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The Falchion Collection + The Shadow Collection

Restricted → Classified

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit +41.39₽

Invest 844.43₽

Average return 885.82₽

ROI +4.9%

Chance of profit 40%

With float: invest at least 2 032.21 ₽, profit at most −1 146.40 ₽

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Share of fitting lots unknown: the price is understated

×3

P2000 | Handgun

Well-Worn

buy 0.3800–0.3835

196.23 ₽

at 65.41

Steam

×6

Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1616

538.92 ₽

at 89.82

Steam

×1

MP7 | Special Delivery

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1616

109.28 ₽

at 109.28

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 844.43 ₽ +41.39 (+4.9%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

P2000 | Handgun

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1635

85.24 ₽

at 85.24

Steam

×4

Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1635

359.28 ₽

at 89.82

Steam

×5

MP7 | Special Delivery

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1635

546.40 ₽

at 109.28

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 990.92 ₽ +18.48 (+1.9%)

Share of fitting lots unknown: the price is understated

×1

P2000 | Handgun

Well-Worn

buy 0.3800–0.3840

65.41 ₽

at 65.41

Steam

×6

Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1632

538.92 ₽

at 89.82

Steam

×1

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Battle-Scarred

buy 0.4500–0.4817

95.00 ₽

at 95.00

Steam

×2

MP7 | Special Delivery

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1632

218.56 ₽

at 109.28

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 917.89 ₽ +29.72 (+3.2%)

What you get 6 outcomes

Profitable outcome 40%
Losing outcome 60%

at a loss

worst

CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket

Field-Tested

float up to 0.166666

388.02 ₽ 30.00%

Steam

in profit

best

MP7 | Nemesis

Factory New

float up to 0.053333

2 145.44 ₽ 30.00%

Steam

at a loss

SG 553 | Cyrex

Field-Tested

float up to 0.166666

416.02 ₽ 30.00%

Steam

in profit

AK-47 | Frontside Misty

Field-Tested

float up to 0.161666

1 500.65 ₽ 3.33%

Steam

in profit

G3SG1 | Flux

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

1 079.09 ₽ 3.33%

Steam

in profit

SSG 08 | Big Iron

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.106666

1 435.67 ₽ 3.33%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Shadow Collection

Variant 2 The Horizon Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 3 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 4 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 5 The Spectrum 2 Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 6 only The Shadow Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −105.23 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −7.08 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Shadow Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 2 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2269972 · The Falchion Collection + The Gallery Collection · profit 41.23₽ · invest 795.68₽
rare inputs

P90 | Randy Rush (Field-Tested) instead of MP7 | Special Delivery (Field-Tested); P2000 | Handgun (Well-Worn): float at most 0.384540 instead of 0.383558; Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164918 instead of 0.161691
Craft 2260182 · The CS20 Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit 39.94₽ · invest 783.15₽
rare inputs

M249 | Aztec (Field-Tested) instead of MP7 | Special Delivery (Field-Tested); P2000 | Handgun (Well-Worn): float at most 0.386350 instead of 0.383558; Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested): float at most 0.170865 instead of 0.161691

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Shadow Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 6 outcomes

More

How to build