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The Falchion Collection + The Overpass 2024 Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +334.94₸

Invest 2 051.89₸

Average return 2 386.83₸

ROI +16.3%

Chance of profit 66%

With float: invest at least 4 868.77 ₸, profit at most −2 481.94 ₸

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

P90 | Elite Build

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0746

279.67 ₸

at 279.67

Steam

×5

Glock-18 | Teal Graf

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0746

698.91 ₸

at 139.78

Steam

×4

Glock-18 | Teal Graf

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0040

1 073.31 ₸

at 268.33

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 2 051.89 ₸ +334.94 (+16.3%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

P90 | Elite Build

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0747

279.67 ₸

at 279.67

Steam

×1

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0041

376.34 ₸

at 376.34

Steam

×5

Glock-18 | Teal Graf

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0747

698.91 ₸

at 139.78

Steam

×3

Glock-18 | Teal Graf

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0041

804.98 ₸

at 268.33

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 2 159.90 ₸ +169.30 (+7.8%)

What you get 8 outcomes

Profitable outcome 64%
Losing outcome 34%
About break-even 2%

at a loss

AUG | Eye of Zapems

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.072560

1 894.64 ₸ 30.00%

Steam

in profit

Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

3 263.59 ₸ 30.00%

Steam

in profit

XM1014 | Monster Melt

Factory New

float up to 0.064024

3 275.25 ₸ 30.00%

Steam

in profit

FAMAS | Neural Net

Factory New

float up to 0.051219

2 912.46 ₸ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

P2000 | Handgun

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.085365

896.49 ₸ 2.00%

Steam

in profit

best

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo

Factory New

float up to 0.044390

4 039.91 ₸ 2.00%

Steam

about break-even

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

float up to 0.042682

2 390.27 ₸ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

float up to 0.183536

502.14 ₸ 2.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Overpass 2024 Collection

Variant 2 The Militia Collection instead of The Overpass 2024 Collection Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Overpass 2024 Collection Variant 4 The Operation Broken Fang Collection instead of The Overpass 2024 Collection Variant 5 The Prisma Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 6 The Prisma Collection instead of The Overpass 2024 Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −33.39 ₸ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +188.65 ₸ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Overpass 2024 Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 6 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2490332 · The Overpass 2024 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 365.13₸ · invest 2 004.04₸
rare inputs

XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear) instead of P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear)
Craft 2490213 · The Overpass 2024 Collection + The Prisma Collection · profit 364.83₸ · invest 2 004.47₸
MAC-10 | Whitefish (Minimal Wear) instead of P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear)
Craft 2476058 · The Danger Zone Collection + The Overpass 2024 Collection · profit 363.96₸ · invest 1 922.32₸
SG 553 | Danger Close (Minimal Wear) instead of P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear); Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074898 instead of 0.074647; Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New): float at most 0.004286 instead of 0.004066
Craft 2483772 · The Gamma Collection + The Overpass 2024 Collection · profit 361.91₸ · invest 1 985.87₸
rare inputs

P250 | Iron Clad (Minimal Wear) instead of P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear); Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076926 instead of 0.074647; Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New): float at most 0.006060 instead of 0.004066
Craft 2490184 · The Overpass 2024 Collection + The Phoenix Collection · profit 359.74₸ · invest 2 042.43₸
rare inputs

UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear) instead of P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear); Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076787 instead of 0.074647; Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New): float at most 0.005939 instead of 0.004066
Craft 2490196 · The Overpass 2024 Collection + The Prisma 2 Collection · profit 353.45₸ · invest 1 922.86₸
MP5-SD | Desert Strike (Minimal Wear) instead of P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear)

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Overpass 2024 Collection

How to build i Ways to build 3 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 8 outcomes

More

How to build