to all crafts

The Harlequin Collection + The Train 2025 Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +185.65₽

Invest 432.84₽

Average return 618.49₽

ROI +42.9%

Chance of profit 93%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 1 046.79₽ · profit at most −428.30₽ (−40.9%) · chance of profit at most 0%

The estimate is made from the market at the time of the nightly check. Since then cheap listings with the needed float may have been bought or relisted. The «Check floats on Steam» button shows the current price.

The float window is very narrow: less than 30% of the wear range fits. The markup was not measured for such a case. The purchase will cost at least the stated number of times more. How much more is unknown, so the investment is shown as “at least” and the profit as “at most”.

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear) × 7 8% of the wear range fits at least ×2.55 268.31 → 684.19 ₽

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New) × 2 8% of the wear range fits at least ×2.21 144.24 → 318.77 ₽

XM1014 | Run Run Run (Field-Tested) × 1 8% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 20.29 → 43.83 ₽

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

+ a third collection

How to build

8% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 8% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×7

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0760

268.31 ₽

at 38.33

Steam

×2

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0053

144.24 ₽

at 72.12

Steam

×1

XM1014 | Run Run Run

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1674

20.29 ₽

at 20.29

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 432.84 ₽ +185.65 (+42.9%)

6% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 6% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×4

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0751

153.32 ₽

at 38.33

Steam

×3

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0045

216.36 ₽

at 72.12

Steam

×1

XM1014 | Run Run Run

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1649

20.29 ₽

at 20.29

Steam

×2

UMP-45 | Late Night Transit

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1649

52.12 ₽

at 26.06

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 442.09 ₽ +127.14 (+28.8%)

6% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 6% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×3

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0751

114.99 ₽

at 38.33

Steam

×3

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0044

216.36 ₽

at 72.12

Steam

×4

UMP-45 | Late Night Transit

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1647

104.24 ₽

at 26.06

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 435.59 ₽ +109.01 (+25.0%)

6% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 6% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×1

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0745

38.33 ₽

at 38.33

Steam

×4

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0039

288.48 ₽

at 72.12

Steam

×1

XM1014 | Run Run Run

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1630

20.29 ₽

at 20.29

Steam

×4

UMP-45 | Late Night Transit

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1630

104.24 ₽

at 26.06

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 451.34 ₽ +68.63 (+15.2%)

What you get 5 outcomes

Profitable outcome 93%
Losing outcome 7%

in profit

AWP | Exothermic

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

721.53 ₽ 45.00%

Steam

in profit

best

USP-S | Sleeping Potion

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

757.64 ₽ 45.00%

Steam

in profit

MAC-10 | Derailment

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

700.00 ₽ 3.33%

Steam

at a loss

Zeus x27 | Charged Up

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.099999

441.49 ₽ 3.33%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Tec-9 | Whiteout

Field-Tested

float up to 0.153999

227.54 ₽ 3.33%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Harlequin Collection + The Train 2025 Collection

Variant 2 only The Train 2025 Collection Variant 3 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Harlequin Collection Variant 4 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Harlequin Collection Variant 5 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Harlequin Collection Variant 6 The Winter Offensive Collection instead of The Harlequin Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +113.92 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +153.12 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Harlequin Collection and The Train 2025 Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 5 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2130178 · The Graphic Design Collection + The Harlequin Collection · profit 197.85₽ · invest 508.19₽
rare inputs

SG 553 | Berry Gel Coat (Field-Tested) instead of XM1014 | Run Run Run (Field-Tested); UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076990 instead of 0.076059; UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New): float at most 0.006116 instead of 0.005302
Craft 2129452 · The Glove Collection + The Harlequin Collection · profit 197.07₽ · invest 489.04₽
MP7 | Cirrus (Field-Tested) instead of XM1014 | Run Run Run (Field-Tested); UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076122 instead of 0.076059; UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New): float at most 0.005357 instead of 0.005302
Craft 2130897 · The Harlequin Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 184.98₽ · invest 482.55₽
rare inputs

MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested) instead of XM1014 | Run Run Run (Field-Tested); UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074727 instead of 0.076059; UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New): float at most 0.004136 instead of 0.005302
Craft 2109264 · The Arabesque Collection + The Harlequin Collection · profit 183.94₽ · invest 451.58₽
FAMAS | Snake Song (Field-Tested) instead of XM1014 | Run Run Run (Field-Tested); UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.079756 instead of 0.076059; UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New): float at most 0.008536 instead of 0.005302
Craft 2130845 · The Harlequin Collection + The Spy Tech Collection · profit 183.93₽ · invest 450.05₽
AUG | Signal Scanner (Field-Tested) instead of XM1014 | Run Run Run (Field-Tested); UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.079756 instead of 0.076059; UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New): float at most 0.008536 instead of 0.005302

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Harlequin Collection + The Train 2025 Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 5 outcomes

More

How to build