The Wildfire Collection + The Breakout Collection

StatTrak™ Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit −57 476.20₸

Invest 230 509.49₸

Average return 173 033.29₸

ROI −24.9%

Chance of profit 26%

With float: invest at least 507 347.50 ₸, profit at most −334 314.21 ₸

The gain is understated: 1 outcome has no price, that is 6.2% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −87 908.02 ₸

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

≈2% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×3

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0827

94 470.18 ₸

at 31 490.06

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0111

41 744.93 ₸

at 41 744.93

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1866

94 294.38 ₸

at 94 294.38

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 230 509.49 ₸ −57 476.20 (−24.9%)

What you get 26 outcomes

Profitable outcome 26%
Losing outcome 68%
Above the Steam cap 6%

Order

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.009729

111 745.40 ₸ 6.15%

pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.040405

312 352.61 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

156 563.32 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Stained

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

88 359.63 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

197 589.97 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

50 794.95 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

61 469.47 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

153 935.58 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Night

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

88 162.83 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

68 569.67 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

43 680.42 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife

no wear

68 070.75 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

best

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.009729

896 378.42 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.040405

666 558.61 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

609 522.27 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Stained

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

406 618.07 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

731 401.31 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

365 175.52 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

365 711.00 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

777 135.24 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Night

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

566 862.62 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Scorched

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

399 546.20 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

319 293.32 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

513 014.13 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife

no wear

455 501.38 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist

Steam

float markup by input how many times more the lots with the needed float cost

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear) × 3 16% of the wear range fits at least ×2.26 94 470.18 → 213 502.61 ₸

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New) × 1 16% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 41 744.93 → 90 169.05 ₸

StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) × 1 16% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 94 294.38 → 203 675.86 ₸

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Average float of the set

average normalized 0.121621522

outcomes come out up to 0.009729, 0.040405, 0.121621, 0.121621, 0.121621, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.000000, 0.009729, 0.040405, 0.121621, 0.121621, 0.121621, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.000000

How to read float

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

I already have items

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Wildfire Collection + The Breakout Collection

Variant 2 The Phoenix Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −67 351.03 ₸ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −57 747.36 ₸ historical median

2% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Breakout Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 1 craft almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2448506 · The Breakout Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −57 476.20₸ · invest 230 509.49₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Wildfire Collection + The Breakout Collection

How to build i Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 26 outcomes

More

How to build