The Falchion Collection + The Dead Hand Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit +13 827.93₴

Invest 44 850.91₴

Average return 58 678.85₴

ROI +30.8%

Chance of profit 69%

With float: invest at least 104 422.00 ₴, profit at most −45 743.15 ₴

The gain is understated: 1 outcome has no price, that is 1.5% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −31 326.01 ₴

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

6% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×1

AWP | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

8 050.78 ₴

at 8 050.78

Steam

×4

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

36 800.14 ₴

at 9 200.03

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 44 850.91 ₴ +13 827.93 (+30.8%)

The gain is understated: 1 outcome has no price, that is 3.1% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −8 772 ₴

6% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×2

AWP | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

16 101.55 ₴

at 8 050.78

Steam

×3

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

27 600.10 ₴

at 9 200.03

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 43 701.65 ₴ +2 605.21 (+6.0%)

What you get 35 outcomes

Profitable outcome 62%
Losing outcome 29%
About break-even 7%
Above the Steam cap 2%

Order

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Brocade Crane

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

59 628.09 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Brocade Flowers

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

71 513.44 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Dragon Fists

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

76 879.89 ₴ 3.64%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Garden

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

53 569.23 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Hand Sweaters

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

66 713.95 ₴ 3.64%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Plum Quill

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

42 622.80 ₴ 3.64%

price without deals

Steam

about break-even

★ Driver Gloves | Seigaiha

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

52 829.97 ₴ 3.64%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Wave Chaser

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

76 398.28 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Lime Polycam

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

71 016.32 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Cloud Chaser

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

67 420.56 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Blackbook

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

67 375.61 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Chocolate Chesterfield

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

38 204.98 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

best

★ Specialist Gloves | Pillow Punchers

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

209 722.88 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Sunburst

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

63 877.38 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Big Swell

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

62 897.98 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Violet Beadwork

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

62 780.22 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

about break-even

★ Sport Gloves | Frosty

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

47 842.52 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Blaze

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

76 980.57 ₴ 3.64%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Sport Gloves | Creme Pinstripe

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

33 709.83 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Red Racer

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

62 484.43 ₴ 3.64%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Ultra Violent

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

195 969.09 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Occult

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

77 234.74 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

10 202.85 ₴ 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

10 566.00 ₴ 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

17 574.13 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

10 589.52 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

19 554.88 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

13 236.90 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

12 276.10 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

12 190.08 ₴ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

6 515.52 ₴ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

8 206.88 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

8 271.29 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Falchion Knife

no wear

5 844.05 ₴ 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Dead Hand Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Dead Hand Collection Variant 4 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 5 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Dead Hand Collection Variant 6 The Breakout Collection instead of The Dead Hand Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +13 407.42 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +13 639.45 ₴ historical median

5% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Dead Hand Collection and The Falchion Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 7 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2445289 · The Gallery Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 14 985.71₴ · invest 43 341.32₴
sale unreliable marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Gold Toof (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.012584 instead of 0.013513
Craft 2445292 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Gallery Collection · profit 14 985.71₴ · invest 43 341.32₴
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Gold Toof (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.012584 instead of 0.013513
Craft 2445423 · The eSports 2014 Summer Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 14 073.36₴ · invest 48 047.61₴
profit on prices without salesat least −245 ₴ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.012015 instead of 0.013513
Craft 2445425 · The Dead Hand Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 14 073.36₴ · invest 48 047.61₴
profit on prices without salesat least −245 ₴ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.012015 instead of 0.013513
Craft 2445274 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit 13 827.94₴ · invest 44 850.91₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 2445309 · The Horizon Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 13 660.26₴ · invest 46 612.20₴
profit on prices without salesat least −807 ₴ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

Desert Eagle | Code Red (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)
Craft 2445312 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Horizon Collection · profit 13 660.26₴ · invest 46 612.20₴
profit on prices without salesat least −807 ₴ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

Desert Eagle | Code Red (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Dead Hand Collection

How to build i Ways to build 3 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 35 outcomes

More

How to build