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The Shadow Collection + The Wildfire Collection

Classified → Covert

Average profit +81.40$

Invest 174.56$

Average return 255.95$

ROI +46.6%

Chance of profit 90%

With float: invest at least 429.55 $, profit at most −173.59 $

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −175 $

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

≈1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×8

G3SG1 | Flux

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0765

115.19 $

at 14.40

Steam

×2

Nova | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0057

59.37 $

at 29.68

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 174.56 $ +81.40 (+46.6%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −203 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×4

G3SG1 | Flux

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0795

57.59 $

at 14.40

Steam

×4

AWP | Elite Build

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0795

85.98 $

at 21.49

Steam

×2

Nova | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0083

59.37 $

at 29.68

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 202.94 $ +47.90 (+23.6%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −196 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×5

G3SG1 | Flux

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0788

71.99 $

at 14.40

Steam

×3

AWP | Elite Build

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0788

64.48 $

at 21.49

Steam

×2

Nova | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0077

59.37 $

at 29.68

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 195.85 $ +56.27 (+28.7%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −189 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×6

G3SG1 | Flux

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0780

86.39 $

at 14.40

Steam

×2

AWP | Elite Build

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0780

42.99 $

at 21.49

Steam

×2

Nova | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0070

59.37 $

at 29.68

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 188.75 $ +64.65 (+34.2%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −182 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×7

G3SG1 | Flux

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0773

100.79 $

at 14.40

Steam

×1

AWP | Elite Build

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0773

21.49 $

at 21.49

Steam

×2

Nova | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0064

59.37 $

at 29.68

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 181.65 $ +73.02 (+40.2%)

What you get 4 outcomes

Profitable outcome 90%
Losing outcome 10%

in profit

M4A1-S | Golden Coil

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

325.57 $ 40.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

USP-S | Kill Confirmed

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

269.01 $ 40.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

best

AK-47 | Fuel Injector

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

474.79 $ 10.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

worst

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

float up to 0.044799

90.38 $ 10.00%

price without deals

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Shadow Collection + The Wildfire Collection

Variant 2 The Snakebite Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 3 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 4 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 5 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 6 The Shattered Web Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +34.19 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +63.37 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Shadow Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 18 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2128512 · The Gamma Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 97.58$ · invest 145.99$
profit on prices without salesat least −109 $ rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Factory New) instead of Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New); G3SG1 | Flux (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076086 instead of 0.076588
Craft 2137482 · The Revolver Case Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 95.21$ · invest 133.74$
profit on prices without salesat least −134 $ rare inputs pricier variants exist

G3SG1 | The Executioner (Field-Tested) instead of Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New); G3SG1 | Flux (Minimal Wear): 7 pcs instead of 8; G3SG1 | Flux (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075686 instead of 0.076588
Craft 2132630 · The Kilowatt Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 91.73$ · invest 132.44$
profit on prices without salesat least −115 $ rare inputs

Zeus x27 | Olympus (Factory New) instead of Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New); G3SG1 | Flux (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076762 instead of 0.076588
Craft 2126127 · The Fracture Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 91.12$ · invest 128.41$
profit on prices without salesat least −116 $ rare inputs

XM1014 | Entombed (Factory New) instead of Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New); G3SG1 | Flux (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076277 instead of 0.076588
Craft 2117505 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 90.98$ · invest 157.81$
profit on prices without salesat least −158 $ rare inputs

UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Factory New) instead of Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New); G3SG1 | Flux (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076968 instead of 0.076588
Craft 2119467 · The Clutch Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 89.41$ · invest 134.21$
profit on prices without salesat least −117 $ rare inputs

AUG | Stymphalian (Factory New) instead of Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New); G3SG1 | Flux (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076666 instead of 0.076588
Craft 2136788 · The Recoil Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 88.86$ · invest 135.14$
profit on prices without salesat least −127 $ rare inputs

P250 | Visions (Factory New) instead of Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New); G3SG1 | Flux (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076829 instead of 0.076588
Craft 2114785 · The CS20 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 88.46$ · invest 138.15$
profit on prices without salesat least −133 $ rare inputs

AUG | Death by Puppy (Factory New) instead of Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New); G3SG1 | Flux (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075863 instead of 0.076588
Craft 2121938 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 87.16$ · invest 159.87$
profit on prices without salesat least −160 $ rare inputs

P90 | Deathgaze (Factory New) instead of Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New); G3SG1 | Flux (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077310 instead of 0.076588
Craft 2137158 · The Revolution Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 86.63$ · invest 137.80$
profit on prices without salesat least −120 $ rare inputs

AWP | Duality (Factory New) instead of Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New); G3SG1 | Flux (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077021 instead of 0.076588
Craft 2131371 · The Horizon Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 85.35$ · invest 157.99$
profit on prices without salesat least −121 $ rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Devourer (Factory New) instead of Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New); G3SG1 | Flux (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077021 instead of 0.076588
Craft 2135331 · The Phoenix Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 84.83$ · invest 140.93$
profit on prices without salesat least −131 $ rare inputs

Nova | Antique (Factory New) instead of Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New); G3SG1 | Flux (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075282 instead of 0.076588
Craft 2135746 · The Prisma 2 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 83.99$ · invest 149.35$
profit on prices without salesat least −134 $ rare inputs

MAG-7 | Justice (Factory New) instead of Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New); G3SG1 | Flux (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077310 instead of 0.076588
Craft 2123043 · The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 83.64$ · invest 147.84$
profit on prices without salesat least −123 $ rare inputs

MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Factory New) instead of Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New); G3SG1 | Flux (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077310 instead of 0.076588
Craft 2125282 · The Fever Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 82.33$ · invest 147.16$
profit on prices without salesat least −124 $ rare inputs

UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Factory New) instead of Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New); G3SG1 | Flux (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077310 instead of 0.076588
Craft 2113794 · The Breakout Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 81.78$ · invest 166.62$
profit on prices without salesat least −151 $ rare inputs

Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New) instead of Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New); G3SG1 | Flux (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075282 instead of 0.076588
Craft 2131879 · The Huntsman Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 81.08$ · invest 190.80$
profit on prices without salesat least −184 $ rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Cyrex (Factory New) instead of Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New); G3SG1 | Flux (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076277 instead of 0.076588
Craft 2118409 · The Chroma Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 75.08$ · invest 166.77$
profit on prices without salesat least −148 $ rare inputs

P250 | Muertos (Factory New) instead of Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New); G3SG1 | Flux (Minimal Wear): 7 pcs instead of 8; G3SG1 | Flux (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074571 instead of 0.076588

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Shadow Collection + The Wildfire Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 4 outcomes

More

How to build