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The Falchion Collection + The Train 2025 Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +1 082.24₸

Invest 3 232.60₸

Average return 4 314.84₸

ROI +33.5%

Chance of profit 64%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 8 351.03₸ · profit at most −4 036.20₸ (−48.3%) · chance of profit at most 0%

The estimate is made from the market at the time of the nightly check. Since then cheap listings with the needed float may have been bought or relisted. The «Check floats on Steam» button shows the current price.

The float window is very narrow: less than 30% of the wear range fits. The markup was not measured for such a case. The purchase will cost at least the stated number of times more. How much more is unknown, so the investment is shown as “at least” and the profit as “at most”.

UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) × 9 10% of the wear range fits at least ×2.63 2 911.89 → 7 658.27 ₸

XM1014 | Run Run Run (Minimal Wear) × 1 10% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 320.71 → 692.73 ₸

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −5 ₸

+ a third collection

How to build

10% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 10% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×9

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0071

2 911.89 ₸

at 323.54

Steam

×1

XM1014 | Run Run Run

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0781

320.71 ₸

at 320.71

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 3 232.60 ₸ +1 082.24 (+33.5%)

profit on prices without sales at least −613 ₸

6% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 6% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×7

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0041

2 264.80 ₸

at 323.54

Steam

×2

UMP-45 | Late Night Transit

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0747

743.51 ₸

at 371.76

Steam

×1

XM1014 | Run Run Run

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0041

1 139.06 ₸

at 1 139.06

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 4 147.38 ₸ +232.57 (+5.6%)

What you get 8 outcomes

Profitable outcome 61%
Losing outcome 36%
About break-even 3%

at a loss

FAMAS | Neural Net

Factory New

float up to 0.011764

2 790.93 ₸ 18.00%

Steam

in profit

best

P2000 | Handgun

Factory New

float up to 0.019607

8 456.71 ₸ 18.00%

Steam

in profit

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo

Factory New

float up to 0.010196

4 118.51 ₸ 18.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

float up to 0.009803

2 313.50 ₸ 18.00%

Steam

in profit

Negev | Loudmouth

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

6 943.28 ₸ 18.00%

price without deals

Steam

about break-even

MAC-10 | Derailment

Factory New

float up to 0.013725

3 741.62 ₸ 3.33%

Steam

in profit

Zeus x27 | Charged Up

Factory New

float up to 0.019607

5 345.23 ₸ 3.33%

Steam

in profit

Tec-9 | Whiteout

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.078431

6 810.45 ₸ 3.33%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Train 2025 Collection

Variant 2 only The Train 2025 Collection Variant 3 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 4 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 5 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 6 The Winter Offensive Collection instead of The Falchion Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +357.59 ₸ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +871.64 ₸ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Train 2025 Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 7 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2123938 · The Falchion Collection + The Horizon Collection · profit 1 165.97₸ · invest 3 150.02₸
profit on prices without salesat least −14 ₸

AUG | Amber Slipstream (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Run Run Run (Minimal Wear); UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.004606 instead of 0.007111
Craft 2110658 · The Ascent Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit 1 145.27₸ · invest 3 120.89₸
sells slowly

P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Run Run Run (Minimal Wear); UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.005379 instead of 0.007111
Craft 2117882 · The Chroma Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit 1 112.96₸ · invest 3 160.07₸
sells slowly rare inputs

XM1014 | Quicksilver (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Run Run Run (Minimal Wear); UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.003703 instead of 0.007111
Craft 2124105 · The Falchion Collection + The Overpass 2024 Collection · profit 1 099.46₸ · invest 3 072.51₸
sells slowly

Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Run Run Run (Minimal Wear); UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.003703 instead of 0.007111
Craft 2124212 · The Falchion Collection + The Radiant Collection · profit 1 082.59₸ · invest 3 103.41₸
profit on prices without salesat least −4 ₸

M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Run Run Run (Minimal Wear); UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.003703 instead of 0.007111
Craft 2123929 · The Falchion Collection + The Harlequin Collection · profit 1 081.01₸ · invest 3 116.77₸
profit on prices without salesat least −6 ₸

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Run Run Run (Minimal Wear); UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.006630 instead of 0.007111
Craft 2106566 · The Achroma Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit 1 064.83₸ · invest 3 073.64₸
profit on prices without salesat least −22 ₸

P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Run Run Run (Minimal Wear); UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.006047 instead of 0.007111

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Train 2025 Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 3 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 8 outcomes

More

How to build