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The 2021 Vertigo Collection + The Dead Hand Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit −4.02$

Invest 8.33$

Average return 4.32$

ROI −48.2%

Chance of profit 13%

With float: invest 8.40 $, profit −4.08 $

The gain is understated: 1 outcome has no price, that is 6.7% of the chance

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

100% of lots fit ≈ enough for 7 contracts · easy (by listings)

×2

Souvenir P90 | Schematic

Well-Worn

any lot

7.61 $

at 3.81

souvenirSteam

×8

UMP-45 | Fragment

Battle-Scarred

any lot

0.72 $

at 0.09

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 8.33 $ −4.02 (−48.2%)

What you get 8 outcomes

Profitable outcome 13%
Losing outcome 80%
Above the Steam cap 7%

at a loss

Desert Eagle | Firebreathing

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.980000

0.82 $ 16.00%

Steam

at a loss

Galil AR | Galigator

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.980000

0.77 $ 16.00%

Steam

at a loss

M4A1-S | Electrum

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.980000

0.95 $ 16.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

MP7 | Amberline

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.980000

0.72 $ 16.00%

Steam

at a loss

MP9 | Urban Sovereign

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.980000

0.77 $ 16.00%

Steam

Galil AR | CAUTION!

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.539000

not on Steam: above the cap 6.67%

Steam

in profit

MAG-7 | Prism Terrace

Field-Tested

float up to 0.362600

30.61 $ 6.67%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

best

P250 | Digital Architect

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.480200

34.16 $ 6.67%

price without deals price cut

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The 2021 Vertigo Collection + The Dead Hand Collection

Variant 2 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The 2021 Vertigo Collection Variant 3 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Dead Hand Collection Variant 4 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The 2021 Vertigo Collection Variant 5 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The Dead Hand Collection Variant 6 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The 2021 Vertigo Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −4.42 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −4.10 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The 2021 Vertigo Collection and The Dead Hand Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 1 craft almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2251393 · The 2021 Vertigo Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit −4.02$ · invest 8.33$
outcome without sales no outcome price rare inputs

P250 | Digital Architect: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; Souvenir P90 | Schematic (Well-Worn): float at most 0.440781 instead of 0.450000; UMP-45 | Fragment (Battle-Scarred): float at most 0.927568 instead of 1.000000

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The 2021 Vertigo Collection + The Dead Hand Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 8 outcomes

More

How to build