The Falchion Collection + The Shadow Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Prices by float: this craft was not checked against the market at night (only the best are) or there were not enough listings. The numbers below are at average prices. «Check floats on Steam» will count by live listings right now.

Average profit +351.49₽

Invest 430.40₽

Average return 781.89₽

ROI +81.7%

Chance of profit 96%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 1 074.14₽ · profit at most −292.26₽ (−27.2%) · chance of profit at most 24%

The estimate is made from the market at the time of the nightly check. Since then cheap listings with the needed float may have been bought or relisted. The «Check floats on Steam» button shows the current price.

The float window is very narrow: less than 30% of the wear range fits. The markup was not measured for such a case. The purchase will cost at least the stated number of times more. How much more is unknown, so the investment is shown as “at least” and the profit as “at most”.

UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) × 1 6% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 60.53 → 130.74 ₽

SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear) × 1 6% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 33.87 → 73.16 ₽

XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear) × 8 6% of the wear range fits at least ×2.59 336.00 → 870.24 ₽

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

+ a third collection

How to build

6% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 6% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×1

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0043

60.53 ₽

at 60.53

Steam

×1

SCAR-20 | Green Marine

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0749

33.87 ₽

at 33.87

Steam

×8

XM1014 | Scumbria

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0749

336.00 ₽

at 42.00

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 430.40 ₽ +351.49 (+81.7%)

7% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 7% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×4

Nova | Ranger

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0753

218.56 ₽

at 54.64

Steam

×4

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0046

242.12 ₽

at 60.53

Steam

×1

SCAR-20 | Green Marine

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1653

21.47 ₽

at 21.47

Steam

×1

XM1014 | Scumbria

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1653

25.13 ₽

at 25.13

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 507.28 ₽ +126.73 (+25.0%)

6% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 6% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×4

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0044

242.12 ₽

at 60.53

Steam

×1

SCAR-20 | Green Marine

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1645

21.47 ₽

at 21.47

Steam

×5

SCAR-20 | Green Marine

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0750

169.35 ₽

at 33.87

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 432.94 ₽ +285.57 (+66.0%)

What you get 9 outcomes

Profitable outcome 96%
Losing outcome 4%

in profit

best

Galil AR | Stone Cold

Factory New

float up to 0.062999

1 882.24 ₽ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

618.08 ₽ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

MP7 | Special Delivery

Factory New

float up to 0.043399

522.65 ₽ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

P250 | Wingshot

Factory New

float up to 0.062999

670.89 ₽ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

FAMAS | Neural Net

Factory New

float up to 0.041999

522.14 ₽ 2.00%

Steam

in profit

P2000 | Handgun

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 582.12 ₽ 2.00%

Steam

in profit

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo

Factory New

float up to 0.036399

770.51 ₽ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

float up to 0.034999

432.82 ₽ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

float up to 0.175699

95.02 ₽ 2.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Shadow Collection

Variant 2 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 3 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 4 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 5 The Glove Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 6 The Prisma Collection instead of The Shadow Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +202.56 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +280.28 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Shadow Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 25 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2118390 · The Chroma Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 356.57₽ · invest 444.53₽
sells slowly rare inputs

XM1014 | Quicksilver (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074772 instead of 0.074999; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074772 instead of 0.074999
Craft 2111041 · The Ascent Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 355.48₽ · invest 444.34₽
rare inputs

P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074902 instead of 0.074999; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074902 instead of 0.074999
Craft 2117479 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 354.94₽ · invest 417.96₽
rare inputs

G3SG1 | Orange Crash (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074802 instead of 0.074999; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074802 instead of 0.074999
Craft 2137458 · The Revolver Case Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 354.94₽ · invest 426.65₽
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Outbreak (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074772 instead of 0.074999; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074772 instead of 0.074999
Craft 2136457 · The Radiant Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 352.67₽ · invest 432.15₽
rare inputs

M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074772 instead of 0.074999; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074772 instead of 0.074999
Craft 2112345 · The Boreal Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 351.49₽ · invest 401.35₽
rare inputs

XM1014 | Copperflage (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074902 instead of 0.074999; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074902 instead of 0.074999
Craft 2128483 · The Gamma Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 350.16₽ · invest 415.77₽
sells slowly rare inputs

SG 553 | Aerial (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074902 instead of 0.074999; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074902 instead of 0.074999
Craft 2130768 · The Harlequin Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 345.03₽ · invest 441.99₽
rare inputs

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)
Craft 2132596 · The Kilowatt Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 345.01₽ · invest 395.00₽
rare inputs

Nova | Dark Sigil (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074998 instead of 0.074999; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074998 instead of 0.074999
Craft 2126097 · The Fracture Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 344.25₽ · invest 398.10₽
rare inputs

SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)
Craft 2123013 · The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 343.60₽ · invest 393.19₽
rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074867 instead of 0.074999; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074867 instead of 0.074999
Craft 2127000 · The Gallery Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 343.15₽ · invest 427.46₽
rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Trail Blazer (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075002 instead of 0.074999; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075002 instead of 0.074999
Craft 2135721 · The Prisma 2 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 342.91₽ · invest 412.82₽
rare inputs

R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074902 instead of 0.074999; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074902 instead of 0.074999
Craft 2106918 · The Achroma Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 341.59₽ · invest 434.34₽
rare inputs

P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074954 instead of 0.074999; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074954 instead of 0.074999
Craft 2135311 · The Phoenix Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 340.49₽ · invest 434.29₽
sells slowly rare inputs

MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074590 instead of 0.074999; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074590 instead of 0.074999
Craft 2138065 · The Shadow Collection + The Spectrum Collection · profit 340.44₽ · invest 413.81₽
rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074772 instead of 0.074999; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074772 instead of 0.074999
Craft 2114758 · The CS20 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 340.43₽ · invest 429.35₽
rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074924 instead of 0.074999; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074924 instead of 0.074999
Craft 2138028 · The Shadow Collection + The Spectrum 2 Collection · profit 339.80₽ · invest 404.78₽
rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074772 instead of 0.074999; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074772 instead of 0.074999
Craft 2113768 · The Breakout Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 339.54₽ · invest 416.07₽
sells slowly rare inputs

UMP-45 | Labyrinth (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074590 instead of 0.074999; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074590 instead of 0.074999
Craft 2136755 · The Recoil Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 337.06₽ · invest 402.47₽
rare inputs

Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)
Craft 2119435 · The Clutch Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 336.89₽ · invest 403.14₽
rare inputs

SG 553 | Aloha (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074842 instead of 0.074999; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074842 instead of 0.074999
Craft 2138101 · The Shadow Collection + The Sport & Field Collection · profit 333.57₽ · invest 455.93₽
sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

P250 | Small Game (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)
Craft 2137127 · The Revolution Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 332.77₽ · invest 404.04₽
rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Fragments (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075061 instead of 0.074999; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075061 instead of 0.074999
Craft 2129169 · The Genesis Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 323.24₽ · invest 437.04₽
rare inputs

MAG-7 | MAGnitude (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075185 instead of 0.074999; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075185 instead of 0.074999
Craft 2121909 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 321.91₽ · invest 439.37₽
rare inputs

UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075185 instead of 0.074999; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075185 instead of 0.074999

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Shadow Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 9 outcomes

More

How to build