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The Falchion Collection + The Wildfire Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +119.37₴

Invest 374.43₴

Average return 493.79₴

ROI +31.9%

Chance of profit 44%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 924.91₴ · profit at most −431.12₴ (−46.6%) · chance of profit at most 8%

The estimate is made from the market at the time of the nightly check. Since then cheap listings with the needed float may have been bought or relisted. The «Check floats on Steam» button shows the current price.

The float window is very narrow: less than 30% of the wear range fits. The markup was not measured for such a case. The purchase will cost at least the stated number of times more. How much more is unknown, so the investment is shown as “at least” and the profit as “at most”.

UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) × 8 6% of the wear range fits at least ×2.59 256.39 → 664.06 ₴

PP-Bizon | Photic Zone (Minimal Wear) × 2 6% of the wear range fits at least ×2.21 118.03 → 260.85 ₴

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

+ a third collection

How to build

6% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 6% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×8

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0040

256.39 ₴

at 32.05

Steam

×2

PP-Bizon | Photic Zone

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0746

118.03 ₴

at 59.02

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 374.43 ₴ +119.37 (+31.9%)

6% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 6% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×1

Nova | Ranger

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0746

28.93 ₴

at 28.93

Steam

×8

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0040

256.39 ₴

at 32.05

Steam

×1

PP-Bizon | Photic Zone

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0746

59.02 ₴

at 59.02

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 344.34 ₴ +114.65 (+33.3%)

profit on prices without sales at least −2 ₴

6% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 6% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×7

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0039

224.34 ₴

at 32.05

Steam

×2

PP-Bizon | Photic Zone

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0744

118.03 ₴

at 59.02

Steam

×1

MAC-10 | Lapis Gator

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0039

104.19 ₴

at 104.19

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 446.57 ₴ +82.03 (+18.4%)

profit on prices without sales at least −27 ₴

5% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 5% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×6

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0037

192.30 ₴

at 32.05

Steam

×2

PP-Bizon | Photic Zone

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0743

118.03 ₴

at 59.02

Steam

×2

MAC-10 | Lapis Gator

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0037

208.38 ₴

at 104.19

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 518.71 ₴ +44.68 (+8.6%)

profit on prices without sales at least −52 ₴

5% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 5% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×5

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0036

160.25 ₴

at 32.05

Steam

×2

PP-Bizon | Photic Zone

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0741

118.03 ₴

at 59.02

Steam

×3

MAC-10 | Lapis Gator

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0036

312.57 ₴

at 104.19

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 590.85 ₴ +7.34 (+1.2%)

What you get 10 outcomes

Profitable outcome 44%
Losing outcome 56%

at a loss

FAMAS | Neural Net

Factory New

float up to 0.011764

276.46 ₴ 16.00%

Steam

in profit

P2000 | Handgun

Factory New

float up to 0.019607

837.70 ₴ 16.00%

Steam

at a loss

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo

Factory New

float up to 0.010196

407.97 ₴ 16.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

float up to 0.009803

229.17 ₴ 16.00%

Steam

in profit

Negev | Loudmouth

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

687.78 ₴ 16.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

FAMAS | Valence

Factory New

float up to 0.015686

1 344.09 ₴ 4.00%

Steam

in profit

Five-SeveN | Triumvirate

Factory New

float up to 0.011960

584.39 ₴ 4.00%

Steam

in profit

best

Glock-18 | Royal Legion

Factory New

float up to 0.019607

1 942.57 ₴ 4.00%

Steam

at a loss

MAG-7 | Praetorian

Factory New

float up to 0.008823

240.95 ₴ 4.00%

Steam

at a loss

MP7 | Impire

Factory New

float up to 0.007843

328.16 ₴ 4.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Wildfire Collection

Variant 2 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 3 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 4 The Glove Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 5 The Prisma Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 6 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +37.67 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +93.29 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Wildfire Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 10 outcomes

More

How to build