The Wildfire Collection + The Gallery Collection

StatTrak™ Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Average profit −6 057.95₴

Invest 14 440.86₴

Average return 8 382.90₴

ROI −42.0%

Chance of profit 12%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 33 327.30₴ · profit at most −24 944.40₴ (−74.8%) · chance of profit at most 0%

The estimate is made from the market at the time of the nightly check. Since then cheap listings with the needed float may have been bought or relisted. The «Check floats on Steam» button shows the current price.

The float window is very narrow: less than 30% of the wear range fits. The markup was not measured for such a case. The purchase will cost at least the stated number of times more. How much more is unknown, so the investment is shown as “at least” and the profit as “at most”.

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear) × 4 12% of the wear range fits at least ×2.37 10 414.91 → 24 631.25 ₴

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Gold Toof (Minimal Wear) × 1 12% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 4 025.95 → 8 696.05 ₴

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

The gain is understated. 1 outcome has no price on Steam: it is above its cap and is not listed on the market. It counts as zero in the calculation and accounts for 6.2% of the probability.

+ a third collection

How to build

12% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

×4

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0798

10 414.91 ₴

at 2 603.73

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Gold Toof

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0798

4 025.95 ₴

at 4 025.95

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 14 440.86 ₴ −6 057.95 (−42.0%)

What you get 26 outcomes

Profitable outcome 12%
Losing outcome 82%
Above the Steam cap 6%

Order

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.009729

12 578.33 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

best

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.040405

30 940.51 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

15 508.59 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Stained

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

8 752.58 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

19 572.54 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

5 031.56 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

6 353.67 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

13 236.30 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Night

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

9 433.44 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

6 792.26 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

4 326.82 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife

no wear

6 743.14 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.009729

9 167.65 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.040405

8 049.99 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Blue Steel

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

4 135.62 ₴ 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Stained

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

4 235.79 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Case Hardened

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

8 885.35 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Forest DDPAT

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

3 506.35 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Boreal Forest

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

3 235.40 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Crimson Web

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

8 315.52 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Scorched

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

3 450.00 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Safari Mesh

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

3 099.24 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Night Stripe

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

4 405.48 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Urban Masked

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

4 025.36 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife

no wear

5 031.56 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Wildfire Collection + The Gallery Collection

Variant 2 The Winter Offensive Collection instead of The Gallery Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −6 757.95 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −6 146.37 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Gallery Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 3 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2147728 · The Wildfire Collection + The Spectrum 2 Collection · profit −5 519.60₴ · invest 16 662.68₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ P250 | See Ya Later (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Gold Toof (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.079195 instead of 0.079815
Craft 2147736 · The Spectrum 2 Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −5 519.60₴ · invest 16 662.68₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ P250 | See Ya Later (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Gold Toof (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.079195 instead of 0.079815
Craft 2145889 · The Gallery Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −6 057.95₴ · invest 14 440.86₴
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Wildfire Collection + The Gallery Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 26 outcomes

More

How to build