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The Train 2025 Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +38.44$

Invest 24.25$

Average return 62.69$

ROI +158.5%

Chance of profit 35%

With float: invest at least 63.03 $, profit at most −0.34 $

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×9

XM1014 | Run Run Run

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0044

22.67 $

at 2.52

Steam

×1

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0751

1.58 $

at 1.58

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 24.25 $ +38.44 (+158.5%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −6 $

≈1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×3

XM1014 | Run Run Run

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0043

7.56 $

at 2.52

Steam

×3

G3SG1 | Murky

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0043

5.95 $

at 1.98

Steam

×4

MP9 | Dart

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0043

14.01 $

at 3.50

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 27.51 $ +12.00 (+43.6%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −14 $

≈1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×2

XM1014 | Run Run Run

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0041

5.04 $

at 2.52

Steam

×3

G3SG1 | Murky

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0041

5.95 $

at 1.98

Steam

×5

MP9 | Dart

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0041

17.52 $

at 3.50

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 28.50 $ +7.15 (+25.1%)

What you get 7 outcomes

Profitable outcome 35%
Losing outcome 65%

at a loss

MAC-10 | Derailment

Factory New

float up to 0.007446

9.00 $ 30.00%

Steam

at a loss

Zeus x27 | Charged Up

Factory New

float up to 0.010638

12.82 $ 30.00%

Steam

in profit

best

Tec-9 | Whiteout

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

207.79 $ 30.00%

Steam

at a loss

Glock-18 | Grinder

Factory New

float up to 0.022446

9.21 $ 2.50%

Steam

in profit

M4A4 | Griffin

Factory New

float up to 0.008510

82.60 $ 2.50%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

M4A1-S | Basilisk

Factory New

float up to 0.007233

29.68 $ 2.50%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

worst

Sawed-Off | Highwayman

Factory New

float up to 0.010638

6.96 $ 2.50%

price without deals

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Train 2025 Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Variant 2 only The Train 2025 Collection Variant 3 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection Variant 4 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection Variant 5 The Winter Offensive Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection Variant 6 The Wildfire Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +25.50 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +31.98 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Train 2025 Collection and The Vanguard Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 41 craft almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2259001 · The Bravo Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 41.04$ · invest 27.88$
sells slowly rare inputs

G3SG1 | Demeter (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.006828 instead of 0.004494
Craft 2274382 · The Gamma 2 Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 39.29$ · invest 23.58$
sells slowly rare inputs

XM1014 | Slipstream (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.004494
Craft 2285948 · The Train 2025 Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 39.19$ · invest 29.79$
sells slowly rare inputs

MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.006439 instead of 0.004494
Craft 2250553 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 38.68$ · invest 26.76$
sells slowly rare inputs

Souvenir M249 | Humidor (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.004494
Craft 2285961 · The Train 2025 Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 38.48$ · invest 26.12$
sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007369 instead of 0.004494
Craft 2254129 · The Ancient Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 38.31$ · invest 26.81$
sells slowly rare inputs

Souvenir FAMAS | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.006439 instead of 0.004494
Craft 2247956 · The 2018 Inferno Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 37.64$ · invest 23.42$
sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Sawed-Off | Brake Light (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.004332 instead of 0.004494
Craft 2284678 · The Safehouse Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 37.61$ · invest 23.37$
sells slowly rare inputs

Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007308 instead of 0.004494
Craft 2285112 · The Shattered Web Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 37.52$ · invest 24.78$
sells slowly rare inputs

M249 | Warbird (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.005232 instead of 0.004494
Craft 2248741 · The 2018 Nuke Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 37.51$ · invest 24.54$
sells slowly rare inputs

P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.004494
Craft 2282124 · The Phoenix Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 37.42$ · invest 23.27$
sells slowly rare inputs

UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.005684 instead of 0.004494
Craft 2281573 · The Overpass 2024 Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 37.34$ · invest 23.26$
sells slowly rare inputs

Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.004494
Craft 2285310 · The Snakebite Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 37.32$ · invest 23.16$
sells slowly rare inputs

