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The Harlequin Collection + The Shadow Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +99.00₽

Invest 215.14₽

Average return 314.14₽

ROI +46.0%

Chance of profit 92%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 529.92₽ · profit at most −215.79₽ (−40.7%) · chance of profit at most 0%

The estimate is made from the market at the time of the nightly check. Since then cheap listings with the needed float may have been bought or relisted. The «Check floats on Steam» button shows the current price.

The float window is very narrow: less than 30% of the wear range fits. The markup was not measured for such a case. The purchase will cost at least the stated number of times more. How much more is unknown, so the investment is shown as “at least” and the profit as “at most”.

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested) × 8 6% of the wear range fits at least ×2.59 151.68 → 392.85 ₽

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear) × 1 6% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 38.33 → 82.79 ₽

XM1014 | Scumbria (Field-Tested) × 1 6% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 25.13 → 54.28 ₽

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

+ a third collection

How to build

6% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 6% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×8

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1638

151.68 ₽

at 18.96

Steam

×1

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0748

38.33 ₽

at 38.33

Steam

×1

XM1014 | Scumbria

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1638

25.13 ₽

at 25.13

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 215.14 ₽ +99.00 (+46.0%)

5% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 5% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×2

Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1622

37.44 ₽

at 18.72

Steam

×1

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1622

18.96 ₽

at 18.96

Steam

×7

SCAR-20 | Green Marine

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1622

150.29 ₽

at 21.47

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 206.69 ₽ +1.79 (+0.9%)

5% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 5% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×1

Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1619

18.72 ₽

at 18.72

Steam

×4

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1619

75.84 ₽

at 18.96

Steam

×4

SCAR-20 | Green Marine

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1619

85.88 ₽

at 21.47

Steam

×1

XM1014 | Scumbria

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1619

25.13 ₽

at 25.13

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 205.57 ₽ +38.13 (+18.6%)

5% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 5% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×2

Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1617

37.44 ₽

at 18.72

Steam

×4

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1617

75.84 ₽

at 18.96

Steam

×2

SCAR-20 | Green Marine

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1617

42.94 ₽

at 21.47

Steam

×2

XM1014 | Scumbria

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1617

50.26 ₽

at 25.13

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 206.48 ₽ +54.83 (+26.6%)

What you get 6 outcomes

Profitable outcome 92%
Losing outcome 8%

in profit

best

AWP | Exothermic

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

420.97 ₽ 45.00%

Steam

in profit

USP-S | Sleeping Potion

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

342.05 ₽ 45.00%

Steam

in profit

Galil AR | Stone Cold

Field-Tested

float up to 0.192857

276.65 ₽ 2.50%

Steam

at a loss

worst

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Field-Tested

float up to 0.214285

135.99 ₽ 2.50%

Steam

at a loss

MP7 | Special Delivery

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.132857

157.00 ₽ 2.50%

Steam

at a loss

P250 | Wingshot

Field-Tested

float up to 0.192857

146.34 ₽ 2.50%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Harlequin Collection + The Shadow Collection

Variant 2 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Harlequin Collection Variant 3 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 4 The Prisma Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 5 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Harlequin Collection Variant 6 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Shadow Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +64.00 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +82.36 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Harlequin Collection and The Shadow Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 10 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2130622 · The Harlequin Collection + The Overpass 2024 Collection · profit 98.23₽ · invest 217.24₽
Nova | Wurst Hölle (Field-Tested) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Field-Tested)
Craft 2130540 · The Harlequin Collection + The Italy Collection · profit 97.17₽ · invest 209.52₽
rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Field-Tested); UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested): float at most 0.166945 instead of 0.163815; UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075894 instead of 0.074805
Craft 2109266 · The Arabesque Collection + The Harlequin Collection · profit 96.71₽ · invest 229.04₽
FAMAS | Snake Song (Field-Tested) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Field-Tested)
Craft 2106672 · The Achroma Collection + The Harlequin Collection · profit 95.33₽ · invest 220.27₽
P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Field-Tested); UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested): float at most 0.167726 instead of 0.163815; UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076165 instead of 0.074805
Craft 2130766 · The Harlequin Collection + The Safehouse Collection · profit 93.87₽ · invest 208.60₽
Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Field-Tested); UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162002 instead of 0.163815; UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074174 instead of 0.074805
Craft 2130668 · The Harlequin Collection + The Prisma Collection · profit 92.41₽ · invest 219.30₽
MAC-10 | Whitefish (Field-Tested) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Field-Tested)
Craft 2122538 · The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Harlequin Collection · profit 91.25₽ · invest 213.33₽
SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Factory New) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Field-Tested); UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162793 instead of 0.163815; UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074449 instead of 0.074805
Craft 2126530 · The Gallery Collection + The Harlequin Collection · profit 90.74₽ · invest 218.01₽
USP-S | 27 (Field-Tested) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Field-Tested)
Craft 2130801 · The Harlequin Collection + The Spectrum 2 Collection · profit 90.59₽ · invest 218.42₽
rare inputs

G3SG1 | Hunter (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Field-Tested); UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested): float at most 0.166217 instead of 0.163815; UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075640 instead of 0.074805
Craft 2102401 · The 2018 Nuke Collection + The Harlequin Collection · profit 90.29₽ · invest 232.99₽
P90 | Facility Negative (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Field-Tested); UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164940 instead of 0.163815; UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075196 instead of 0.074805

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Harlequin Collection + The Shadow Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 6 outcomes

More

How to build