×1

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0059

32.05 ₴

at 32.05

Steam

×5

Sawed-Off | Yorick

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0768

104.57 ₴

at 20.91

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 252.34 ₴ +60.19 (+23.9%)

What you get 11 outcomes

Profitable outcome 51%
Losing outcome 49%

at a loss

PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

227.82 ₴ 15.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

Five-SeveN | Retrobution

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

564.60 ₴ 15.00%

Steam

in profit

Negev | Power Loader

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

423.58 ₴ 15.00%

Steam

at a loss

SG 553 | Tiger Moth

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

229.00 ₴ 15.00%

Steam

in profit

Tec-9 | Avalanche

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

480.54 ₴ 15.00%

Steam

at a loss

XM1014 | Teclu Burner

Factory New

float up to 0.045499

225.41 ₴ 15.00%

Steam

in profit

FAMAS | Neural Net

Factory New

float up to 0.041999

276.46 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

in profit

best

P2000 | Handgun

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

837.69 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

in profit

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo

Factory New

float up to 0.036399

407.96 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

float up to 0.034999

229.17 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

float up to 0.175699

50.31 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Revolver Case Collection

Variant 2 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Revolver Case Collection Variant 3 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 4 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The Revolver Case Collection Variant 5 The Glove Collection instead of The Revolver Case Collection Variant 6 The Prisma Collection instead of The Revolver Case Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +37.93 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +71.21 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Revolver Case Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 11 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2116418 · The Chroma 2 Collection + The Revolver Case Collection · profit 95.43₴ · invest 202.58₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Negev | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Sawed-Off | Yorick (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074590 instead of 0.076829
Craft 2137512 · The Revolver Case Collection + The Snakebite Collection · profit 95.42₴ · invest 210.07₴
sells slowly rare inputs

UMP-45 | Oscillator (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Sawed-Off | Yorick (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076511 instead of 0.076829
Craft 2118358 · The Chroma Collection + The Revolver Case Collection · profit 94.31₴ · invest 227.76₴
sells slowly rare inputs

XM1014 | Quicksilver (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Sawed-Off | Yorick (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076511 instead of 0.076829
Craft 2117447 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Revolver Case Collection · profit 93.44₴ · invest 213.69₴
sells slowly rare inputs

G3SG1 | Orange Crash (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Sawed-Off | Yorick (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076552 instead of 0.076829
Craft 2128452 · The Gamma Collection + The Revolver Case Collection · profit 92.16₴ · invest 211.29₴
sells slowly rare inputs

P250 | Iron Clad (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Sawed-Off | Yorick (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074193 instead of 0.076829
Craft 2112313 · The Boreal Collection + The Revolver Case Collection · profit 91.62₴ · invest 204.90₴
sells slowly rare inputs

XM1014 | Copperflage (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Sawed-Off | Yorick (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076693 instead of 0.076829
Craft 2132553 · The Kilowatt Collection + The Revolver Case Collection · profit 88.19₴ · invest 201.53₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Nova | Dark Sigil (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Sawed-Off | Yorick (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076827 instead of 0.076829
Craft 2126064 · The Fracture Collection + The Revolver Case Collection · profit 87.79₴ · invest 203.17₴
sells slowly rare inputs

SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)
Craft 2122963 · The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Revolver Case Collection · profit 87.44₴ · invest 200.58₴
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Sawed-Off | Yorick (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076644 instead of 0.076829
Craft 2120804 · The Danger Zone Collection + The Revolver Case Collection · profit 87.29₴ · invest 206.54₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Tec-9 | Fubar (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Sawed-Off | Yorick (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074729 instead of 0.076829
Craft 2135690 · The Prisma 2 Collection + The Revolver Case Collection · profit 87.07₴ · invest 210.97₴
sells slowly rare inputs

R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Sawed-Off | Yorick (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076693 instead of 0.076829

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Revolver Case Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 11 outcomes

More

How to build