UMP-45 | Oscillator (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.004494
Craft 2283266 · The Radiant Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 37.31$ · invest 23.35$
sells slowly rare inputs

M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.004494
Craft 2278027 · The Horizon Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 37.30$ · invest 23.59$
sells slowly rare inputs

Dual Berettas | Shred (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.004494
Craft 2270706 · The Falchion Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 37.30$ · invest 23.53$
sells slowly rare inputs

UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007889 instead of 0.004494
Craft 2262548 · The Chroma 2 Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 37.27$ · invest 23.00$
sells slowly rare inputs

Negev | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.005541 instead of 0.004494
Craft 2264710 · The Chroma Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 37.27$ · invest 23.56$
sells slowly rare inputs

XM1014 | Quicksilver (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.004494
Craft 2263774 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 37.24$ · invest 23.23$
sells slowly rare inputs

M249 | Spectre (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.004494
Craft 2275108 · The Gamma Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 37.23$ · invest 23.16$
sells slowly rare inputs

SG 553 | Aerial (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007752 instead of 0.004494
Craft 2284336 · The Revolver Case Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 37.21$ · invest 23.34$
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Outbreak (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.004494
Craft 2258309 · The Boreal Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 37.21$ · invest 23.04$
sells slowly rare inputs

XM1014 | Copperflage (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007752 instead of 0.004494
Craft 2284848 · The Shadow Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 37.20$ · invest 23.68$
sells slowly rare inputs

MAC-10 | Rangeen (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.004494
Craft 2285763 · The Sport & Field Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 37.19$ · invest 23.55$
sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

P250 | Small Game (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007889 instead of 0.004494
Craft 2257092 · The Ascent Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 37.19$ · invest 23.59$
sells slowly rare inputs

P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007752 instead of 0.004494
Craft 2282925 · The Prisma Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 37.18$ · invest 23.82$
sells slowly rare inputs

FAMAS | Crypsis (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007668 instead of 0.004494
Craft 2277399 · The Harlequin Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 37.17$ · invest 23.52$
sells slowly rare inputs

Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007839 instead of 0.004494
Craft 2279370 · The Kilowatt Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 37.16$ · invest 22.96$
sells slowly rare inputs

Dual Berettas | Hideout (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007887 instead of 0.004494
Craft 2267255 · The Danger Zone Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 37.16$ · invest 23.01$
sells slowly rare inputs

Tec-9 | Fubar (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.005968 instead of 0.004494
Craft 2273519 · The Gallery Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 37.14$ · invest 23.34$
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Trail Blazer (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007892 instead of 0.004494
Craft 2272486 · The Fracture Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 37.13$ · invest 23.00$
sells slowly rare inputs

SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007889 instead of 0.004494
Craft 2269382 · The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 37.13$ · invest 22.95$
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007703 instead of 0.004494
Craft 2282519 · The Prisma 2 Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 37.12$ · invest 23.17$
sells slowly rare inputs

R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007752 instead of 0.004494
Craft 2253070 · The Achroma Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 37.10$ · invest 23.42$
sells slowly rare inputs

P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007825 instead of 0.004494
Craft 2285483 · The Spectrum 2 Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 37.09$ · invest 23.08$
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.004494
Craft 2265867 · The Clutch Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 37.05$ · invest 23.06$
sells slowly rare inputs

XM1014 | Oxide Blaze (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007889 instead of 0.004494
Craft 2283630 · The Recoil Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 37.05$ · invest 23.05$
sells slowly rare inputs

Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007889 instead of 0.004494
Craft 2285941 · The Train 2025 Collection + The Winter Offensive Collection · profit 37.04$ · invest 24.20$
sells slowly rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.003780 instead of 0.004494
Craft 2259852 · The Breakout Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 37.03$ · invest 23.24$
sells slowly rare inputs

Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.004494
Craft 2284009 · The Revolution Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 37.02$ · invest 23.04$
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Fragments (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007976 instead of 0.004494
Craft 2285626 · The Spectrum Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 37.00$ · invest 23.26$
sells slowly rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Zander (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.006436 instead of 0.004494

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Train 2025 Collection + The Vanguard Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 7 outcomes

More

How to build