The Wildfire Collection + The Kilowatt Collection

StatTrak™ Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Average profit −7 113.77₴

Invest 15 550.37₴

Average return 8 436.60₴

ROI −45.8%

Chance of profit 12%

With float: invest at least 36 147.07 ₴, profit at most −27 710.47 ₴

The gain is understated: 1 outcome has no price, that is 6.2% of the chance

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

≈2% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×4

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0838

12 479.42 ₴

at 3 119.85

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ AWP | Chrome Cannon

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0838

3 070.95 ₴

at 3 070.95

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 15 550.37 ₴ −7 113.77 (−45.8%)

What you get 26 outcomes

Profitable outcome 12%
Losing outcome 82%
Above the Steam cap 6%

Order

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.009729

12 578.35 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

best

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.040405

30 940.54 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

15 508.61 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Stained

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

8 752.59 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

19 572.56 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

5 031.57 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

6 353.68 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

15 248.31 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Night

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

8 733.10 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

6 792.27 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

4 326.83 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife

no wear

6 742.85 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.009729

9 167.66 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.040405

7 044.50 ₴ 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Blue Steel

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

5 934.11 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Stained

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

4 229.66 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Case Hardened

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

8 144.91 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Forest DDPAT

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

3 463.59 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Boreal Forest

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

3 235.17 ₴ 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Crimson Web

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

8 256.11 ₴ 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Scorched

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

3 323.44 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Safari Mesh

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

2 200.87 ₴ 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Night Stripe

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

4 405.48 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Urban Masked

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

3 621.82 ₴ 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife

no wear

5 283.78 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

No other variants in this recount

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −7 799.24 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −7 226.95 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Kilowatt Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 13 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2294031 · The Wildfire Collection + The Prisma 2 Collection · profit −6 511.77₴ · invest 16 529.68₴
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ AWP | Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear)
Craft 2294042 · The Prisma 2 Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −6 511.77₴ · invest 16 529.68₴
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ AWP | Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear)
Craft 2294704 · The Wildfire Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit −6 794.89₴ · invest 18 638.41₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ P2000 | Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ AWP | Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076813 instead of 0.083876
Craft 2294712 · The Vanguard Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −6 794.89₴ · invest 18 638.41₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ P2000 | Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ AWP | Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076813 instead of 0.083876
Craft 2292842 · The Wildfire Collection + The Gamma 2 Collection · profit −6 834.47₴ · invest 19 685.00₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Roll Cage (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ AWP | Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074270 instead of 0.083876
Craft 2292860 · The Gamma 2 Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −6 834.47₴ · invest 19 685.00₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Roll Cage (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ AWP | Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074270 instead of 0.083876
Craft 2292843 · The Wildfire Collection + The Gamma 2 Collection · profit −6 975.83₴ · invest 19 447.01₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ AWP | Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.081081 instead of 0.083876
Craft 2292861 · The Gamma 2 Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −6 975.83₴ · invest 19 447.01₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ AWP | Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.081081 instead of 0.083876
Craft 2294538 · The Wildfire Collection + The Spectrum 2 Collection · profit −6 975.98₴ · invest 18 203.47₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ P250 | See Ya Later (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ AWP | Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.079195 instead of 0.083876
Craft 2294549 · The Spectrum 2 Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −6 975.98₴ · invest 18 203.47₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ P250 | See Ya Later (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ AWP | Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.079195 instead of 0.083876
Craft 2294805 · The eSports 2014 Summer Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −7 107.13₴ · invest 18 950.65₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ AWP | Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076684 instead of 0.083876
Craft 2294813 · The Wildfire Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit −7 107.13₴ · invest 18 950.65₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ AWP | Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076684 instead of 0.083876
Craft 2293579 · The Kilowatt Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −7 113.76₴ · invest 15 550.37₴
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Wildfire Collection + The Kilowatt Collection

How to build i Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 26 outcomes

More

How to build