The Wildfire Collection + The Dead Hand Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit +425.87$

Invest 909.23$

Average return 1 335.10$

ROI +46.8%

Chance of profit 69%

With float: invest at least 2 131.05 $, profit at most −795.95 $

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 4.6% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −527.72 $

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

0% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×1

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0121

94.01 $

at 94.01

Steam

×4

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0121

815.21 $

at 203.80

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 909.23 $ +425.87 (+46.8%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 9.2% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −71 $

0% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×2

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0110

188.03 $

at 94.01

Steam

×3

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0110

611.41 $

at 203.80

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 799.44 $ +280.50 (+35.1%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 13.8% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −190 $

0% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×3

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0101

282.04 $

at 94.01

Steam

×2

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0101

407.61 $

at 203.80

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 689.64 $ +135.13 (+19.6%)

What you get 35 outcomes

Profitable outcome 69%
Losing outcome 23%
About break-even 4%
Above the Steam cap 5%

Order

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Brocade Crane

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 345.03 $ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Brocade Flowers

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

2 026.95 $ 3.64%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Dragon Fists

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 710.85 $ 3.64%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Garden

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 208.36 $ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Hand Sweaters

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 504.86 $ 3.64%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Plum Quill

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

961.44 $ 3.64%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Seigaiha

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 175.66 $ 3.64%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Wave Chaser

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 723.31 $ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Lime Polycam

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 601.91 $ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Cloud Chaser

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 520.80 $ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Blackbook

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 519.79 $ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Chocolate Chesterfield

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

861.79 $ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

best

★ Specialist Gloves | Pillow Punchers

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

4 730.70 $ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Sunburst

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 440.88 $ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Big Swell

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 418.78 $ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Violet Beadwork

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 416.13 $ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Frosty

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 488.33 $ 3.64%

price without deals

Steam

about break-even

★ Sport Gloves | Blaze

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

887.13 $ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Sport Gloves | Creme Pinstripe

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

760.39 $ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Red Racer

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 390.00 $ 3.64%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Ultra Violent

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

4 420.46 $ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Occult

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 742.18 $ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

220.36 $ 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

246.01 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

296.83 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ Bowie Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

1 455.57 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

1 107.35 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

212.21 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

381.41 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

203.02 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

418.02 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Bowie Knife

no wear

111.79 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Wildfire Collection + The Dead Hand Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Dead Hand Collection Variant 4 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 5 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Dead Hand Collection Variant 6 The Phoenix Collection instead of The Dead Hand Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +415.68 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +421.23 $ historical median

7% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Dead Hand Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 9 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2495631 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Breakout Collection · profit 465.50$ · invest 1 058.73$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.011261 instead of 0.012146
Craft 2495633 · The Breakout Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 465.50$ · invest 1 058.73$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.011261 instead of 0.012146
Craft 2496209 · The eSports 2013 Winter Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 429.51$ · invest 960.44$
sale unreliable no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly float cannot be reached rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.009213 instead of 0.012146
Craft 2496211 · The Dead Hand Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection · profit 429.51$ · invest 960.44$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.009213 instead of 0.012146
Craft 2496145 · The Prisma Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 427.58$ · invest 903.78$
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.012446 instead of 0.012146
Craft 2496149 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Prisma Collection · profit 427.58$ · invest 903.78$
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.012446 instead of 0.012146
Craft 2496197 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 425.87$ · invest 909.23$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 2496123 · The Operation Broken Fang Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 423.60$ · invest 1 036.46$
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.012146
Craft 2496126 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Operation Broken Fang Collection · profit 423.60$ · invest 1 036.46$
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.012146

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Wildfire Collection + The Dead Hand Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 35 outcomes

More

How to build