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The Falchion Collection + The Train 2025 Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit +1 441.71₴

Invest 1 047.53₴

Average return 2 489.24₴

ROI +137.6%

Chance of profit 30%

With float: invest at least 2 739.93 ₴, profit at most −250.69 ₴

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

≈2% of lots fit: the price is understated

×1

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0078

32.05 ₴

at 32.05

Steam

×9

XM1014 | Run Run Run

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0078

1 015.48 ₴

at 112.83

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 1 047.53 ₴ +1 441.71 (+137.6%)

What you get 8 outcomes

Profitable outcome 30%
Losing outcome 70%

at a loss

MAC-10 | Derailment

Factory New

float up to 0.007446

370.63 ₴ 30.00%

Steam

at a loss

Zeus x27 | Charged Up

Factory New

float up to 0.010638

529.48 ₴ 30.00%

Steam

in profit

best

Tec-9 | Whiteout

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

8 479.37 ₴ 30.00%

Steam

at a loss

FAMAS | Neural Net

Factory New

float up to 0.006382

276.46 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

P2000 | Handgun

Factory New

float up to 0.010638

837.69 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo

Factory New

float up to 0.005531

407.96 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

float up to 0.005319

229.17 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

Negev | Loudmouth

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.145425

687.78 ₴ 2.00%

price without deals

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Train 2025 Collection

Variant 2 only The Train 2025 Collection Variant 3 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 4 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 5 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 6 The Winter Offensive Collection instead of The Falchion Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +925.75 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +1 203.18 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Train 2025 Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 37 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2127952 · The Gamma 2 Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 523.32₴ · invest 1 054.61₴
sells slowly rare inputs

XM1014 | Slipstream (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2101934 · The 2018 Inferno Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 449.47₴ · invest 1 047.24₴
sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Sawed-Off | Brake Light (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.004332 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2137946 · The Safehouse Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 447.81₴ · invest 1 047.30₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007308 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2135459 · The Phoenix Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 442.37₴ · invest 1 043.78₴
sells slowly rare inputs

UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.005684 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2134926 · The Overpass 2024 Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 434.92₴ · invest 1 043.39₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2116598 · The Chroma 2 Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 434.44₴ · invest 1 029.83₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Negev | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.005541 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2138538 · The Snakebite Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 434.44₴ · invest 1 037.32₴
sells slowly rare inputs

UMP-45 | Oscillator (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2118519 · The Chroma Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 433.32₴ · invest 1 055.01₴
sells slowly rare inputs

XM1014 | Quicksilver (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2111150 · The Ascent Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 432.74₴ · invest 1 054.91₴
sells slowly rare inputs

P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007752 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2117643 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 432.46₴ · invest 1 040.94₴
sells slowly rare inputs

G3SG1 | Orange Crash (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007610 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2137611 · The Revolver Case Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 432.45₴ · invest 1 045.54₴
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Outbreak (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2136596 · The Radiant Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 431.25₴ · invest 1 048.45₴
sells slowly rare inputs

M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2128634 · The Gamma Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 431.17₴ · invest 1 038.54₴
sells slowly rare inputs

P250 | Iron Clad (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.005870 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2112451 · The Boreal Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 430.63₴ · invest 1 032.15₴
sells slowly rare inputs

XM1014 | Copperflage (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007752 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2130872 · The Harlequin Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 427.21₴ · invest 1 053.66₴
sells slowly rare inputs

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)
Craft 2132781 · The Kilowatt Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 427.20₴ · invest 1 028.78₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Nova | Dark Sigil (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007887 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2126270 · The Fracture Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 426.80₴ · invest 1 030.42₴
sells slowly rare inputs

SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)
Craft 2123214 · The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 426.45₴ · invest 1 027.82₴
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007703 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2121040 · The Danger Zone Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 426.30₴ · invest 1 033.79₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Tec-9 | Fubar (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.005968 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2127197 · The Gallery Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 426.21₴ · invest 1 045.97₴
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Trail Blazer (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007892 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2135855 · The Prisma 2 Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 426.09₴ · invest 1 038.22₴
sells slowly rare inputs

R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007752 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2107006 · The Achroma Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 425.38₴ · invest 1 049.61₴
sells slowly rare inputs

P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007825 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2138850 · The Spectrum Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 424.78₴ · invest 1 038.74₴
sells slowly rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2114903 · The CS20 Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 424.77₴ · invest 1 046.97₴
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007783 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2138706 · The Spectrum 2 Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 424.44₴ · invest 1 033.96₴
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2113884 · The Breakout Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 424.30₴ · invest 1 039.94₴
sells slowly rare inputs

UMP-45 | Labyrinth (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007308 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2136953 · The Recoil Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 422.99₴ · invest 1 032.74₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)
Craft 2119606 · The Clutch Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 422.90₴ · invest 1 033.09₴
sells slowly rare inputs

SG 553 | Aloha (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007668 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2137310 · The Revolution Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 420.72₴ · invest 1 033.57₴
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Fragments (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007976 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2129320 · The Genesis Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 415.67₴ · invest 1 051.04₴
sells slowly rare inputs

MAG-7 | MAGnitude (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.008148 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2122084 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 414.97₴ · invest 1 052.28₴
sells slowly rare inputs

UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.008148 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2133021 · The Lake Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 413.71₴ · invest 1 036.10₴
sells slowly rare inputs

SG 553 | Anodized Navy (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.004332 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2125415 · The Fever Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 410.49₴ · invest 1 046.49₴
sells slowly rare inputs

MAG-7 | Resupply (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.008148 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2132221 · The Italy Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 408.89₴ · invest 1 044.42₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007752 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2139157 · The Train 2025 Collection + The Train Collection · profit 1 402.00₴ · invest 1 046.90₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007308 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2134567 · The Operation Riptide Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 379.25₴ · invest 1 169.01₴
sells slowly rare inputs

G3SG1 | Keeping Tabs (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)
Craft 2130461 · The Graphic Design Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 377.80₴ · invest 1 136.39₴
sells slowly rare inputs

XM1014 | Halftone Shift (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007752 instead of 0.007889

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Train 2025 Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 8 outcomes

More

How to build