The Shadow Collection + The CS20 Collection

StatTrak™ Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit −12 433.35₽

Invest 24 648.60₽

Average return 12 215.25₽

ROI −50.4%

Chance of profit 12%

With float: invest 53 958.17 ₽, profit −41 742.92 ₽

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 13.8% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −13 761.66 ₽

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

share of fitting lots unknown assemble: no data

×1

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil

Well-Worn

buy 0.3800–0.4045

10 056.44 ₽

at 10 056.44

Steam

×4

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Commemoration

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.2306

14 592.16 ₽

at 3 648.04

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 24 648.60 ₽ −12 433.35 (−50.4%)

What you get 26 outcomes

Profitable outcome 12%
Losing outcome 74%
Above the Steam cap 14%

Order

in profit

best

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.035999

43 700.00 ₽ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Slaughter

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.122499

22 402.35 ₽ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Blue Steel

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

15 385.10 ₽ 6.15%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Stained

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

12 600.96 ₽ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Case Hardened

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

13 113.58 ₽ 6.15%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Forest DDPAT

Well-Worn

float up to 0.392999

9 763.54 ₽ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Boreal Forest

Well-Worn

float up to 0.392999

9 728.32 ₽ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Crimson Web

Well-Worn

float up to 0.392999

22 025.48 ₽ 6.15%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Scorched

Well-Worn

float up to 0.392999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Safari Mesh

Well-Worn

float up to 0.392999

6 137.45 ₽ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Night Stripe

Well-Worn

float up to 0.392999

9 821.63 ₽ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Urban Masked

Well-Worn

float up to 0.392999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife

no wear

33 260.26 ₽ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.035999

18 577.00 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Slaughter

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.122499

14 900.00 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

7 318.46 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Stained

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

8 761.71 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Case Hardened

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

12 647.67 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Forest DDPAT

Well-Worn

float up to 0.392999

5 429.93 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Boreal Forest

Well-Worn

float up to 0.392999

4 370.38 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Crimson Web

Well-Worn

float up to 0.392999

8 850.56 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Night

Well-Worn

float up to 0.392999

5 750.30 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Scorched

Well-Worn

float up to 0.392999

7 530.15 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Safari Mesh

Well-Worn

float up to 0.392999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Urban Masked

Well-Worn

float up to 0.392999

6 670.00 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers

no wear

9 339.79 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

No other variants in this recount

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −13 780.34 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −12 102.90 ₽ historical median

6% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The CS20 Collection and The Shadow Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 3 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2448806 · The CS20 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit −12 433.35₽ · invest 24 648.60₽
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 2448802 · The Shadow Collection + The CS20 Collection · profit −12 843.02₽ · invest 24 648.60₽
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Blue Steel: Battle-Scarred instead of Well-Worn; ★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Stained: Battle-Scarred instead of Well-Worn; ★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Case Hardened: Battle-Scarred instead of Well-Worn; ★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel: Battle-Scarred instead of Well-Worn; ★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Stained: Battle-Scarred instead of Well-Worn; ★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Case Hardened: Battle-Scarred instead of Well-Worn; StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Well-Worn): float at most 0.418669 instead of 0.404554; StatTrak™ FAMAS | Commemoration (Field-Tested): float at most 0.277058 instead of 0.230680
Craft 2448807 · The CS20 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit −12 843.02₽ · invest 24 648.60₽
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Blue Steel: Battle-Scarred instead of Well-Worn; ★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Stained: Battle-Scarred instead of Well-Worn; ★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Case Hardened: Battle-Scarred instead of Well-Worn; ★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel: Battle-Scarred instead of Well-Worn; ★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Stained: Battle-Scarred instead of Well-Worn; ★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Case Hardened: Battle-Scarred instead of Well-Worn; StatTrak™ FAMAS | Commemoration (Field-Tested): float at most 0.277058 instead of 0.230680; StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Well-Worn): float at most 0.418669 instead of 0.404554

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Shadow Collection + The CS20 Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 26 outcomes

More

How to build