Crafts · The Falchion Collection
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The Falchion Collection + The Vanguard Collection

StatTrak™ Classified → Covert About the craft Craft 2124548 · ways to build: 5 StatTrak™ craft. Inputs and outcome are StatTrak: a normal item won't do here, and the outcome sells at the StatTrak price, which differs from the price of the normal item. The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profit Average profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment. +21 955.34₽
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the needed wear, regardless of float. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase. 40 596.38₽
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances. 62 551.72₽
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment. +54.1%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input. 45%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 99 330.61₽ · profit at most −36 778.89₽ (−37.0%) · chance of profit at most 45%

The estimate is made from the market at the time of the nightly check. Since then cheap listings with the needed float may have been bought or relisted. The «Check floats on Steam» button shows the current price.

The float window is very narrow: less than 30% of the wear range fits. The markup was not measured for such a case. The purchase will cost at least the stated number of times more. How much more is unknown, so the investment is shown as “at least” and the profit as “at most”.
StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New) × 1 11% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 2 574.65 → 5 561.24 ₽
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Minimal Wear) × 3 11% of the wear range fits at least ×2.26 6 660.69 → 15 053.16 ₽
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Factory New) × 6 11% of the wear range fits at least ×2.51 31 361.04 → 78 716.21 ₽

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Check:
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To calculator I have items
Sell on a marketplace: CSFloat, outcomes: 1. They have no price on Steam (above its price cap or nobody listed them); they are counted at the marketplace's cheapest listing minus its fee, ignoring pattern and float. They account for 45.0% of the probability. Money from the marketplace can be withdrawn, while the investment comes from the Steam balance. Without them (as zero, like before) the profit is −30 424.76 ₽.
+ a third collection

How to build Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

11% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 11% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×1
StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis
Factory New
buy 0.0000–0.0077
2 574.65 ₽
at 2 574.65
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.007781f′ (normalized) 0.024318wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 15 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0, new listings per day: fewer than one · little data, days: 1
×3
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac
Minimal Wear
buy 0.0700–0.0788
6 660.69 ₽
at 2 220.23
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.078893f′ (normalized) 0.078893wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 8 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0, new listings per day: fewer than one
×6
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac
Factory New
buy 0.0000–0.0077
31 361.04 ₽
at 5 226.84
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.007781f′ (normalized) 0.007781wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 2 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0, new listings per day: fewer than one
Set · 10 pcs 40 596.38 ₽ +21 955.34 (+54.1%) Average float of the set average normalized 0.030769131 outcomes come out up to 0.069999, 0.018461, 0.030769, 0.030769 «No higher than» is a guarantee. Take every item with the float at the upper limit and you get exactly the result shown.

What you get 4 outcomes

  • Profitable outcome 45%
  • Losing outcome 55%
in profit
best
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel
Factory New
float up to 0.069999
118 775.75 ₽ 45.00%
sell on CSFloat
Steam StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)net 116 400.23 ₽The Vanguard Collection no price on Steam, listing on CSFloat from 118 775.75 ₽ listings 9 · you get 116 400.23 ₽ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 110 916.69 ₽ (you get 96 449.29 ₽)) · buy orders: 429 Market.CSGO: 1 listings, too few, no price on CSFloat: from 118 775.75 ₽ listings: 9 on Lis-Skins: from 153 775.11 ₽ listings: 7
at a loss
StatTrak™ P2000 | Fire Elemental
Factory New
float up to 0.018461
20 191.77 ₽ 45.00%
price without deals
Steam StatTrak™ P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New)net 17 558.06 ₽The Vanguard Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
no buy orders sell on Market.CSGO: 16 832.56 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 18 456.76 · lots 5 on CSFloat: from 14 508.64 ₽ listings: 16 on Lis-Skins: from 14 554.49 ₽ listings: 7
at a loss
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge
Factory New
float up to 0.030769
32 782.56 ₽ 5.00%
Steam StatTrak™ AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New)net 28 506.57 ₽ sells 1 a week sell now to a buy order: 29 185.84 ₽ (you get 25 378.99 ₽)) · buy orders: 647 sell on Market.CSGO: 23 255.99 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 25 499.99 · lots 12 on CSFloat: from 22 313.54 ₽ listings: 46 on CS.Money: ~ 24 877.53 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 23 672.80 ₽ listings: 32
at a loss
worst
StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast
Factory New
float up to 0.030769
19 438.78 ₽ 5.00%
Steam StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)net 16 903.29 ₽ sells about 4 a week (data for 6 days of 7)) sell now to a buy order: 18 894.62 ₽ (you get 16 430.10 ₽)) · buy orders: 921 sell on Market.CSGO: 19 397.38 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 21 269.06 · lots 9 on CSFloat: from 17 435.16 ₽ listings: 24 on CS.Money: ~ 18 162.76 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 18 574.52 ₽ listings: 24

Craft variants Craft variants One of this craft's two collections paired with another collection, same rarity. Click a variant to open its page with all the numbers. The variants may include a craft at a small loss: no more than 15% of the investment, if its most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee and that outcome's price is confirmed by sales.

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Vanguard Collection
Variant 2 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection Variant 3 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 4 only The Vanguard Collection Variant 5 The Wildfire Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 6 The Winter Offensive Collection instead of The Falchion Collection
Chains Pretty floats Interesting Cases Favorites From inventory Proven in practice How crafts work