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The Falchion Collection + The Shadow Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit +3.58$

Invest 5.47$

Average return 9.05$

ROI +65.3%

Chance of profit 74%

With float: invest at least 13.64 $, profit at most −4.59 $

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0043

0.86 $

at 0.86

Steam

×1

SCAR-20 | Green Marine

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0749

0.39 $

at 0.39

Steam

×8

XM1014 | Scumbria

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0749

4.22 $

at 0.53

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 5.47 $ +3.58 (+65.3%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×7

P90 | Elite Build

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0749

4.35 $

at 0.62

Steam

×1

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0043

0.86 $

at 0.86

Steam

×1

SCAR-20 | Green Marine

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0749

0.39 $

at 0.39

Steam

×1

XM1014 | Scumbria

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0749

0.53 $

at 0.53

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 6.13 $ +1.36 (+22.2%)

What you get 9 outcomes

Profitable outcome 72%
Losing outcome 26%
About break-even 2%

in profit

best

Galil AR | Stone Cold

Factory New

float up to 0.062999

21.85 $ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

7.52 $ 22.50%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

MP7 | Special Delivery

Factory New

float up to 0.043399

5.70 $ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

P250 | Wingshot

Factory New

float up to 0.062999

7.60 $ 22.50%

Steam

about break-even

FAMAS | Neural Net

Factory New

float up to 0.041999

6.37 $ 2.00%

Steam

in profit

P2000 | Handgun

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

19.64 $ 2.00%

Steam

in profit

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo

Factory New

float up to 0.036399

8.12 $ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

float up to 0.034999

5.25 $ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

float up to 0.175699

1.09 $ 2.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Shadow Collection

Variant 2 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 3 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 4 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 5 The Glove Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 6 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Falchion Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +1.92 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +2.89 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Shadow Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 10 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2329941 · The Phoenix Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 3.62$ · invest 5.37$
sells slowly rare inputs

MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074590 instead of 0.074999; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074590 instead of 0.074999
Craft 2332694 · The Shadow Collection + The Spectrum 2 Collection · profit 3.58$ · invest 5.02$
rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074772 instead of 0.074999; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074772 instead of 0.074999
Craft 2308922 · The CS20 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 3.56$ · invest 5.34$
rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074924 instead of 0.074999; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074924 instead of 0.074999
Craft 2313815 · The Clutch Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 3.56$ · invest 5.01$
rare inputs

XM1014 | Oxide Blaze (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)
Craft 2331414 · The Recoil Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 3.55$ · invest 4.99$
rare inputs

Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)
Craft 2307837 · The Breakout Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 3.53$ · invest 5.19$
sells slowly rare inputs

Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074772 instead of 0.074999; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074772 instead of 0.074999
Craft 2331783 · The Revolution Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 3.49$ · invest 5.02$
rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Fragments (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075061 instead of 0.074999; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075061 instead of 0.074999
Craft 2316245 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 3.40$ · invest 5.42$
rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Fusion (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075185 instead of 0.074999; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075185 instead of 0.074999
Craft 2323585 · The Genesis Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 3.39$ · invest 5.42$
rare inputs

MAG-7 | MAGnitude (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075185 instead of 0.074999; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075185 instead of 0.074999
Craft 2319568 · The Fever Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 3.29$ · invest 5.29$
rare inputs

MAG-7 | Resupply (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075185 instead of 0.074999; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075185 instead of 0.074999

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Shadow Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 9 outcomes

More

How to build